@firefly
I accept all bets that accepted of course, I want as many avatars under my control as possible.

@intrinsic
They're right. the problem is that x1 will sell a huge amount during the holidays, and in that time, ps4 will lose it's 100% bonus.

basically, for every million that x1 sells, ps4 needs to sell 2m. The reason why my prediction seems so impossible is because people think it can't outsell that through the year. But it doesn't need to, because it can reach +100% at least once this year, but that will be gone by early holiday.

The problem also has to do with volume. Early in the year ps4 can easily do 4-1 several times.. but at only 30m total consoles combined, the bet is kind of skewed in my favor...because small numbers and a small total make bigger impacts. However, once christmas rolls around and ps4 and x1 have even just one week at 1m each, it erases many weeks of being 4-1 ratio.
ie, as the numbers get higher and higher, it gets harder and harder to acheive....until the point that one flatlines.

Yeah, it's actually a 68% advantage

You're right, that is what I'm predicting...and it's no mistake.
Perhaps a chicken will be a suitable avatar :D

im just kidding bud. It's a fine wager, and I'm pretty sure I'm going to lose. I'm just messing around. I do think it will be close though. Probably the closest chance sony has until end of the gen.

Outselling a system 2 to 1 isn't the same as outselling it 4 to 1, the ps4 didn't even manage to outsell wii u 4 to 1 for the whole of 2014. As for when ps4 will double xboxone's lifetime sales i predict that the xboxone will sell 65 m lifetime and ps4 110m so i don't think it ever will happen.

in both cases I used the XB1 as my 100% basis. the difference here is in what you believe the annual sales will be. 

But that's putting the PS4 at 30M sold to 20M sold at the end of 2015. Meaning you're suggesting that the PS4 will sell at least 2.3M less this year than it did las year. Don't see how that males sense. While I a, suggesting that that PS4 will sell at least 2.5M more this year than it did last year. So I expect the PS4 to be at at least 36-37M by the end of 2015. 

Either way I get where you are coming from, and for the most part I'm in agreement. I just feel that it will only be a matter of time, if the PS4 keeps doing 2:1+ sale years. 

How in the world are you guys going to decide who was right and who was wrong? MS is being excessively shy with its Xbone sell-through numbers and you're all assuming that VGC's #s are accurate, which many people on gaf are doubting. People on gaf are putting Xbone sell-through numbers at 9m - 9.5m.

Seriously, 11m sell-through for Xbone is bullcrap. No way Xbone is past 10m.

Meh, this is easy, and this is why:

Up to Sep last year the PS4 and XBO sold ~6m and 2.2m respectively, during this period the only real game of note to come to the PS4 was Infamous. Meanwhile XBO got Titanfall, whilst also getting a $100 price drop. This year XBO has neither of these, whilst PS4 has a LOT more. So whilst XBO MIGHT be up, it won't be up a great deal, whereas the PS4 is almost certain to be up. Personally I'm predicting the PS4 to hit 10m by September, whilst the XBO will only hit at an absolute maximum 3m, meaning the PS4 will have doubled the XBO sales. However more likely I expect 8m Ps4 and 2m XBO.

No. XB1 has decent traction now, and even though PS4 will inevitably stay ahead, it won't double it by September

Yea, not gonna happen. I don't really see it ever doubling it unless MS rolls over.

Just one question. How did you come to this conclusion? The numbers just don't add up.