3DS and Vita seems right, but I would reduce the others by ~ 10 - 20k

I'm pretty sure they will all dip one week or another

One can choose to see it as; "well, revisions are helping it sell!" but I choose to think "despite no proper competition and yearly revisions as well as terrific software, it is very heavily down from the 7th gen and will end up below half in lifetime totals".

I'm not pessimistic, I see it as being realistic. The industry is not going away, but it's changing and branching out before our very eyes.

There is little sense in taking holiday numbers for one region as proof of anything stable for the entire coming year and where the DS' revisions provided massive, lasting sales momentum; the 3DS' revisions are nothing but a safety net to keep it from plummeting completely in comparison. The 2DS showed a similar effect but didn't prevent the 3DS from a decline despite a promising start; this is very much like giving vitamins to a chronically ill patient, to put it very bluntly; it might improve quality of life for certain periods but on the whole, the disease will rule day-to day conditions. The reason I'm always focusing so much on handhelds is that this is where people show the most unfounded optimism and this is by far the market segment that is taking the biggest hit overall, the total installed base for the 8th gen handhelds might end up as low as 35-40% of the 7th gen, which is a complete disaster compared to the contraction the home consoles are seeing, simply stating (as many do) that "well, the DS was a phenomenon and hardly the standard to measure handhelds against" doesn't cover the extent of this decline, there simply is no arguing the tremendous impact of modern market changes and movements. I'm not trying to rain on anyone's parade in here; I just think that people need to be prepared for vast changes in the industry through the 8th gen and especially in the 9th gen where these affects will likely be even more severe.

Many are saying "Well, it's not doom, the consoles are doing okay and the doom-talk has to end, home consoles are selling really fast" etc, which is all perfectly fine, but no one can deny the changes we are seeing and no one can rightly say that consoles will live on in good health in the future if things keep heading down the same path we're currently seeing. Marginalized handhelds plus sizeable contraction in home consoles = undeniable change, regardless of what we wish for the industry and we need to consolidate ourselves with the fact that the majority that steers the market movements today are very likely out of tune with out personal preferences; I know I for one don't like the direction everything is headed, that doesn't stop me from seeing the development though.

Are we talking worldwide?

People really have no expectations for PSVita. I'm not even sure if its dropped below 10k in Japan this year, so worldwide I don't see that happening, its overall line up in 2015 is looking much stronger then 2014.


PS4:140k
Xbox One:80k
Wii U:35k
PSV: 35k
3DS:60k

Seems pretty accurate, but I think Ouya is a bit too low.

Give that guy an Award!