Why do people always post the under 2 million selling titles when they're making these kinds of comparisons?  Is it that some people think GTAIV is going to sell a million or so total on each console?

Assassin's Creed

360: 3.49 million
PS3: 2.33 million

That's a bit more of a difference than the two games you mentioned.  Show me just 1 game where the PS3 version outsold the 360 version by a million.

 What shocks me is that you're so willing to state something as fact without actually having anything to back it up.

Software figures for PS3 are under tracked on here I am certain PS3 has sold more.
I know for certain that the XBox 360 and Nintendo Wii hardware is over tracked, where as the PS3 hardware is under tracked.

 Agreed, but soccer games are popular in Japan as well and the rest of the world. Soccer is huge in South America and soccer games peform relatively better in North America (I guess also due to many immigrants from Europe and other parts of he world) than Madden games do in Europe/Japan/rest of the World.

Even with sales under 2 million I think the sales trends can be seen on those games much clearer than on games that  a) mostly / only appeal to US gamers - such as basketball, baseball, and football games b) are FPS-style games also available on the PC. GTAIV falls into neither category.

Assassin's Creed is arguably a good example of a game akin to GTAIV in terms of user appeal, but I think the difference between the two versions of GTAIV will be conciderably smaller. I base this assesment on the expectation of the game actually boosting the PS3 sales in Europe, and to some degree in the US, too. While the market for the 360 in the US is definately not satured yet, I think that there is not that much room for rapid growth for 360 sales at the time of this release, even with a price cut. On the other hand I think that more and more people are/will be interested in PS3 and the release of GTAIV will be another reason to make the purchase decision earlier.

It is likely that initially (the first month) the sales of GTAIV are bigger for the 360, but towards the rest of the year, the difference will become more narrow. By christmas, the difference might be somewhere between 0% to 10%.

I guess if anyone remembers this thread at the end of the year we should look at the numbers and see if they're within 0 to 10%...

And I took the bigger selling games like Call of Duty 4 and Assassin's Creed in my comparisons because I think the games that sell 5 or 6 million or whatever between platforms are the ones that would be far more likely to be similar to GTAIV than the games that sell under a million or barely over it.

Legend already pretty much took care of this post, but I'll point out that KZ2 is the sequel to a crap game and is more likely to NOT be AAA (90%+).  Resistance 2 is the sequel to a 'good' game but once again there is nothing to make this more likely to be AAA than Fable 2, BK3, Ninja Gaiden, Halo Wars, Halo Chronicles and Tales of Vesperia.  LBP is an original IP, so there is nothing to indicate it will be AAA.  It may look great, but its no more likely to be AAA than Too Human or Alan Wake.

@ Starcraft

Those who have seen Killzone 2 running on the PS3 have been blown away by this game. The PS3 is a lot more powerful for FPS games than the PS2 was for its time, also their dev team completely dwarfs the team which worked on Killzone 1.

Isnomniac has a friendly relationship with the company, their tech director has been at Guerilla to check out their tech and vice versa. Killzone1 wasn't even a bad game like you claim, it was pretty good for a PS2 FPS game which suffered mainly from:

IGN: "You're reading about a straightforward shooter limited by technology."

"Now even though playing Killzone is to be bombarded by bugs and glitches and technological inadequacies, the whole experience is definitely worth playing."

Judging from the public demonstrations gameplay and technology have seen major advancements. Just because Quake scored 65% on average for the Sega Saturn doesn't per se make the Quake 2 a bad game.

About all the things about software sales PS3vsXbox360:

CHECK THE USERBASE !!!

then u will understand PS3/Xbox360 are selling at a similar rate.

And remember this topic is about hardware sales, not softwares sales !!!

People were blown away by Lair as well.  The"friendly" relationship you speak of was suddenly brought up shortly after rumours of jealousy on Insomniac's partdut to differing budgets.  Furthermore, therehave been many rumours from different sources that mismanagment of Guerilla's vast KZ2 budget and human resources has led to the game being negatively affected.