PS4 should see at least 50% growth of sales compared to the 1st year, 21.15M minimum will be what PS4 sells this year. If that seems ridiculous then people need to look at PS3's 2nd year, it had 66% sales growth compared to the 1st year, at 66% growth PS4 sells over 23 million units this year, seriously topping 40 million units by the end of 2015 isn't unlikely.
PS4's 2015 line-up of software is a much bigger improvement than PS3's 2008 line-up was and PS4 also has the 3rd party games way more on it's side, it could gain over 70% sales growth compared to it's first year, 24 million units sold this year isn't unlikely, which would put PS4 at selling 42.5 million units total by the end of 2015.
As for the whole price cut business, it's highly likely if not guaranteed the system will get one because it would be an incredibly effective momentum booster and software sales grow massively in the 2nd year, I mean PS3 sold 20 million units of software at retail according VG Chartz by a year after launch, in it's 2nd year 70 million more units of software were sold at retail. According to VG Chartz PS4 sold 50 million units of retail by 27/12/2014, 3.5X that figure could easily be sold this year, or 175 million units from retail software alone, if that translates to the digital sales too 80M x 3.5=280 million games sold by the end of this year, that definitely supports any kind of price cut on hardware, while still generating huge profits in the billions of dollars for PS4 and that's without even talking about revenue from PS Plus, which could also more than double compared to what was achieved last year $600M times 2 equals $1.2 billion.
Demand will definitely be there to encourage greater mass production and price reductions on manufacturing of PS4, so a price cut may not cost Sony anything, because costs can be reduced to make up for it, especially if we're talking 2 years after manufacturing started.
A price cut would spike the numbers much harder than we've already seen and definitely be paid back by the software if any losses on hardware happened to be incurred.
PS Plus is a huge revenue stream this generation, already adding some $600M to Playstation's income, no doubt as better games are added to the IGC each month that will grow and that only serves to reinforce the bottom line.
If GT7 releases (pretty likely to combat Forza 6 on XB1), along with a few more AAA exclusives, extra 3rd party games compared to what's already been announced and the system gets a $50/£50 price cut 45 million units could definitely be sold by the end of 2015, over 360 million units of software, along with 30 million PS Plus subscriptions could be the end result.
