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Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction - Halo 5 will sell more in 2015 than Uncharted 4 lifetime

DexInDaJungle said:
kristianity77 said:
Hang on, people are stating that Uncharted needs to sell 7 million in its lifetime based on what the Halo series sold on a console that at the time all 3 were released, had a significantly amount more consoles in the wild, really?

People seem to be forgetting that by the time Halo 5 hits, the Xbox will have what...15 million consoles worldwide? Halo 5, no matter how good it is, will not hit the sales of the previous ones simply because the userbase this time around is a hell of a lot smaller.


The Xbox 360 had around 13m consoles sold in November of 2007 when Halo 3 launched. Similar numbers.

Edit: This site really needs a multi quote button.

True, but like others have said its a series on the decline.  Halo 3 sold the most on the lowest install base.  Followed by Reach and then Halo 4 being the lowest (when there were the most consoles sold)

Halo MCC has hardly done anything to address that either, suggesting "around" a 17-18% attach rate for what in halo terms is probably the best deal money can buy!

To beat Uncharted, the attach rate would likely have to be at least double that to stand a chance.  your looking at probably 40%, or 2 in 5 people buying it.  That would mean Halo 5 would have to technically sell more than any other Halo in terms of ratio than before.  Never going to happen.



PREDICTIONS FOR END OF 2015: (Made Jan 1st 2015)

PS4 - 34M - XB1 - 21m - WII U -12M

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JayWood2010 said:
Possible. Halo 4 and Halo Reach sold 7 million their opening year.

Halo 4 - 7.1m
Halo Reach 7m
Halo 3 - 6.8m

So if Halo 5 has a similar opening as them then maybe if if Uncharted doesnt grow


Uncharted 2 sits at 6.57

Uncharted 3 sits at 6.64

There is a slight margin in sales, but nothing wide enough to say one series "completely dominate" the other, I am not sure where some got this idea, maybe this is very USA centric again...

The Last of Us had sold over 7 million copies back in July, just on the PS3! (before the PS4 re-release)

I would say that given the generally improving sales (and reception) of the Naughty Dog games, compared to the general dismay in regards to 343i's output, everything points to people buying more Uncharted 4 over Halo 5 (a lot will get both?)



A quick side note; there are some posts that are on the edge of what is acceptable here, let's pay attention to what we're writing and focus on arguments rather than poster. Disagree all you want but no attacks on posters.
Consider this a public warning.



Well you have to think when Halo 5 releases the XONE would have probably sold around 14-15 million. With Exclusives on the new systems not exactly coming out every which way but where, Halo 5 could easy sell 7 Million launch week. Also I think Halo is a bigger franchise to most gamers .it's a game that would get mentioned in Tabloid news papers and non gaming blogs. Much like GTA . Uncharted is a a niche kind of slightly on rails type of game from past episodes . i have encountered. Uncharted does not have the clout behind it ,it's not a name in general gaming .it seems only relevant to Sony Gamers. Halo is a game Sony gamers have been craving for since Day one when launched on original XBOX.

So because of this i fell Halo 5 will will wipe the floor with Uncharted in the sales department. Regardless if Uncharted releases in 2015 or even early 2016 when the PS4 install base will be even bigger.

I reckon it's possible for a Halo 5 to sell to 60 -70 % of the Xbox One install base when you consider that the first game was selling at launch to 50 % of Xbox Owners .And this increased with Halo 2.

I can't see Uncharted selling to more then 30 % of the install base of PS4 , i would be surprised.

Also Halo is a game people track down later in a games cycle ,some one who buys a XBOX one in three years will probably want to get Halo 5 play it before playing Halo 6 or 7.

Anyone buying a PS4 in three years will look over Uncharted 4 . Halo is a long term seller ,it has legs



BRKITG

kristianity77 said:
DexInDaJungle said:


The Xbox 360 had around 13m consoles sold in November of 2007 when Halo 3 launched. Similar numbers.

Edit: This site really needs a multi quote button.

True, but like others have said its a series on the decline.  Halo 3 sold the most on the lowest install base.  Followed by Reach and then Halo 4 being the lowest (when there were the most consoles sold)

Halo MCC has hardly done anything to address that either, suggesting "around" a 17-18% attach rate for what in halo terms is probably the best deal money can buy!

To beat Uncharted, the attach rate would likely have to be at least double that to stand a chance.  your looking at probably 40%, or 2 in 5 people buying it.  That would mean Halo 5 would have to technically sell more than any other Halo in terms of ratio than before.  Never going to happen.

I don't think we can really use MCC as an example. It's a remaster of 4 games that most who own an Xbox One already own via other platforms. Not to mention the rocky first few months with the broken multiplayer.

I'm not saying it's gonna happen or that it's even likely to happen but if I've learned one thing over the years it's never to underestimate the passion FPS fans have for their games. We also have no idea how things like E3 or the Windows 10 launch will affect things. I mean if Microsoft has an amazing E3 and Windows 10 is an absolute hit, these things could easily play a factor in getting more people on board the Xbox One train which ultimately means more sales for the bigger franchises.

If I were a betting man, I'd say no it's not gonna happen. I expect UC4 to sell very well, especially with it coming out in the Spring where it pretty much has the market to itself. Still, there is a small part of me that thinks it's possible.



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BruB said:
Well you have to think when Halo 5 releases the XONE would have probably sold around 14-15 million. With Exclusives on the new systems not exactly coming out every which way but where, Halo 5 could easy sell 7 Million launch week. Also I think Halo is a bigger franchise to most gamers .it's a game that would get mentioned in Tabloid news papers and non gaming blogs. Much like GTA . Uncharted is a a niche kind of slightly on rails type of game from past episodes . i have encountered. Uncharted does not have the clout behind it ,it's not a name in general gaming .it seems only relevant to Sony Gamers. Halo is a game Sony gamers have been craving for since Day one when launched on original XBOX.

So because of this i fell Halo 5 will will wipe the floor with Uncharted in the sales department. Regardless if Uncharted releases in 2015 or even early 2016 when the PS4 install base will be even bigger.

I reckon it's possible for a Halo 5 to sell to 60 -70 % of the Xbox One install base when you consider that the first game was selling at launch to 50 % of Xbox Owners .And this increased with Halo 2.

I can't see Uncharted selling to more then 30 % of the install base of PS4 , i would be surprised.

Also Halo is a game people track down later in a games cycle ,some one who buys a XBOX one in three years will probably want to get Halo 5 play it before playing Halo 6 or 7.

Anyone buying a PS4 in three years will look over Uncharted 4 . Halo is a long term seller ,it has legs


But, if Halo 5 sells to around 60-70% of the userbase as you have guessed in just 2015 (which in itself is very very unlikely) and Uncharted only sells to 30% of PS4 owners (as you have guessed) then Uncharted wins over its lifespan...

Whether Halo 5 has longer legs is by the by, as the prediction is just for sales in 2015 of Halo, compared to Uncharteds lifetime sales.



PREDICTIONS FOR END OF 2015: (Made Jan 1st 2015)

PS4 - 34M - XB1 - 21m - WII U -12M

alabtrosMyster said:


Im not saying it is or isnt.  Im saying its possible.  Halo 3, 4, and Reach all did it.  Uncharted is a very heavily bundled game too




       

BruB said:
Well you have to think when Halo 5 releases the XONE would have probably sold around 14-15 million. With Exclusives on the new systems not exactly coming out every which way but where, Halo 5 could easy sell 7 Million launch week. Also I think Halo is a bigger franchise to most gamers .it's a game that would get mentioned in Tabloid news papers and non gaming blogs. Much like GTA . Uncharted is a a niche kind of slightly on rails type of game from past episodes . i have encountered. Uncharted does not have the clout behind it ,it's not a name in general gaming .it seems only relevant to Sony Gamers. Halo is a game Sony gamers have been craving for since Day one when launched on original XBOX.

So because of this i fell Halo 5 will will wipe the floor with Uncharted in the sales department. Regardless if Uncharted releases in 2015 or even early 2016 when the PS4 install base will be even bigger.

I reckon it's possible for a Halo 5 to sell to 60 -70 % of the Xbox One install base when you consider that the first game was selling at launch to 50 % of Xbox Owners .And this increased with Halo 2.

I can't see Uncharted selling to more then 30 % of the install base of PS4 , i would be surprised.

Also Halo is a game people track down later in a games cycle ,some one who buys a XBOX one in three years will probably want to get Halo 5 play it before playing Halo 6 or 7.

Anyone buying a PS4 in three years will look over Uncharted 4 . Halo is a long term seller ,it has legs

1: 60-70% attatch rate would be insane, and unheard of, especially for a fifth main installment of a series that has changed developers and suffered a decline in sales from its high point, not to mention sheer fatigue due to this being the 14th Halo game releasing, versus UC4 being the 5th.

2: Even if UC 4 "only" sells to 30% of the PS4's installed base at the time of release, that would likely be well over 10 million so that's an entirely moot point.

3: The UC games have great legs, I bought all of them about two or three years after they launched and the charts showed them moving really well for a long time, heck; our very own numbers show that the Halo series is clearly more front-loaded than the UC series. UC2 sold around 880k week one and has 6.6 million sales lifetime, UC3 sold 1.3 million week one and has lifetime sales at around 6.6 million as well while Halo 3 sold 3.8 million week one, 12 million lifetime, Halo Reach sold 3.7 million week one and around 9.7 million lifetime and Halo 4 sold 3.6 million week one and 9.4 million lifetime.

UC2 sold almost 200k last year after being on the market for six years while Halo Reach sold slightly less despite being on the market one year shorter. UC3 sold about 310k last year in its fourth year on the market and Reach about 255k in its fourth year on the market. This is really not an argument that works here.

A lot of people buying a PS4 in three years will get UC4 Platinum for 15$ and likely enjoy it a great deal and if developing trends are anything to go by; a larger portion of potential Halo buyers will avoid buying Halo 5, the figures are right above these lines.

PS: "With Exclusives on the new systems not exactly coming out every which way but where, Halo 5 could easy sell 7 Million launch week." The whole "exclusives are rare" argument works for the PS4 as well and 7 million sales "easy" sales in the launch week is an utter fever dream at best; that would be about twice as much as the biggest Halo launches in the past, there is not an iota of data or reasoning to be found behind such a claim.



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