This strikes me as the kind of game that, if marketed on channels like Cartoon Network and Nick, could be a major hit... I can't imagine this wouldn't appeal to kids with the gameplay/look/music.

I feel like Microsoft and Sony would make this a much bigger hit than nintendo will, even assuming they'd all sold the same number of consoles. It would be so easy to market.

I think so. Nintendo seem to be keen on promoting it, which will help. It's hard to say because it's a new IP and thus it's pretty much untested, but if nothing else I think it can hit 1M within 12-18 months, maybe less.

You're low balling it hardcore, mate.

Games that have sold in the range you describe on Wii U include The Wonderful 101 and Sonic Lost World. Do you really expect that a major first party title will sell in the same ballpark as those games?

I would be surprised if it did

I think about 1.2m but if Nintendo market it well it could possibly reach 2m LT, Nintendo said they want Splatoon to be to TPS what MK is to racers and Smash is to fighters, it certainly has that unique style to get it going and it's been received quite well by people who have seen it.

Even if it doesn't right away, it will after it is remastered for the Nintendo NX.