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JustBeingReal on 13 January 2015
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Aura7541 said:
JustBeingReal said:
PS4 should see at least 50% growth of sales compared to the 1st year, 21.15M minimum will be what PS4 sells this year. If that seems ridiculous then people need to look at PS3's 2nd year, it had 66% sales growth compared to the 1st year, at 66% growth PS4 sells over 23 million units this year, seriously topping 40 million units by the end of 2015 isn't unlikely.
PS4's 2015 line-up of software is a much bigger improvement than PS3's 2008 line-up was and PS4 also has the 3rd party games way more on it's side, it could gain over 70% sales growth compared to it's first year, 24 million units sold this year isn't unlikely, which would put PS4 at selling 42.5 million units total by the end of 2015.

As for the whole price cut business, it's highly likely if not guaranteed the system will get one because it would be an incredibly effective momentum booster and software sales grow massively in the 2nd year, I mean PS3 sold 20 million units of software at retail according VG Chartz by a year after launch, in it's 2nd year 70 million more units of software were sold at retail. According to VG Chartz PS4 sold 50 million units of retail by 27/12/2014, 3.5X that figure could easily be sold this year, or 175 million units from retail software alone, if that translates to the digital sales too 80M x 3.5=280 million games sold by the end of this year, that definitely supports any kind of price cut on hardware, while still generating huge profits in the billions of dollars for PS4 and that's without even talking about revenue from PS Plus, which could also more than double compared to what was achieved last year $600M times 2 equals $1.2 billion.

Demand will definitely be there to encourage greater mass production and price reductions on manufacturing of PS4, so a price cut may not cost Sony anything, because costs can be reduced to make up for it, especially if we're talking 2 years after manufacturing started.

A price cut would spike the numbers much harder than we've already seen and definitely be paid back by the software if any losses on hardware happened to be incurred.
PS Plus is a huge revenue stream this generation, already adding some $600M to Playstation's income, no doubt as better games are added to the IGC each month that will grow and that only serves to reinforce the bottom line.

If GT7 releases (pretty likely to combat Forza 6 on XB1), along with a few more AAA exclusives, extra 3rd party games compared to what's already been announced and the system gets a $50/£50 price cut 45 million units could definitely be sold by the end of 2015, over 360 million units of software, along with 30 million PS Plus subscriptions could be the end result.

I agree with this. Also, just recently, SCEA announced that The Last of Us will be bundled with every 500GB PS4. It was already ranking very high on Amazon and is selling well on other retailers. This basically increases the value and will attract more consumers. With the inevitable pricecut, probably of a new 1TB SKU, and a vastly improved games lineup, the PS4 should easily perform better than it did last year. I felt that in the first half of last year, the PS4 suffered from large drought periods in between major releases. However, this time, it will have a healthy and steady stream of games from now to summertime:

 

  • Citizens of Earth and Grim Fandango this month
  • Tropico 5 and The Order: 1886 in February
  • Final Fantasy Type-0 HD (FF sells significantly more on Playstation), Bloodborne, and MLB 15: The Show in March
  • Omega Quintet in April
  • Final Fantasy X/X-2 HD in spring

 

Another interesting thing to point out is how well the PS4 can do in China. Yeah, I know, it got delayed from its original Jan. 10 launch date. However, as ComicSex found from JD, a Chinese retailer, the PS4 received 140K preorders and this is from just one retailer. The PS4's Chinese launch was delayed likely because Sony wanted to ship more consoles (the company originally only planned to ship 200K annually). Not saying the PS4 will light China on fire when it finally comes out, but the market should give it a nice sales boost at launch, at least. It remains to be seen if sales can be maintained throughout this year.


Yeah there's a pretty stark contrast between the amount and quality of games incoming compared to what's launched so far, arguably it's the biggest improvement in software line-up compared to 1st year in recent times and certainly compared to PS3, like I said that had a 66% increase in sales growth compared to it's previous year. Droughts are basically non-existant this year and that's with every major conference for Sony to announce more new games at, but a plentiful line-up of AAA and Indie exclusives to fill out the year.

Japan gets far better support of software compared to last year during this year and any 3rd party like Metal Gear, FFXV (if it launches) may as well be exclusive to PS4, those should definitely spike the weekly sales in that region.

China is of course an unknown, but from reports the level of interest at least seems reasonable. IMO Japan levels aren't inconceivable.

 

I wouldn't be shocked if when all said and done PS4 shoots well past a 50% sales increase compared to last year by the end of this year. To say that 20% is the highest it can go is majorly lowballing the estimates.