Yet I would've won at The Price Is Right.

And I'll take the washing machine and the TV and the decorative vase.

PS4 should see at least 50% growth of sales compared to the 1st year, 21.15M minimum will be what PS4 sells this year. If that seems ridiculous then people need to look at PS3's 2nd year, it had 66% sales growth compared to the 1st year, at 66% growth PS4 sells over 23 million units this year, seriously topping 40 million units by the end of 2015 isn't unlikely.
PS4's 2015 line-up of software is a much bigger improvement than PS3's 2008 line-up was and PS4 also has the 3rd party games way more on it's side, it could gain over 70% sales growth compared to it's first year, 24 million units sold this year isn't unlikely, which would put PS4 at selling 42.5 million units total by the end of 2015.

As for the whole price cut business, it's highly likely if not guaranteed the system will get one because it would be an incredibly effective momentum booster and software sales grow massively in the 2nd year, I mean PS3 sold 20 million units of software at retail according VG Chartz by a year after launch, in it's 2nd year 70 million more units of software were sold at retail. According to VG Chartz PS4 sold 50 million units of retail by 27/12/2014, 3.5X that figure could easily be sold this year, or 175 million units from retail software alone, if that translates to the digital sales too 80M x 3.5=280 million games sold by the end of this year, that definitely supports any kind of price cut on hardware, while still generating huge profits in the billions of dollars for PS4 and that's without even talking about revenue from PS Plus, which could also more than double compared to what was achieved last year $600M times 2 equals $1.2 billion.

Demand will definitely be there to encourage greater mass production and price reductions on manufacturing of PS4, so a price cut may not cost Sony anything, because costs can be reduced to make up for it, especially if we're talking 2 years after manufacturing started.

A price cut would spike the numbers much harder than we've already seen and definitely be paid back by the software if any losses on hardware happened to be incurred.
PS Plus is a huge revenue stream this generation, already adding some $600M to Playstation's income, no doubt as better games are added to the IGC each month that will grow and that only serves to reinforce the bottom line.

If GT7 releases (pretty likely to combat Forza 6 on XB1), along with a few more AAA exclusives, extra 3rd party games compared to what's already been announced and the system gets a $50/£50 price cut 45 million units could definitely be sold by the end of 2015, over 360 million units of software, along with 30 million PS Plus subscriptions could be the end result.

if the ps4 had had a terrible launch and been overpriced (this time the xbone was the overpriced one), as the ps3 did and was, then 50-60% yoy growth would be conceivable. however, the ps4 did not have that kind of a launch. it had, in fact, a great launch (in spite of having next to no compelling exclusive software). one of the best launches ever, if not the best, actually. at best, then, it will have 20% growth, which still leaves it around 17m 2015 (~2.5-3m more than 2014). that makes ~35.5m, which is only slightly above my prediction. 33-35m more likely. bank on it.

I agree with this. Also, just recently, SCEA announced that The Last of Us will be bundled with every 500GB PS4. It was already ranking very high on Amazon and is selling well on other retailers. This basically increases the value and will attract more consumers. With the inevitable pricecut, probably of a new 1TB SKU, and a vastly improved games lineup, the PS4 should easily perform better than it did last year. I felt that in the first half of last year, the PS4 suffered from large drought periods in between major releases. However, this time, it will have a healthy and steady stream of games from now to summertime:

• Citizens of Earth and Grim Fandango this month
• Tropico 5 and The Order: 1886 in February
• Final Fantasy Type-0 HD (FF sells significantly more on Playstation), Bloodborne, and MLB 15: The Show in March
• Omega Quintet in April
• Final Fantasy X/X-2 HD in spring

Another interesting thing to point out is how well the PS4 can do in China. Yeah, I know, it got delayed from its original Jan. 10 launch date. However, as ComicSex found from JD, a Chinese retailer, the PS4 received 140K preorders and this is from just one retailer. The PS4's Chinese launch was delayed likely because Sony wanted to ship more consoles (the company originally only planned to ship 200K annually). Not saying the PS4 will light China on fire when it finally comes out, but the market should give it a nice sales boost at launch, at least. It remains to be seen if sales can be maintained throughout this year.

(1) multiplat coming to everything but xbox (wii u, 3ds, vita, etc.)

(2) confirmed by double fine to be released on everything else eventually (incl. xbox)

(3) coming to pc, 360, xbone, everything but nintendo platforms (already out on pc for about 8 months... not that well received: 75 metascore)

(4) confirmed dud with quick time events and endless pseudo cut-scenes where you're nominally controlling but not really "playing" anything (predict <72 metacritic, possibly high 60s if not 71 like driveclub)

(5) hd port of psp game from four years ago that was never localized, should sell like hotcakes (also on xbox)

(6) mlb series that's never cracked anything close to 1m on any platform (always playstation platforms) and is more irrelevant than ever

(7) two hd ports of almost 15 year old games that already came out almost a year ago on ps3/vita

bloodborne's the only good title. you have a killer line-up.

1.) The game is not on the PS4's direct compeitor
2.) It is released on the PS4 first. X1 version has not even been announced yet.
3.) Tropico 5 has not been announced for the X1.
4.) Reception of the latest footage from PS Experience was a vast improvement. The negative feedback from before came from the fact that RAD used the exact same demo for several months. "Confirmed dud" is a false statement and a very ignorant one, at that.
5.) Final Fantasy sells a lot better on Playstation platforms (did you not spot that in my previous comment?) (See sales of FFXIII and its sequels for reference)
6.) MLB The Show, while not huge, is the only MLB game available. The 2K series no longer around.
7.) The PS4 version of FFX/X-2 HD is in a similar situation to TLOU: Remastered. There were many consumers last gen who did not have a PS3. This is a great way for fans of FFX and X-2 to enjoy the remasters without having to splurge money on a last gen console.

Not every title has to be a "killer" title. The most important part is that the PS4 receives a consistent stream of games throughout the year, something that it failed to do last year. If you want to debate what game is a "killer" game, make your own thread about it. Also, how convenient of you of ignoring my other points.

I hope for 36M with a 50$/€ price cut in September, even better if it would be with a new design..

PS3 having a poor launch is entirely debatable, for one thing it didn't launch simultaneously around the world and wasn't even available in it's biggest market (Europe) for over 4 months after it launched in it's initial regions. Dispite that, it came with good games for it's launch year and managed to sell more than the 360 in it's 1st year, even with the expensive price, 360 was a sub 6M seller in it's 1st year, whereas PS3 sold over 6 million units and 360 had a global launch.

Relative to it's 1st year PS3's 2nd year while an improvement it wasn't as big an improvement as PS4's second year will be, with way better exclusives whether you're after AAA or Indie, awesome 3rd party.

PS4 having a great launch just improves it's market image and the fact it's achieved 18.5M in sales with what many consider to be a pretty lackluster offering relative to what's coming only reinforces that this level of growth is all but a certainty. There's also the fact that the system hasn't really had anything in the way of an official price cut yet, lack of much competition from it's closest competitor.

As Aura said below a bigger HDD seems a likely addition that Sony make also or failing that bundling of some past exclusives, but even without these incentives the line-up of exclusives this year carries incredible weight and given the amount of 3rd party games coming too that will be an enormous driving force when it comes to sales.

Even 360 with what was arguably a better 1st year for games compared to it's second saw like 33% growth in it's 2nd year compared to the 1st and that was with all of the RROD bad press and PS3 competition, yet you're saying that PS4 being in a better place image wise, with a far bigger line-up of exclusives, price cut very likely, great 3rd party, little competition it can't have bigger momentum and sales growth than the 360.

No 50% sales growth seems like the minimum to expect, but we'll see what happens.

Yeah there's a pretty stark contrast between the amount and quality of games incoming compared to what's launched so far, arguably it's the biggest improvement in software line-up compared to 1st year in recent times and certainly compared to PS3, like I said that had a 66% increase in sales growth compared to it's previous year. Droughts are basically non-existant this year and that's with every major conference for Sony to announce more new games at, but a plentiful line-up of AAA and Indie exclusives to fill out the year.

Japan gets far better support of software compared to last year during this year and any 3rd party like Metal Gear, FFXV (if it launches) may as well be exclusive to PS4, those should definitely spike the weekly sales in that region.

China is of course an unknown, but from reports the level of interest at least seems reasonable. IMO Japan levels aren't inconceivable.

I wouldn't be shocked if when all said and done PS4 shoots well past a 50% sales increase compared to last year by the end of this year. To say that 20% is the highest it can go is majorly lowballing the estimates.

It will depend how sony will price their console. The last of us bundle is a good start buts its only in NA