The Xbox One is clearly overtracked. We know through official numbers that the PS4 had sold over 18.5 million to consumers by 4 January, and having only 500k PS4s and Xbones on store shelves is hardly reasonable.
IFireflyl said:
Everyone in this thread is making a point based on incomplete/inaccurate information. |
Not really. Most of us are taking this with caution and only speaking theoretically.
Aura7541 said:
Microsoft confirmed that by the end of 2013, the company sold 3 million X1's to consumers (this was also the last time MS used sold-to-consumers figures). Not long after, MS said that they shipped 3.9 million X1's. So there might have been 700-900K X1's still on shelves by the end of 2014. |
Yea, it was 900K according to MS, since the 3.9M was also for the same time period. Which really surprised me that they would even announce the 3M, as the big gap (actually normal for any other time outside of a launch) helped illustrate the lack of demand in most parts of the world outside the US/UK.
| OttoniBastos said: Assuming that AMD has the right data(which kind of make sense really) -We have almost 30 million shipped(lets assume ~29,5) -Lets assume that AMD is talking about all the consoles shipped until january 3rd/4th. -We know that PS4 sold 18,5 which implies something between 19-20 million shipped.(assuming that PS4 wasn't Supplie constrainted WW) -That means that,in the best case scenario,Xone shipped 10,5 million consoles until january 3rd/4th. -Assuming that Xone wasn't supplie constrainted WW,that means Xone sold something between 9-10 million until january 3rd/4th. Of course this is the best case scenario for Xone,assuming that PS4 shipped only 19 million consoles until january 3rd/4th. The worse case scenario,though, is PS4 shipped closer to 20.That means Xone shipped ~9,5.Which,assuming that Xone wasn't supplie constrainted WW,means something between 8-9 million consoles sold. Of course this is the WORST POSSIBLE scenario for xone. Mixing the best case with the Worst,Xone definitely sold something between 8-10 million WW. Xone is,at the best case scenario,overtracked by 1 million. Worst case,3 million(lol no). |
See, kids: math really does work!
Why are some people saying the XB1 is 3m overtracked? LOL. If it is, and I believe it is, it's overtracked by 500k - 700k.
The PS5 Exists.
Where's Seece when you need him?
I predict NX launches in 2017 - not 2016
| OttoniBastos said: Assuming that AMD has the right data(which kind of make sense really) -We have almost 30 million shipped(lets assume ~29,5) -Lets assume that AMD is talking about all the consoles shipped until january 3rd/4th. -We know that PS4 sold 18,5 which implies something between 19-20 million shipped.(assuming that PS4 wasn't Supplie constrainted WW) -That means that,in the best case scenario,Xone shipped 10,5 million consoles until january 3rd/4th. -Assuming that Xone wasn't supplie constrainted WW,that means Xone sold something between 9-10 million until january 3rd/4th. Of course this is the best case scenario for Xone,assuming that PS4 shipped only 19 million consoles until january 3rd/4th. The worse case scenario,though, is PS4 shipped closer to 20.That means Xone shipped ~9,5.Which,assuming that Xone wasn't supplie constrainted WW,means something between 8-9 million consoles sold. Of course this is the WORST POSSIBLE scenario for xone. Mixing the best case with the Worst,Xone definitely sold something between 8-10 million WW. Xone is,at the best case scenario,overtracked by 1 million. Worst case,3 million(lol no). |
well you know what they say about assumptions lol
If less than 30 million GPU's have been shipped in by the end of 2014, then it's probably fair to say less than 29.5 million consoles have been shipped, as there would have to be 300-400k currently in consoles under production and not yet shipped. Even if Sony's numbers were a lie and it was 18.5million shipped (not sold), the xb1 would still be slightly overtracked because there is no evidence of shortages, which means given the sales of the holidays there must be at least 500k in the supply chain. Therefore, even absolutely best case the XB1 can't be more than 10.5 million, which would put it half a mil overtracked.
Far more likely is that the ps4 has actually shipped 19 - 19.5 million, and therefore the XB1 is overtracked 1-1.5 million.
| czecherychestnut said: If less than 30 million GPU's have been shipped in by the end of 2014, then it's probably fair to say less than 29.5 million consoles have been shipped, as there would have to be 300-400k currently in consoles under production and not yet shipped. Even if Sony's numbers were a lie and it was 18.5million shipped (not sold), the xb1 would still be slightly overtracked because there is no evidence of shortages, which means given the sales of the holidays there must be at least 500k in the supply chain. Therefore, even absolutely best case the XB1 can't be more than 10.5 million, which would put it half a mil overtracked. Far more likely is that the ps4 has actually shipped 19 - 19.5 million, and therefore the XB1 is overtracked 1-1.5 million. |
This a huge point that alot of people are overlooking. Im with you 1 -1.5 mil over tracked.
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