Unify as soon as possible i say, i only buy Nintendo to play Nintendo, so the less hardware i have to buy the better.
| Scisca said: Personally I don't mind it. I only use Nintendo consoles to play exclusives at this point, as Nintendo made sure that multiplats suck on their platforms. The more Nintendo games I get on a single platform, the better for me then. It's a whole different thing though when you think what's better for Nintendo. One thing is certain, they have to change what they have been doing the last 10 years. At this point they are between a rock and a hard place. On one hand mobile is destroying their handheld market - I'm 100% sure their next handheld won't get anywhere near 3DS sales. On the other Sony and MS pretty much eliminated them from the home console market (though in reality it was Nintendo that made itself redundant). Now they somehow have to save themselves, they either need to pick up the glove of Sony/MS or do something different that will work this time. Making games for only one platform is a must if they keep on ditching 3rd parties. If I was them I'd just make a regular console that would get 3rd party support and a Vita-level handheld with easy porting, that would get all Nintendo software. Unfortunately I'm afraid they won't deliver on the power front due to this whole Fusion concept, which will forever force them to the role of "the second, less important console". |
Take this into account
NES-61 million, Game & Watch-43 million
SNES-49 million, Gameboy (89-96)-54 million
N64-33 million, Gameboy (97-03)-64 million
GC-22 million, GB Advance-81 million
So thru 4 generations, Nintendo was averaging about 100 million units of hardware with about 500 million units of software. The breakdown per region has also been pretty consistant, Americas-50m, Japan-25m, Others-25m, give or take a few million. The price point for each of these generations has always been pretty consistant.
1988, NES-$99.99, G&W-$19.99 each
1993, SNES-$129.99, Gameboy-$89.99
1998, N64-$129.99, Gameboy Color-$69.99
2003, GC-$99.99, GBA SP-$99.99
Adjusted for inflation, in each of these generations it was about $300 to get both pieces of Nintendo hardware. Now let's compare sales and price of these to 3DS/Wii U
Wii U-9 million (15m lifetime), 3DS-51 million (65m lifetime)
So currently they are about 60 million and will sell roughly 80 million lifetime, it will be something like 25-30 million per major region so Japan/Others in line with former generations but a pretty big decline in Americas.
New 3DS XL-$199.99, Wii U-$299.99, currently it's about $500 to get both pieces of Nintendo hardware. Is it a coincidence that in the Americas it costs about 40% more to get Nintendo hardware and that sales will be down about 40% as well? I think not.
A huge market for Nintendo has historically been American children so raising the cost of entry has significantly hurt sales among that demographic. Going forward, Nintendo needs to make it around $300 or so to get the full Nintendo experience.
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
The AMD Carrizo as mentioned earlier in the thread, is a great example of what Ninty may opt for.
http://www.cpu-world.com/news_2015/2015032101_Model_numbers_of_AMD_Carrizo-L_APUs_spotted.html
You have the Carrizo-L (low power) that can run from 10-25 W, and the reg. Carrizo that runs 15- 35W. Seems like the perfect "big brother - little brother" chips for NX's home-portable versions. Another site states the Carrizo will feature 8 cus and 512 stream processors, which is just shy of XB1 (12 cu, 768 sp). http://wccftech.com/amd-officially-shows-carrizo-apu-sample-chip-carrizol-carrizo-apus-planned-1h-2015/
| Soundwave said: I don't even know if Nintendo has much of a choice. |
I think the mobile market is forcing Ninty's next HH to be HD (worst case being qHD or vita res.), which also means Nintendo will now reach a point of convergence for game development. Its hard to imagine Nintendo going for PS4 level HW (not needed with no 3rd party), so it seems rather obvious they will go a little above Wii U, satisfying the ambitious Zelda creators and maybe next 3D mario. The real jump will be for the NX HH.
The HH-console gap is shrinking (in Ninty's eyes) and considering the logistics of their company, the Fusion is a great solution to all their development problems.
| se7en7thre3 said: The AMD Carrizo as mentioned earlier in the thread, is a great example of what Ninty may opt for. http://www.cpu-world.com/news_2015/2015032101_Model_numbers_of_AMD_Carrizo-L_APUs_spotted.html You have the Carrizo-L (low power) that can run from 10-25 W, and the reg. Carrizo that runs 15- 35W. Seems like the perfect "big brother - little brother" chips for NX's home-portable versions. Another site states the Carrizo will feature 8 cus and 512 stream processors, which is just shy of XB1 (12 cu, 768 sp). http://wccftech.com/amd-officially-shows-carrizo-apu-sample-chip-carrizol-carrizo-apus-planned-1h-2015/ |
10-25W is way more than Tegra K1 and that SoC could only be used in tablets because the consumption was too high. These APUs can't be used in a device as small as a handheld.
They should try to do what Sony and MS have been doing for more than a decade and just release a console that's on par with the horsepower of competitor by a good price and with 3rd party support. PS4 is the most basic console and that's what people want.
Launching a console that's weaker than a PS4 is simply stupid. They already did that. Doing the same thing twice in a gen would be beyond Sega-levels of bad decisions. NX is 3DS sucessor.
What would be the effect on 3rd party if Nintendo tries the Fusion idea with a power similar to the PS4 or just a bit stronger? Would they port a lot of old games to profit from their handheld market, would they try and make new games for the console, would they ignore the system...?
| torok said: 10-25W is way more than Tegra K1 and that SoC could only be used in tablets because the consumption was too high. These APUs can't be used in a device as small as a handheld. ---------------- They should try to do what Sony and MS have been doing for more than a decade and just release a console that's on par with the horsepower of competitor by a good price and with 3rd party support. PS4 is the most basic console and that's what people want. |
Its a mobile apu that is touting efficiency battery & life so idk http://www.tweaktown.com/articles/6989/amd-carrizo-performance-mobile-apu-excavator-core-preview/index.html
We'd all love as much power as possible, but that is not Nintendo's way. The whole point of Fusion is to rely less on 3rd parties more than ever, which also means high specs not necessary. Believe me I wanted Wii U to emulate the 360, take advantage of the 1 yr headstart and have a true next gen console (XB1-PS4 specs) but they went low power + gimmick again, I'm afraid that after 2 straight gens the 3rd party ship has sailed. 3rd party will be a bonus done on Ninty's terms, so if Fusion is a huge success, they will come crawling.
Darwinianevolution said:
Well, people said that about the Wii motion controlls as well. With the moble technology evolving as fast as it does, we could really be surprised with the power of the next handheld. |
Mobile performance still has to respect the laws of physics and some basic computing rules like Moore's Law. The best mobile tech in 2015 is Tegra X1 and even that's a stretch because it's only available in a micro console and not in a tablet. It isn't on par with PS360 yet, but fairly close. The most powerful SoC used on a tablet is Tegra K1. It is less powerfull than X1. They have beefy GPUs but lack memory bandwidth and specially CPU power.
From Moore's Law, we would need 2/1.5 years to double the processing power, with the memory bandwidth increasing slowly because there is the memory wall. With consoles consumption around 150W and mobile limited to 10W we have a 15X difference that puts a 6-8 years gap in power between these devices, aligned with the comparisons between Tegra X1 and the 8 year old tech on PS360. Wii U uses a 2009 GPU with some custom improvements so we could consider it a 2010 level GPU. That means that they will probably have a tablet ready SoC that's similar in power only in 2018.
| se7en7thre3 said: Its a mobile apu that is touting efficiency battery & life so idk http://www.tweaktown.com/articles/6989/amd-carrizo-performance-mobile-apu-excavator-core-preview/index.html We'd all love as much power as possible, but that is not Nintendo's way. The whole point of Fusion is to rely less on 3rd parties more than ever, which also means high specs not necessary. Believe me I wanted Wii U to emulate the 360, take advantage of the 1 yr headstart and have a true next gen console (XB1-PS4 specs) but they went low power + gimmick again, I'm afraid that after 2 straight gens the 3rd party ship has sailed. 3rd party will be a bonus done on Ninty's terms, so if Fusion is a huge success, they will come crawling. |
It's touting efficiency for an ultrabook. It uses 30 watts. That would burn a tablet or give it a 2 hour battery-life. I think that, if they want an unified console or simply a powerful handheld, they will have it from Nvidia with a Tegra SoC. But they won't beat the Wii U in power with that.
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