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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Baselines 2015?

 

Agree with mine?

Totally 8 28.57%
 
Not completely, but for the most part 8 28.57%
 
Some parts but mostly not 7 25.00%
 
Nope 5 17.86%
 
Total:28
ExplodingBlock on 14 December 2014

PS4: 120k
XB1: 70k
Wii U: 55k
3DS: 85k
PSV: 20k



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LordLichtenstein on 14 December 2014
vivster said:
LordLichtenstein said:

I am willing to bet, that PS4 won't drop below 185k in 2015 - because PS4 won't suffer from the supposedly "drought".

That prediction is bold enough to warrant a thread ;)


One is already on the way :p



small44 on 14 December 2014

3DS-100k base

PSV-20k base

Wii U-50k base

XB1-100k base

PS4-150k base



PS4 - over 100 millions let's say 120m
Xbox One - 70m
Wii U - 25m

Vita - 15m if it will not get Final Fantasy Kingdoms Heart and Monster Hunter 20m otherwise
3DS - 80m

Mummelmann on 15 December 2014
RubberWhistleHistle said:
Ka-pi96 said:
RubberWhistleHistle said:
i didnt think baseline meant the absolute worst it would sell in a given week. i figure if a console sells, say, 40k in a week, where it sold 50k every week prior to that and then sold 50k every week after that, its baseline isnt 40k anymore. a console can dip like that for a number of reasons. baseline is kind of like the average of the worst weeks a console can have, not the worst it can sell in a given week. that sounds reasonable to me.

That's how I would define baseline as well


seems like a lot of people think wii u's baseline this year was 28k because that was its lowest week.. i dont understand that reasoning.


Feel free to provide links to "a lot of people" who believe the Wii U's actual baseline has been 28k for 2014. As far as I know, I'm the only who mentioned that number and nowhere does it say that I think that this was ever the baseline.

I myself mentioned that number but I know perfectly well what an actual baseline is; I was merely operating within the conditions and premises set by the OP (as he clearly states that he wants numbers for possible worst low weeks and not actual baselines) and pointing out that some of the figures seemed off, and can fairly assume that the other replies are based on the same premise given by the OP. Considering that these are the lowest possible weeks the OP suggests, that would entail that average weeks through the year would be even higher, making the numbers even more unlikely. If anything, you should be correcting the OP, who is making, by far, the most faulty assumptions of all.

PS: I predicted a max baseline for the Wii U of 45k for Q1, Q2 and Q3 average and I'm off by about 1.2k (actual is around 46.2 or so) before 2014 adjustments post-holiday.



tak13 on 15 December 2014
Mummelmann said:
3DS had one week at around 91k this year, it will likely be heavily down yoy next year and might dip into the high 60's or low 70's, in my opinion. The Wii U had at least one week below 30k this year (around 28k), there's no way the worst week will be over twice as good as that, with only one true major software release for the year and a bunch of second-tier games along with it, the summer will be brutal. I also believe the Wii U will be down at least 10-15% yoy in 2015 compared to 2014.

PS4 was never under 130k in 2014 as far as I know, so 120k sounds a bit low, it will be up yoy for sure at will likely see better average weeks due to that. Then again; it might dip below 120k as well; these are fickle times for home consoles.

I think the One could go below 80k at its worst, it had several weeks in the low 50's this year and the price cut is only temporary, not to mention that it still only has two major regions where it moves significant numbers (US and UK). I think the One will have a great year and be up a sizeable amount yoy but it might see some paltry weeks, I can easily see it falling below 80k on several occassions. A few slow week in the US is all it takes to offset global numbers a great deal.

My guess would be:

PS4: 135k

One: 65k

Wii U: 25k

3DS: 65k

I hope that you at least mean before new 3ds/xl...



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Mummelmann on 15 December 2014
tak13 said:
Mummelmann said:
3DS had one week at around 91k this year, it will likely be heavily down yoy next year and might dip into the high 60's or low 70's, in my opinion. The Wii U had at least one week below 30k this year (around 28k), there's no way the worst week will be over twice as good as that, with only one true major software release for the year and a bunch of second-tier games along with it, the summer will be brutal. I also believe the Wii U will be down at least 10-15% yoy in 2015 compared to 2014.

PS4 was never under 130k in 2014 as far as I know, so 120k sounds a bit low, it will be up yoy for sure at will likely see better average weeks due to that. Then again; it might dip below 120k as well; these are fickle times for home consoles.

I think the One could go below 80k at its worst, it had several weeks in the low 50's this year and the price cut is only temporary, not to mention that it still only has two major regions where it moves significant numbers (US and UK). I think the One will have a great year and be up a sizeable amount yoy but it might see some paltry weeks, I can easily see it falling below 80k on several occassions. A few slow week in the US is all it takes to offset global numbers a great deal.

My guess would be:

PS4: 135k

One: 65k

Wii U: 25k

3DS: 65k

I hope that you at least mean before new 3ds/xl...


N3DS will cause spikes upon release but won't stop the decline, it will merely slow it down at this point, I do not think it will in any way prevent the 3DS overall to have some pretty bad weeks over the course of 2015 either, news value alone cannot carry extra momentum for 52 weeks on a global scale to prevent this. I think that both the 3DS and the Xbox One will have a fairly spiky sales curve in 2015, with one being up yoy and the other being down.



tak13 on 15 December 2014
Mummelmann said:
tak13 said:
Mummelmann said:
3DS had one week at around 91k this year, it will likely be heavily down yoy next year and might dip into the high 60's or low 70's, in my opinion. The Wii U had at least one week below 30k this year (around 28k), there's no way the worst week will be over twice as good as that, with only one true major software release for the year and a bunch of second-tier games along with it, the summer will be brutal. I also believe the Wii U will be down at least 10-15% yoy in 2015 compared to 2014.

PS4 was never under 130k in 2014 as far as I know, so 120k sounds a bit low, it will be up yoy for sure at will likely see better average weeks due to that. Then again; it might dip below 120k as well; these are fickle times for home consoles.

I think the One could go below 80k at its worst, it had several weeks in the low 50's this year and the price cut is only temporary, not to mention that it still only has two major regions where it moves significant numbers (US and UK). I think the One will have a great year and be up a sizeable amount yoy but it might see some paltry weeks, I can easily see it falling below 80k on several occassions. A few slow week in the US is all it takes to offset global numbers a great deal.

My guess would be:

PS4: 135k

One: 65k

Wii U: 25k

3DS: 65k

I hope that you at least mean before new 3ds/xl...


N3DS will cause spikes upon release but won't stop the decline, it will merely slow it down at this point, I do not think it will in any way prevent the 3DS overall to have some pretty bad weeks over the course of 2015 either, news value alone cannot carry extra momentum for 52 weeks on a global scale to prevent this. I think that both the 3DS and the Xbox One will have a fairly spiky sales curve in 2015, with one being up yoy and the other being down.

Oh you re pessimistic for the whole indursty.:(

In Japan at least it stopped the 50% decline,got it yoy up(for Media create) and new3d/xl outpaces dsi!

Personally,I cannot understand this pessimism for 3DS,revisions were always helping sales!It can sell to the current customers and that's a big advantage?Isn't it in your opinion?



aLkaLiNE on 15 December 2014

PS4 - 147k
WiiU - 35k
X1 - 65k

These are not baselines, this is the lowest I think each console will dip for 2015. Ps4 will have an extremely strong year due to being relevant in nearly all markets, along with the Chinese launch during their holidays. I only expect sales to dip to 147k during summer, and I'm being pessimistic with this prediction.

 

With a performance disadvantage and lack of major exclusive IP until presumably Q3, there isnt much reason beyond friends to buy an x1 for most of the year. I see sales dropping quick after Christmas with an overall dip down to 65k, possibly more than once. I'm considering this an optimistic prediction.

 

WiiU is hard. Despite everything though Nintendo has had trouble spurring sales. I think baseline might be close to 50k with a drop to 35k once or twice and many small upward trends as new games role out. For all we know the baseline could steadily climb all year. I expect Amiibo to do well.



tak13 on 15 December 2014

I cannot post!I don't know the situation for non N-consoles!It would be unfair to post without knowing some facts for other consoles!Can someone,inform me for XBONE/PS4 in order to decide?

For xb1,price is a huge a drawback but if it doesn't face a drought,its sales won't plummet!I will explain my opinion for the price!
Who can gurantee that a lot of people who were planning anywise to buy xb1,doing it now because is quite cheaper and after price going back to the normal in 2015,sales wouldn't drop severely?



JustBeingReal on 15 December 2014

PS4 didn't drop below 144K after TLOU came out, so for around 5 months it's not been below that.
The system launches in China on the 11th of Jan.

Wii U has a fair few exclusives dropping and major games in Zelda and Starfox, Splatoon looks like it'll be hella fun and I think that will have a great effect on it's numbers.

IMO baselines for system's will be as follows:

PS4 175K (though after China Launch I think PS4 won't drop below 190K).
3DS 100K
Wii U 70K
XB1 60K (75K if the price stays as it is now).
PSV 40K

By baseline I mean the lowest sales per week that the consoles will reach in 2015.