September looks most likely to me. PlayStation Vue is going to have a huge positive impact on sales, along with the constant flow of exclusive titles in every region. I expect Sony to reveal a price cut at E3 to $299.99, and possibly even a new purchasing model with PlayStation Network services budled under a contract allowing people to walk out with a PS4 for $0 down. I think this year Sony is going to go for full throttle towards securing the Console/Set-top Box/Smart Box markets.

With a bit of common sense, you understand december is not possible, PS4 will without a doubt sell more in 2015 than in 2014, saying otherwise is really knowing nothing about the market.

2015 has much more big system seller than 2014, PS4 will have a much bigger year in Japan, and also a big exclusive system seller for the end of the year

I can't quite tell if this is serious, if it is well credit to you if that does happen.

?? It has nothing to do with the time of year people spend the most, it will be at 30 well before dec......If you noticed the DATA as you said you would know there is no way it takes ps4 until dec , it will have to be down a lot to take until dec, so take your own advice and look at the stats.

I'm not gonna attack your prediction, because anything really is possible.

But I do think December is a unlikely and a little late in the game - For instance, in 2014, on March 1st the PS4 was around 6.1 million units sold.  It took until roughly the first week of December to sell an additional 10 million. Extrapolate those parameters to what we have here - March 1st 2015, 20.2 million. We wamt to predict how long it will take to sell another 10 million.

Variables that will accelerate or decelerate sales:

- PSVue launch

- Chinese launch

- First official price cut

- Uncharted 4

- Various exclusives released through remained of year

- E3 hit or miss

To me, these variables suggest that we'll see more sales in 2015, not less. That's why hitting 30 million in December and not before is unlikely.  The price cut alone will accelerate scales like a turbocharger, that much i'm confident in.  If Sony announces a $100 price cut, we are realistically looking at "SOLD OUT" everywhere in the states, at least.

September is too soon. I'd say around Black Friday, so November. December is definitely not 'impossible', but even though it's still following last year's sales more or less, I'd expect it to pull away in the long run.

Then why don't you make it your life mission to "correctly inform" everyone on how wrong their predictions are?, for me it doesn't matter because it's merely a prediction based on how well they will sell within that one month.

I would advise you though to stop with me since you will go nowhere from where I stand.

It has nothing to do with thet ONE month, What are you even talking about, it is how long it will take for it to get to 30, if it takes until dec then PS4 will be down a lot and that is not happening.

Probably in November, sometime close to Black Friday

Don't be so sure about this...

I write a thread about this.

The market is change, and just because the other generation the second-third year was bigger than the first, that not mean that even in this gen will happen.

For example Vita peack was the first year... 3DS peack 2013, ok, but if you compared the sales with 2011, the sales are rise by just 1,000,000... 13m VS 14m

Wii U peack 2014 or 2015? dunno, but in 2014 the sales are rise by just 10%...

For be fast, in this generation, the first year is more important than in the last generation.

So, i think that PS4 will be up YOY, but is possible that will dropped.

Aaaaaaaaaaaand even if don't think that will pass 30,000,000 in December, is possible...