jetforcejiminy said:
if the ps4 had had a terrible launch and been overpriced (this time the xbone was the overpriced one), as the ps3 did and was, then 50-60% yoy growth would be conceivable. however, the ps4 did not have that kind of a launch. it had, in fact, a great launch (in spite of having next to no compelling exclusive software). one of the best launches ever, if not the best, actually. at best, then, it will have 20% growth, which still leaves it around 17m 2015 (~2.5-3m more than 2014). that makes ~35.5m, which is only slightly above my prediction. 33-35m more likely. bank on it. |
PS3 having a poor launch is entirely debatable, for one thing it didn't launch simultaneously around the world and wasn't even available in it's biggest market (Europe) for over 4 months after it launched in it's initial regions. Dispite that, it came with good games for it's launch year and managed to sell more than the 360 in it's 1st year, even with the expensive price, 360 was a sub 6M seller in it's 1st year, whereas PS3 sold over 6 million units and 360 had a global launch.
Relative to it's 1st year PS3's 2nd year while an improvement it wasn't as big an improvement as PS4's second year will be, with way better exclusives whether you're after AAA or Indie, awesome 3rd party.
PS4 having a great launch just improves it's market image and the fact it's achieved 18.5M in sales with what many consider to be a pretty lackluster offering relative to what's coming only reinforces that this level of growth is all but a certainty. There's also the fact that the system hasn't really had anything in the way of an official price cut yet, lack of much competition from it's closest competitor.
As Aura said below a bigger HDD seems a likely addition that Sony make also or failing that bundling of some past exclusives, but even without these incentives the line-up of exclusives this year carries incredible weight and given the amount of 3rd party games coming too that will be an enormous driving force when it comes to sales.
Even 360 with what was arguably a better 1st year for games compared to it's second saw like 33% growth in it's 2nd year compared to the 1st and that was with all of the RROD bad press and PS3 competition, yet you're saying that PS4 being in a better place image wise, with a far bigger line-up of exclusives, price cut very likely, great 3rd party, little competition it can't have bigger momentum and sales growth than the 360.
No 50% sales growth seems like the minimum to expect, but we'll see what happens.
