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Forums - Sales - February 2015 NPD Thread! 3DS: 395k, PS4: 342k, XBO: 276k, WiiU: 96k

Nate4Drake said:

You were right.  And March will be the same, maybe even bigger Gap ?

I've gone for 135k - 145k.

It's risky but I'm assuming the XB1 sales will go down and the PS4 sales will go up. No Titanfall and free Titanfall bundles and three big titles that will sell PS4s, one of which is a multiplat but currently selling on Amazon likes it's a PS4 exclusive.

March is also a 5 week month. 400k + for the PS4 and around 300k for the XB1.

XB1 300k - 310k?
PS4 440k - 450k?

No idea. I seem better at predicting gaps than I am at predicting actual sales.



 

The PS5 Exists. 


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ReimTime said:
SWORDF1SH said:
Intrinsic said:

Just get this, the only thing that could stop or delay Sony from dropping the price is if from their internal projections they realize they wouldn't be able to meet demand. 

This is ultimately not about making more from each console unit sold, or about "selling more" than the XB1, its about increasing your user base as quickly as possible. Look at it this way, If Sony sells 15M PS4s this year at $400 or 20M if they drop the price to $300 at some point, those extra 5M gives their overall user base a massive boost. Those are 5M more people to sell games to or buy PS+ sub's. Basically, they stand more to gain getting as many consoles out there rather than making a profit on each console sold but selling less of them. 

Of course install base is important but thet have to find that balance.

Using your example (I know it's a very loose example) and persuming they make $50 on each console (probably not, maybe more)

15M at $400 with $50 profit = $750M profit

20M at $350 with no profit = $0 profit

20M at $300 with $50 loss = $1B loss

So by having a $100 price cut they would have to make back $1.75B. So in this case it wouldn't be smart to drop price. PS Plus and software sales will never sell enough to make the difference up.

Again these are very very rough figures but the outcome is always the same. Sell less at higher profit or more for less profit but you will only want to cut price if the end results means making more profit.

Yes but production costs fall as a console generation goes on. Materials become cheaper and manufacturing can always be placed more heavily on companies like Foxconn. I don't think they'd lose out too badly on a price cut, and I agree with intrinsic that an install base is very important

Wrong. Not matter how much you make or lose off of a console you still have $100 less if you cut it by $100.

2 years from now if it was still $400 and they made $200 per consoles and sold 15M a year;

15M at $400 with $200 profit = $3B profit

20M at $300 with $100 profit = $2B profit

You have to make $1B to make up what you lose. (BTW I think a $100 pricecut will boost it a lot more than 5M. Then you have to consider can they manufacture enough to take advantage of pricecut)

 

Sony have to weigh up if cutting the price is worth it.

The average customers spends so much a year so the sooner they get customers the more years you will have them spending. If they project to gain more from a price cut they will do it. But for that to happen the price cut will have to boost sales enough to make it worth it.



This may be the trend for the entire generation. Micro wins the two big months nov and dec, and sony makes up for it and then some with the remaining 10 months. This would make closing the gap difficult. Adding in Sony has worldwide locked, it really would just be icing on the cake to win the US.



Thanks jlmurph!

BreedinBull said:
This may be the trend for the entire generation. Micro wins the two big months nov and dec, and sony makes up for it and then some with the remaining 10 months. This would make closing the gap difficult. Adding in Sony has worldwide locked, it really would just be icing on the cake to win the US.

And that's exactly what Sony think too. I said right at the very start of this generation that Sony would be happy with drawing in the US. The rest of the world makes it an easy win. because it appears as if Sony will slowly pull away in the US (over this gen) I can say with confidence that it's over as far as 'winning' for MS.



 

The PS5 Exists. 


so VGChart is undertracking the ps Vita every month confirmed? what i wonder is why they don't make PS vita adjusment after official numbers are revealed



                                               

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Intrinsic said:
SWORDF1SH said:

Of course install base is important but thet have to find that balance.

Using your example (I know it's a very loose example) and persuming they make $50 on each console (probably not, maybe more)

15M at $400 with $50 profit = $750M profit

20M at $350 with no profit = $0 profit

20M at $300 with $50 loss = $1B loss

So by having a $100 price cut they would have to make back $1.75B. So in this case it wouldn't be smart to drop price. PS Plus and software sales will never sell enough to make the difference up.

Again these are very very rough figures but the outcome is always the same. Sell less at higher profit or more for less profit but you will only want to cut price if the end results means making more profit.

Well if you wanna be anal about it :), let's see...

What we know is that as of Feb last year Sony announced they were making a profit on hardware and went on to say that their focus is on market growth not hardware profitability. This suggests that they are willing to slash prices to increase market share rather than make as much as they can make from hardware. But let's do some loose math. 

 

  • At launch the PS4 BOM was ~$381 but extremely high demand meant they had to air freight shipments which would have resulted to a unit cost of over $400 for them. when demand stabilized, this problem goes away. 
  • As it stands, 15M@$400*$50 profit = $750M (this would meanthe BOM of PS4 is now at around $340 cause the retailer gets around $10-$20/console sold. 
  • By sept-dec, and to allow a price drop there will be a console internal revision, which would bring the BOM down to at least $320 or less. Remember Sony is a hardware company at heart, this is their thing, if anyone can get costs down by better engineered hardware its them. 
  • So 20M@$300*$30 loss= $600M loss in hardware. Yh, looks bad I know.
Now let's look at the benefits. 
  • Potential 38M-40M user base by end of 2015 as opposed to 33M-35M, basically around a 20% increase in potential user base.
  • That means, more games sold, more extra controllers bought, more PS+ subscriptions, more "obvious choice" third party support and benefits, harder for competitions to buy 3rd party support....etc
  • To put things in perspective, take two very popular 3rd party games for instance as a worst case scenario base; Next COD and MGS5. If those games sell 10M between them on a 40M install base (low balling it here) and Sony makes $15 per game sold, that's a profit of $150M. From just two games. 
  • If you extrapolate and take into consideration first party games, digital sales and all the other multiplatform games there, then you see the truth of the console "loss lewder" business model. There is more money to be made from taking a hit on hardware and selling more software. 
  • While Sony may lose $30 on every console they sell at $300, the business they get from every console sold comoketly negates that and gives them a profit overall. If a consumer buys a PS4 and then 2 games or a PS+ subscription, or one first party game, or an extra controller.... Sony has already broken even. 

 

And I agree with most of what you say. I did say Sony have to find a balance. Not being anal at all. I used hyporthetical figures to show that price cut can lose you money and not always the solution and if Sony project to make more that they lose from the extra install base they will do it. If the extra sales can make up what they lose through pricecut they will do it. Let not forget that (using hyporthetical figures again) those 15M will buy ps plus games etc anyway, what they lose through the pricecut will have to be made up through the 5M customers they gain.

Bolded part. You say that Sony will lose $30 at $300 but the reality is that they lose $100. If your figures are right, they could of made $70 per console but instead lose $30. That loses them $100.



Good hardware numbers all around if you ask me!



                
       ---Member of the official Squeezol Fanclub---

AZWification said:

Good hardware numbers all around if you ask me!

Yep, very healthy for the industry in general.



 

The PS5 Exists. 


Very good numbers all around.
To bad WiiU got so close to 100k not to pass it.
N3DS can be Said to be techncally a new console if some games only run on it in the future. But that wouldn't make a difference. The platform outsold ps4 for the month.
next week going again to USA, time to buy some games.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari said:

N3DS can be Said to be techncally a new console if some games only run on it in the future.


No it cant, GBC & DSi had exclusive titles that werent playable on previous models yet are still considered the same as GB & DS. N3DS is no different.

I know u don't mean any harm by that statement, but this point of view really needs to end because it is simply untrue.



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