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Forums - Microsoft - MICROSOFT FY15 Q2: Analyst estimates beaten again. Revenue $26.5bn, Op income $7.8bn. Xbox 6.6m shipped.

 

Quarterly combined Xbox shipments?

2.5m to 3.0m 58 22.92%
 
3.1m to 3.5m 12 4.74%
 
3.6m to 4.0m 13 5.14%
 
4.1m to 4.5m 9 3.56%
 
4.6m to 5.0m 17 6.72%
 
5.1m to 5.5m 14 5.53%
 
5.6m to 6.0m 17 6.72%
 
6.1m to 6.5m 16 6.32%
 
6.6m to 7.0m 58 22.92%
 
7.1m to 7.5m 37 14.62%
 
Total:251
kowenicki said:
binary solo said:
kowenicki said:


I cant even begin to guess either.  I have no faith in the tracking at the moment, so it is really difficult to say.  How much did 360 fall this year? How much has ONE shipped?  Who knows....? 

How can you have no faith in the tracking at the moment when VGC was about as close to NPD in the Xb one tracking as they have ever been? Is it because when they adjusted PS4 down they also adjusted Xb one down? In the case of the USA that downward adjustment seems to have been born out by the NPD result. And the downward adjustment also makes sense in the case of the UK with the independant information that came out regarding PS4 Dec sales and cumulative Nov+Dec sales vs Xb one. If VGC had to adjust down PS4 in the UK to get the LTD aligned with Sony PR, then is was absolutely necessary to adjust Xb one down in oder for VGC to be reasonably consistent with independant UK hardware tracking. Rest of world is of course a different matter. But as UK+USA seems to be 71% of Xb one's market then reasonable accuracy in those two markets pretty much means total Xb one will be reasonably accurate.

IIRC VGC adjusted UK for Xb one when the 1 million was announced for the UK. But I might be wrong in that recollection. Was the 1 million mark pegged as mid-November?

Unless of course you think Xb one is overtracked here. Some people claim Gafers are estimating Xb one at 10 million sell through as of 3 January. But I have no idea of the basis for any Gafer predictions, as they have less information to go on that VGC.

Anyway, Billions in profit no doubt thanks to the core business. Positive PR about Surface, WP and Xb one. Due to the over all make up of the D&C division I expect it to be profitable. D&C's profit will probably exceed Sony's and Nintendo's total operating profit for the quarter. But we will have no clue about whether Xb one is profiting or not. XBL revenue will be across 7th and 8th gen. Game sales will be across 7th and 8th gen and PC. However Xb one is performing financially will be hidden from public view. Only senior people in MS will know.

Hang on... now I have seen this logic in the NPD thread.  "Great tracking"..... I dont get it.  The 'tracking' is NOW only accurate because they did a massive adjustment.  So, two weeks ago the tracking was absolutely terrible... correct?  They HAD to adjust down.   

And I love how your final paragraph is a list of back handed compliments and qaulifications. lol.

I do realise it is becoming difficult for some posters here these days.  "Surface will never be a success", "Phone will never be a success", "Xbox loses money", yet the segment containign all 3 continues to make money.

Whatever therecent adjustments, the current LTD for Xb one is likely to be reasonably accurate, because independant information suggest Xb one numbers as we have them now is not far from actual. And while VGC had hard infomation on which to adjust PS4. VGC had no special information on Xb one prior to publishing its 3 January hardware sales, so you can scoff at VGCs post-facto accuracy for PS4 in the NPD, but the accuracy for Xb one is worth acknowledging. You complained about the Xb one adjustment in the USA "for lack of evidence and logic" or words to that effect, but it seems VGC got it right, based on their re-evaluation of data prior to independant corroborating information in the form of NPD being available and absent MS sales PR.

Seems like you're putting words in my mouth. I said there would be postive PR for Surface, WP and Xbox. Xb one gets a back hander from me of course, because I think Xb one will be contributing negatively to profitability this quarter, and probably for a few quarters to come. So it deserves a back hander. But Surface and WP I just leave at positive PR. To me they are neither successes or failures. But they are strategically important to MS, both in the enterprise and consumer space. As I just mentioned in my previous post, from a corporate strategic perspective I think Xbox is a waste of space. Although I must admit there is one strategic reason for Xbox to continue to exist, and that's if WP and Surface actually are failing in the consumer space and only gaining market penetration in enterprise. If Surface and WP are actually failing with consumers, then Xbox retains importance for occupation of the home. But for reasons I've mentioned, consoles have lost, or are losing there anyway. Xbox needs to pivot away from consoles in that case or it will be left behind fighting over increasing irrelevant gamer scraps.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

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7.0m Xbox shipped.

If you wish breakdown but MS won't give us:

3.5-4.0m Xbone
3.0-3.5m 360

Xbone more to high and 360 to low.

PS. Before guys says my Xbone numbers are low I'm basing in 10m shipped at end of November... so more 1.5m shipped in December that is pretty resoanable basing in the fact they shipped ~2.5m in Oct-Nov.



4.5m XB1, 2m 360 for me



 

Why bother? Billions and billions of profits, some tidbits of xbox.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

kowenicki said:
DonFerrari said:
Why bother? Billions and billions of profits, some tidbits of xbox.


Why post this then?

I realise this time of year is tough for some.


Because I'll read anyway.

Tough why? People that have shares will get a lot of money on it, employees will get bonus, myself is very happy with my financials, have bought a Wii and a X360... But why would anyone be sad at this time of the year.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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kowenicki said:
DonFerrari said:
kowenicki said:

Why post this then?

I realise this time of year is tough for some.


Because I'll read anyway.

Tough why? People that have shares will get a lot of money on it, employees will get bonus, myself is very happy with my financials, have bought a Wii and a X360... But why would anyone be sad at this time of the year.

this post is at odds with your first post.

forget it.


No need to forget... Why would anyone be sad? And why post that directed to me?



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Tagged



Guessing 3.8-4.2m XB1 shipped, ~1.8m 360s

Have no clue about revenue or profit as 360 and Live are still going to be making a killing for them minus the lost revenue from the price cut.



kowenicki said:

I dont think your ONE number is too low, because I have no idea what it will be.  I do think your 360 number is too high though.

You expect the possibility of the same shipments for 360 as we had in the same quarter last year?

Maybe it is too high and I didn't checked last year numbers...

I don't expect less than 2 million for 360 btw.



How much d'yall think combined PS4/PS3 shipments will be compared to X11/X360 shipments?