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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Bloomberg: Nintendo’s Outlook Disappoints and Mario Can’t Save Wii U (Stock down 8.7%)

Lyrikalstylez said:
Nintendo lower the wii u to $200 and you might have a customer here!


You're one of the last people I'd expect to say that! :O



I predict NX launches in 2017 - not 2016

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haqqaton said:
SjOne said:


Nintendo consoles always sell worse than their predecessor. Wii is the only exception and that's because of a lightning in a bottle moment that can't be replicated.


Logically speaking, it makes no sense at all. Why that success can't be replicated?

It can be. But only if the stars and planets align and with the passage of time. Wii had 2 things which captoivated a non-gamer market and convinced them to buy a gaming console: motion controlled gaming and fitness (Wii Fit in particular). If Wii had merely been an improved Gamecube it would have tanked, like Gamecube. These non-gamers bought Wii, had heaps of fun, and maybe even got a bit fitter with it. But they are not repeat hardware customers. For lightning to strike a second time you basically need a whole new generation of non-gamers who were not around for the Wii craze and for Nintendo to produce something that attracts those non-gamers like the Wiimote and balance board did. It's not impossible but it's unlikely. You might think that just re-emphasising Wiimote will have that effect. But for all MS failed to capitalise on Kinect with the Xb one it is a piece of tech that is superior to Wiimote for non-gamers on a number of fronts. So Nintendo would have to find that inspiration somewhere else.

Meanwhile mainstream console gamers, who pretty much stuck with the Xbox/PS last gen with merely a shuffling of the deck chairs from gen 6 continue to be happy to keep on gaming with somewhat tweaked traditional controllers. And as repeat hardware customers they are staying with Xbox/PS in droves.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

The stock downward spike and drop in RSI makes me think this was a large robotic fear sell-off on stocks due to the overall poor trends from Nintendo's console hardware (both the aging 3DS and the struggling WiiU). Software trends and digital trends being up, however, mean that there are actually good income sources that aren't just coming from the exchange rate. Strong software sales are promising but they are limited by the WiiU's small audience, the 3DS is less limited and is actually selling software as expected (tie ratio) for a handheld. Its overall hardware numbers won't live up to the DS but times have changed and that era of sales is a bygone epoch.

Likely, soon, we're going to see a large buy-in from others either after the investors meeting or after the westeward launch of the N3DS hardware which will bolster its sales and new software figures from the titles coming in. So their stock being down, at this time, isn't much of an indicator until we see what comes up over the next few weeks and from the investor's meeting. In as of so far, the N3DS is showing the ability to stave off decline from 2014's numbers but its obviously (and no one should have expected it too) rekindled some raging flame. The same will likely be true in the west, especially if we see further sales push out the remainder of the OG stock.

tl;dr Its not all gloom, some positive trends are forming but, overall, Nintendo is still in rough waters. (Also NTDOY/F is likely going to be bullish for the near future term. So if you feel like trying to be Warren Buffet, you'd buy now, lol.)



Vena said:

The stock downward spike and drop in RSI makes me think this was a large robotic fear sell-off on stocks due to the overall poor trends from Nintendo's console hardware (both the aging 3DS and the struggling WiiU). Software trends and digital trends being up, however, mean that there are actually good income sources that aren't just coming from the exchange rate. Strong software sales are promising but they are limited by the WiiU's small audience, the 3DS is less limited and is actually selling software as expected (tie ratio) for a handheld. Its overall hardware numbers won't live up to the DS but times have changed and that era of sales is a bygone epoch.

3DS software forecast was just dropped by 6 million.  So while the Wii U forecast is up, overall it is mixed.  It's also not just the Wii/DS era that they aren't living up to.  At the equivalent time period from release the Gamecube shipped 47.37m software (versus a forecasted 25m for the Wii U) and the GBA shipped 84.57m (versus a forecasted 61m for the 3DS).



haqqaton said:
SjOne said:

If the almighty SNES couldn't outsell its predecessor, what makes you think Nintendo's next console has a chance of breaking the trend


It has a chance because IT'S NOT IMPOSSIBLE. It's pure logic. If something is possible then it can happen.

Look at this video. I think it sums up what I'm saying: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqdNe8u-Jsg  =D

I'm not saying they will make it. I don't even know what their plans are. But they did it once with Wii (against the odds) and I hope that they can do it once again for the sake of gaming industry.

EDIT: grammar correction


It's still highly IMPROBABLE of breaking he trend



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Bloomberg is so trollish lol



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Mario can't save Wii U? Is this report from last year? Or perhaps the year before that?



Yakuzaice said:

3DS software forecast was just dropped by 6 million.  So while the Wii U forecast is up, overall it is mixed.  It's also not just the Wii/DS era that they aren't living up to.  At the equivalent time period from release the Gamecube shipped 47.37m software (versus a forecasted 25m for the Wii U) and the GBA shipped 84.57m (versus a forecasted 61m for the 3DS).

Software is wonky and you have to look at digital returns. The rise of both WiiU software (retail) and digital revenue are a strong off-set for 3DS drop in retail software. The 3DS, in particular, would see the largest drops in retail title sales against rise in digital as it is more convenient and there are a lot more digital titles on the 3DS. The numbers are hard to disentangle but its fairly evident that there is revenue, growing but not overly strong, coming from software and digital that Nintendo is starting to cultivate.

At the end of the day, its not all just Abenomics and fluctuating dollar values. As I said, there are some good signs of recovery but the majority of their current fortunes are from favorable exchanges. In a way, Nintendo is lucky with the timing.

Also the GBA/Cube are poor comparisons as the Cube was 99$, and the GBA didn't have mobile competition. The 3DS simply exists in a completely new time from the DS/GBA/Gameboy, as we can see by the Vita being completely dead.



SjOne said:


It's still highly IMPROBABLE of breaking he trend


You got it. That's what I was saying.

But, funny thing is, the least Wii U sells, the more probable is that the next console surpass it.