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Forums - Politics Discussion - If Greece was kicked out of the EU, would that save the dying Euro?

generic-user-1 on 25 January 2015
Mr Khan said:
generic-user-1 said:
Mr Khan said:
Wyrdness said:
The Euro was a flawed disaster to begin with I doubt Greece leaving would end all of the problems tbh, it'll certainly impact me and those of us currently working in the financial sector in the immediate future though.

The only flaw was the political control over the central bank. If Draghi had carte blanche to do what needed to be done, as Ben Bernanke/Janet Yellen had, much of the mess could have been averted; easy money in the short term should have been matched by schemes to close deficits in the medium term, which is similar to what happened in the US, albeit not planned by anyone (in terms of deficit closing because of the chaotic Sequestration policy due to government gridlock).

Soft money policies can't solve all the problems, but we've seen in Europe how very real the human costs are of a "shock therapy" style approach to structural reform and state debt. Although EU should have been paying closer attention to Russia in the 90s to know that it was going to be a terrible idea in the first place.


they should have never let draghi take over the ecb, hes an idiot, he lifes in a bubble. he is trying things that never worked. QE was never a good idea, it didnt worked in japan and it didnt worked in the usa and it will not work in europe. QE just blow up bubbles till they burst. but his buddies at the banks wanted MOAR cheap money so he delivered MOAR money... he could have handed out money directly to every citizen, or invest in real things with fresh ecb money, that wouldnt have broken any laws, QE does.

QE isn't a magic bullet, but it does soften the blow. What *works* is demand-spurring infrastructure projects and other forms of wise government spending, but often there is not the will to increase spending in an economic downturn. Being removed from politics, banks are free to apply their tools, and QE at least encourages business spending (because punting the interest rates means there's much less incentive for businesses to save), and cheap credit saves at least some distressed businesses. Now this creates the problems of "zombie firms", but in light of a lack of government will to do what is right for its people, QE can provide some help in terms of mitigating the human costs of an economic collapse.

QE isnt working and cant work, the banks dont have more money if they sell high value bonds, they need those to get fresh money from the ecb, the only positive thing about QE is the negative interest on bonds, but that hurts other companys and banks.

its way better to send every citizen a check with the mail, thats fresh money going directly into the economy. or buy greek bonds and make a haircut, the ecb cant get broke, they can easyly print the lost money new.  but those things are evil because the banks dont profit from em...



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Mr Khan on 25 January 2015
generic-user-1 said:
Mr Khan said:

QE isn't a magic bullet, but it does soften the blow. What *works* is demand-spurring infrastructure projects and other forms of wise government spending, but often there is not the will to increase spending in an economic downturn. Being removed from politics, banks are free to apply their tools, and QE at least encourages business spending (because punting the interest rates means there's much less incentive for businesses to save), and cheap credit saves at least some distressed businesses. Now this creates the problems of "zombie firms", but in light of a lack of government will to do what is right for its people, QE can provide some help in terms of mitigating the human costs of an economic collapse.

QE isnt working and cant work, the banks dont have more money if they sell high value bonds, they need those to get fresh money from the ecb, the only positive thing about QE is the negative interest on bonds, but that hurts other companys and banks.

its way better to send every citizen a check with the mail, thats fresh money going directly into the economy. or buy greek bonds and make a haircut, the ecb cant get broke, they can easyly print the lost money new.  but those things are evil because the banks dont profit from em...

I'm with you on direct fiscal stimulus. I'm just saying QE is an easier sell, and is a far cry from doing nothing.



Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.

mai on 26 January 2015

EU’s bailout program for Greece ‘dead’



mai on 26 January 2015
generic-user-1 said:
mai said:
generic-user-1 said:

solar and windenergie work realy fine. germany hs 20%, other states have even higher rates(not not so muc heavy industrie, so the consumption is a bit different).

As I often repeat this, it works "really fine" as long as there's substantial amount of readily available and cheap (in terms of EROEI) energy, which it leeches onto. We have passed traditional peak oil somewhere in 2000s, the growth past that time has been based upon hard to excavate and pricey oils like shale, artic, tar sands etc., which will likely to peak very soon as well given current price. It's extremely unrelaistic if not naive to expect alternative energy to be a good replacement for that. Just as illustration -- Sigmar Gabriel: "Wir stehen knapp vor dem Scheitern der Energiewende".

Make yourself and the world a favour -- if you see a green energy sectarian or whoever lobbies for that crap -- punch him in the head until he gets smarter and abandons his illusions.

EE work realy fine, and they can stand totaly alone if you have enough of em, there is no big problem with having 100% EE, you can harvest the energie you need on rainy windless days on the other days, the natural gas infrastructur is big enough as buffer, and you can feed in windgas or biogas easyly. the Energiewende has no technical problems, it has political problems, because southern "germans" are stupid egoist who dont want to have the grid near their towns or windenergie in their states.

This is could be a long and tedios discsussion which is offtopic here, so I'll make this short.

I suggest to study at least EU documentation on the practical implementatioin of the "green energy" for starters. A lot could be concluded even from this rather one-sided perspective. Here's a titbit (rmb > open in a new windoe to enlarge):

Total subsidies costs:

More closer look by memeber state:

An interesting part is "support to energy demand", this is basically an exemption from sizeable part of the taxation. That begs a question, is full energy cycle is possible without that huge level of support for the greenies? Not in the current economy. I'd not mind to see another chart -- installed energy capacities per capinvestment compared to other types of energy resources.

Source: https://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/documents/ECOFYS%202014%20Subsidies%20and%20costs%20of%20EU%20energy_11_Nov.pdf



wangjingwanjia on 26 January 2015
RedInker said:
wangjingwanjia said:
Well, having the UK and Switzerland, and also Norway and Denmark in the monetary union wouldn't hurt. :)



I doubt the UK will ever join the Euro. If anything our relationship with the EU will become looser.

Yes I think so too. Good for EU however. I also don't think that HK will ever change to RMB, they will always use HK$. It's no point for both the local HK nor the Chinese government to change their currency. And I think it's the same for UK and Switzerland.

Norway, Denmark and Sweden however I don't really understand why they don't change. Pretty small countries, couldn't they benefit to have a stronger currency? I'm not good at these kind of things but to me it seems like it could.





黑色沙漠 - Black Desert - 검은사막

 

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generic-user-1 on 26 January 2015
mai said:
generic-user-1 said:
mai said:
generic-user-1 said:

solar and windenergie work realy fine. germany hs 20%, other states have even higher rates(not not so muc heavy industrie, so the consumption is a bit different).

As I often repeat this, it works "really fine" as long as there's substantial amount of readily available and cheap (in terms of EROEI) energy, which it leeches onto. We have passed traditional peak oil somewhere in 2000s, the growth past that time has been based upon hard to excavate and pricey oils like shale, artic, tar sands etc., which will likely to peak very soon as well given current price. It's extremely unrelaistic if not naive to expect alternative energy to be a good replacement for that. Just as illustration -- Sigmar Gabriel: "Wir stehen knapp vor dem Scheitern der Energiewende".

Make yourself and the world a favour -- if you see a green energy sectarian or whoever lobbies for that crap -- punch him in the head until he gets smarter and abandons his illusions.

EE work realy fine, and they can stand totaly alone if you have enough of em, there is no big problem with having 100% EE, you can harvest the energie you need on rainy windless days on the other days, the natural gas infrastructur is big enough as buffer, and you can feed in windgas or biogas easyly. the Energiewende has no technical problems, it has political problems, because southern "germans" are stupid egoist who dont want to have the grid near their towns or windenergie in their states.

This is could be a long and tedios discsussion which is offtopic here, so I'll make this short.

I suggest to study at least EU documentation on the practical implementatioin of the "green energy" for starters. A lot could be concluded even from this rather one-sided perspective. Here's a titbit (rmb > open in a new windoe to enlarge):

Total subsidies costs:

More closer look by memeber state:

An interesting part is "support to energy demand", this is basically an exemption from sizeable part of the taxation. That begs a question, is full energy cycle is possible without that huge level of support for the greenies? Not in the current economy. I'd not mind to see another chart -- installed energy capacities per capinvestment compared to other types of energy resources.

Source: https://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/documents/ECOFYS%202014%20Subsidies%20and%20costs%20of%20EU%20energy_11_Nov.pdf



a lot of this support goes to oppurtunistic subventionsabusers. and this will change soon, its the way of the conservatives to abuse and discredit EEs.

mai on 04 February 2015

generic-user-1 said:

 a lot of this support goes to oppurtunistic subventionsabusers. and this will change soon, its the way of the conservatives to abuse and discredit EEs.

You know, there's an old proverb: "Saying halva-halva won't make your mouth sweet". Keeping in mind the plan to reach afair 20% in "green" electricity generation by 2020, you're hopelessly lagging behind since full cicle of the production run of seemingly "free" energy costs that much. I dunno check the prices in Denmark if you want to get a grasp of the future. I understand that Germany in... what that German word... zugzwang? in the energy department, but doesn't look like wind and solar energy is the solution here. It cost you a few major blackouts already due to lack of dispatchable capacities (and that wind energy you have is an immense overload for the power grid), so even theoiretically it's not possible to reach that 100% mark. Never, ever.

 

Speaking about future of energy shortages, let's hear eurocomissar:

Like many in Europe we will sleep in our warm homes tonight, while an unacceptably high number of European households will not be warm enough, simply because their residents cannot afford proper heating. Ladies and gentlemen, 10% of our households is energy-poor!

But it's not only about home consumers. EU companies are facing gas prices which are no less than3 times higher than those enjoyed by their American counterparts. This is a huge burden on our industry and our economy.

And when talking about our industry: among the top 10 solar energy companies, none is European. 

Still too much energy is wasted, and we have not yet built the low-carbon economy and society that is there to last, a concern shared by a very wide spectrum of stakeholders, from green NGOs to major industrial companies, as I could see in Davos last week.

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-15-3700_fr.htm

Probably these 10% are elsewhere, Greece or smth, but rest assured -- more to come! BTW I like how he's presenting worrisome facts but keeps repeating same mantras: "No, ladies and gentelmen, that's because we haven't tried good enough in solar energy generation" :D



HBninjaX on 04 February 2015

Kicking Greece out won't save the Euro, no. Civilizations come and go, right now it's about managing the decline.



generic-user-1 on 04 February 2015
mai said:

generic-user-1 said:

 a lot of this support goes to oppurtunistic subventionsabusers. and this will change soon, its the way of the conservatives to abuse and discredit EEs.

You know, there's an old proverb: "Saying halva-halva won't make your mouth sweet". Keeping in mind the plan to reach afair 20% in "green" electricity generation by 2020, you're hopelessly lagging behind since full cicle of the production run of seemingly "free" energy costs that much. I dunno check the prices in Denmark if you want to get a grasp of the future. I understand that Germany in... what that German word... zugzwang? in the energy department, but doesn't look like wind and solar energy is the solution here. It cost you a few major blackouts already due to lack of dispatchable capacities (and that wind energy you have is an immense overload for the power grid), so even theoiretically it's not possible to reach that 100% mark. Never, ever.

 

Speaking about future of energy shortages, let's hear eurocomissar:

Like many in Europe we will sleep in our warm homes tonight, while an unacceptably high number of European households will not be warm enough, simply because their residents cannot afford proper heating. Ladies and gentlemen, 10% of our households is energy-poor!

But it's not only about home consumers. EU companies are facing gas prices which are no less than3 times higher than those enjoyed by their American counterparts. This is a huge burden on our industry and our economy.

And when talking about our industry: among the top 10 solar energy companies, none is European. 

Still too much energy is wasted, and we have not yet built the low-carbon economy and society that is there to last, a concern shared by a very wide spectrum of stakeholders, from green NGOs to major industrial companies, as I could see in Davos last week.

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-15-3700_fr.htm

Probably these 10% are elsewhere, Greece or smth, but rest assured -- more to come! BTW I like how he's presenting worrisome facts but keeps repeating same mantras: "No, ladies and gentelmen, that's because we haven't tried good enough in solar energy generation" :D


blackouts? in germany? because of EE? thats new... and the energie prices in europe were allways high, we dont have much gas, we dont have so much coal thats not under citys.     

 

do you have numbers from other countrys to compare?



Hardcore_gamer on 04 February 2015

European Union shouldn't exist at all uk lots of country need come out of it