Everyone with a little common sense would know Splatoon will easily outsell TW101.

- It's actually being advertised.

- It's not super niche like TW101.

- It has online multiplayer.

- It's made by Nintendo.

- It had an online demo before release.

- It had its own Nintendo Direct.

- There are Splatoon amiibo.

- There's a Wii U bundle with Splatoon.

- It's doing well on Amazon in the USA and Japan.

I think it will outsell the W101, but I think people are being incredibly unrealistic talking about 2 or 3 million lifetime.

That said; none of the above correlates with guaranteed great sales, and I still don't think it will perform great. But I do consider myself as someone possessing above average levels of common sense.
Do you believe it can sell 2-3 million? If so, is that based on your list above?

Only time will tell but I have yet to see or hear anything that suggests that this will be a huge seller and I continue to believe that Xenoblade will sell more lifetime.

I really doubt it will even reach 2 million.
But you never know.

I'll be happy if it sells over one million. That's what I expect. That's a success on the Wii U.

No way, it will be even hard to sell 1.5M!

Yeah, 1 million would be great! I think it has the potential for 1 million but I fear it won't reach it, it has a rather challenging task at hand in balancing between customers who enjoy shooter elements and people who are more prone to more "innocent" gameplay.
I've seen some claim that the fact that it is unique is a major selling point, but when it comes to shooters fans; unique concepts are at the very bottom of their list of preferences, if sales charts are anything to go by, that is.
There should be a decent sized core following who will enjoy Splatoon and I think this might be a title that sells more digital copies as well, due to its more online-based nature.

Not every game will have animal crossing succes story.  It might be a hit but I don't think Nintendo will advertised the game heavily as it should.  Even if it sells 700k-1m, it should be consider a success and may open the opportunity to expand the franchise for further sequels.

I agree with you on this^

As for advertising, its actually being pushed, which is something Unfortunately Nintendo doesn't do much. That said, its beung pushed but not as much as it should imo.

Im betting 1mil+ Shipped+Digital before 2016. I be extremely happy with 1.5mil, but thats yet to be seen.

Animal Crossing did it, so sure it's possible.

This, and adding this to:

-Colorful, non-violent (no blood) shooter game, that will fit perfectly on Nintendo console that lacks any kind of shooters

-Very positive reactions from Demo

-Very Fun gameplay, this will affect on good word of mouth

Personaly I would be very suuprised if dont sell 1m, for me this is 1-2m game.