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Forums - General Discussion - John Mccain Won the Republican Nomination. Your thoughts?

TheSource on 04 March 2008

I'm pretty sure he'd beat Hilary.

I don't think he'd beat Obama.

I made these two estimates the other day. Column one is electoral votes, followed by population in millions, percentage white, black, asian or hispanic in the state. Whites, Blacks, Asians and Hispanics have voted consistently so far so I just applied those voting patterns to the entire state...

So this is for Obama vs. Mccain

 

State Electorial  Population White Black Asian Hispanic Other Mccain  Obama 
California 55 36.5 0.431 0.067 0.124 0.359 0.019 0.53126 0.468745
Texas 34 23.5 0.483 0.119 0.034 0.357 0.007 0.51662 0.483385
New York 31 19.3 0.6 0.17 0.069 0.161 0 0.4769 0.5231
Florida 27 18.1 0.613 0.158 0.022 0.202 0.005 0.48779 0.51221
Illinois 21 12.8 0.653 0.15 0.042 0.147 0.008 0.48442 0.515585
Pennsylvania 21 12.4 0.821 0.107 0.024 0.042 0.006 0.49183 0.50817
Ohio 20 11.5 0.829 0.12 0.015 0.023 0.013 0.48537 0.51463
Michigan 17 10.1 0.777 0.143 0.024 0.039 0.017 0.47754 0.522465
New Jersey 15 8.7 0.626 0.145 0.073 0.156 0 0.48571 0.514295
Georgia 15 9.4 0.589 0.299 0.028 0.075 0.009 0.4217 0.578305
North Carolina 15 8.9 0.679 0.217 0.019 0.067 0.018 0.45232 0.54768
Virginia 13 7.6 0.677 0.199 0.048 0.063 0.013 0.45734 0.542665
Massachusetts 12 6.4 0.8 0.069 0.049 0.079 0.003 0.5085 0.4915
Washington 11 6.4 0.765 0.036 0.066 0.091 0.042 0.52008 0.479925
Tennesse 11 6 0.775 0.169 0.013 0.032 0.011 0.46778 0.532225
Misouri 11 5.8 0.826 0.115 0.014 0.028 0.017 0.48768 0.51232
Indiana 11 6.3 0.839 0.089 0.013 0.048 0.011 0.4997 0.500305
Minnesota 10 5.2 0.859 0.045 0.035 0.038 0.023 0.5139 0.486105
Wisconsin 10 5.6 0.857 0.06 0.02 0.047 0.016 0.51009 0.489915
Arizona 10 6.2 0.597 0.038 0.024 0.292 0.049 0.54051 0.45949
Maryland 10 5.6 0.584 0.295 0.049 0.06 0.012 0.42055 0.579455
Colorado 9 4.8 0.717 0.041 0.026 0.197 0.019 0.53114 0.468865
Lousiaina 9 4.3 0.628 0.317 0.014 0.029 0.012 0.41117 0.588835
Alabama 9 4.6 0.69 0.263 0.009 0.025 0.013 0.43155 0.56845
Kentucky 8 4.2 0.884 0.075 0.01 0.02 0.011 0.50252 0.49748
South Carolina 8 4.3 0.654 0.29 0.011 0.035 0.01 0.42222 0.57778
Connecticut 7 3.5 0.748 0.102 0.034 0.112 0.004 0.49989 0.50011
Oregon 7 3.7 0.81 0.019 0.036 0.102 0.033 0.5295 0.4705
Iowa 7 3 0.91 0.025 0.016 0.038 0.011 0.5229 0.4771
Oklahoma 7 3.6 0.721 0.078 0.017 0.069 0.115 0.50253 0.49747
Kansas 6 2.8 0.811 0.06 0.022 0.086 0.021 0.51353 0.48647
Arkansas 6 2.8 0.764 0.157 0.01 0.05 0.019 0.47397 0.52603
Mississippi 6 2.9 0.593 0.371 0.008 0.018 0.01 0.38999 0.61001
Utah 5 2.6 0.829 0.01 0.02 0.112 0.029 0.53487 0.46513
Nevada 5 2.5 0.589 0.079 0.06 0.244 0.028 0.51902 0.48098
Nebraska 5 1.8 0.849 0.044 0.017 0.074 0.016 0.5189 0.481105
West Virginia 5 1.8 0.941 0.033 0.006 0.009 0.011 0.51766 0.482345
New Mexico 5 2 0.428 0.025 0.013 0.44 0.094 0.55877 0.441235
Idaho 4 1.5 0.863 0.007 0.011 0.095 0.024 0.53504 0.46496
Hawaii 4 1.3 0.247 0.025 0.4 0.078 0.25 0.49841 0.50159
New Hampshire 4 1.3 0.938 0.011 0.019 0.023 0.009 0.52669 0.47331
Rhode Island 4 1.1 0.796 0.063 0.027 0.11 0.004 0.51491 0.485095
Maine 4 1.3 0.958 0.008 0.009 0.01 0.015 0.52697 0.473035
Vermont 3 0.6 0.957 0.007 0.011 0.011 0.014 0.52736 0.47264
Washington DC 3 0.6 0.317 0.565 0.032 0.082 0.004 0.32121 0.67879
Alaska 3 0.7 0.664 0.037 0.046 0.056 0.197 0.51282 0.48718
Montana 3 0.9 0.887 0.004 0.006 0.025 0.078 0.52819 0.471815
Wyoming 3 0.5 0.881 0.009 0.007 0.069 0.034 0.53173 0.46827
North Dakota 3 0.6 0.904 0.008 0.007 0.017 0.064 0.52627 0.47373
South Dakota 3 0.8 0.866 0.009 0.007 0.021 0.097 0.52528 0.47472
Delaware 3 0.9 0.69 0.209 0.028 0.063 0.01 0.45473 0.545275


Same thing for Mccain vs. Clinton

State El. Votes Population White Black Asian Hispanic Other Mccain  Clinton
California 55 36.5 0.431 0.067 0.124 0.359 0.019 0.50795 0.492055
Texas 34 23.5 0.483 0.119 0.034 0.357 0.007 0.4967 0.503305
New York 31 19.3 0.6 0.17 0.069 0.161 0 0.48165 0.518355
Florida 27 18.1 0.613 0.158 0.022 0.202 0.005 0.48786 0.51214
Illinois 21 12.8 0.653 0.15 0.042 0.147 0.008 0.49049 0.509515
Pennsylvania 21 12.4 0.821 0.107 0.024 0.042 0.006 0.50952 0.49048
Ohio 20 11.5 0.829 0.12 0.015 0.023 0.013 0.50573 0.494275
Michigan 17 10.1 0.777 0.143 0.024 0.039 0.017 0.49645 0.503555
New Jersey 15 8.7 0.626 0.145 0.073 0.156 0 0.49024 0.50976
Georgia 15 9.4 0.589 0.299 0.028 0.075 0.009 0.44107 0.558935
North Carolina 15 8.9 0.679 0.217 0.019 0.067 0.018 0.47015 0.529855
Virginia 13 7.6 0.677 0.199 0.048 0.063 0.013 0.47477 0.525235
Massachusetts 12 6.4 0.8 0.069 0.049 0.079 0.003 0.5203 0.479705
Washington 11 6.4 0.765 0.036 0.066 0.091 0.042 0.52841 0.471595
Tennesse 11 6 0.775 0.169 0.013 0.032 0.011 0.48859 0.51141
Misouri 11 5.8 0.826 0.115 0.014 0.028 0.017 0.50722 0.49278
Indiana 11 6.3 0.839 0.089 0.013 0.048 0.011 0.51619 0.48381
Minnesota 10 5.2 0.859 0.045 0.035 0.038 0.023 0.5297 0.4703
Wisconsin 10 5.6 0.857 0.06 0.02 0.047 0.016 0.52563 0.474375
Arizona 10 6.2 0.597 0.038 0.024 0.292 0.049 0.52527 0.47473
Maryland 10 5.6 0.584 0.295 0.049 0.06 0.012 0.44122 0.55878
Colorado 9 4.8 0.717 0.041 0.026 0.197 0.019 0.52796 0.472045
Lousiaina 9 4.3 0.628 0.317 0.014 0.029 0.012 0.43675 0.563255
Alabama 9 4.6 0.69 0.263 0.009 0.025 0.013 0.45605 0.543955
Kentucky 8 4.2 0.884 0.075 0.01 0.02 0.011 0.522 0.478
South Carolina 8 4.3 0.654 0.29 0.011 0.035 0.01 0.44636 0.553645
Connecticut 7 3.5 0.748 0.102 0.034 0.112 0.004 0.50892 0.49108
Oregon 7 3.7 0.81 0.019 0.036 0.102 0.033 0.53663 0.46337
Iowa 7 3 0.91 0.025 0.016 0.038 0.011 0.53863 0.46137
Oklahoma 7 3.6 0.721 0.078 0.017 0.069 0.115 0.51404 0.485965
Kansas 6 2.8 0.811 0.06 0.022 0.086 0.021 0.52426 0.47574
Arkansas 6 2.8 0.764 0.157 0.01 0.05 0.019 0.49215 0.50785
Mississippi 6 2.9 0.593 0.371 0.008 0.018 0.01 0.41864 0.58136
Utah 5 2.6 0.829 0.01 0.02 0.112 0.029 0.54085 0.45915
Nevada 5 2.5 0.589 0.079 0.06 0.244 0.028 0.51065 0.48935
Nebraska 5 1.8 0.849 0.044 0.017 0.074 0.016 0.53076 0.46924
West Virginia 5 1.8 0.941 0.033 0.006 0.009 0.011 0.53726 0.462745
New Mexico 5 2 0.428 0.025 0.013 0.44 0.094 0.52464 0.47536
Idaho 4 1.5 0.863 0.007 0.011 0.095 0.024 0.54321 0.456795
Hawaii 4 1.3 0.247 0.025 0.4 0.078 0.25 0.4988 0.5012
New Hampshire 4 1.3 0.938 0.011 0.019 0.023 0.009 0.5438 0.456205
Rhode Island 4 1.1 0.796 0.063 0.027 0.11 0.004 0.52311 0.47689
Maine 4 1.3 0.958 0.008 0.009 0.01 0.015 0.54557 0.45443
Vermont 3 0.6 0.957 0.007 0.011 0.011 0.014 0.54581 0.454195
Washington DC 3 0.6 0.317 0.565 0.032 0.082 0.004 0.34776 0.65224
Alaska 3 0.7 0.664 0.037 0.046 0.056 0.197 0.52258 0.47742
Montana 3 0.9 0.887 0.004 0.006 0.025 0.078 0.54366 0.456345
Wyoming 3 0.5 0.881 0.009 0.007 0.069 0.034 0.54294 0.457065
North Dakota 3 0.6 0.904 0.008 0.007 0.017 0.064 0.54309 0.456915
South Dakota 3 0.8 0.866 0.009 0.007 0.021 0.097 0.54099 0.459015
Delaware 3 0.9 0.69 0.209 0.028 0.063 0.01 0.47282 0.527185

 



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ssj12 on 04 March 2008

i so didnt see this coming /sarcasm

now Obama needs to win



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CaptainPrefrences on 04 March 2008

wow lol it seems like the minorities dont like him. and thats coming from a black person.

you know what i just realized? if john mcain wins he will be the oldest elected, ir obama wins he will be the first black elected, and if hilary wins, she will be the first woman elected.

should be interesting.



PooperScooper on 04 March 2008

Tell your daddy tell your momma John McCain will beat Obama.



dabaus513 on 04 March 2008

Never saw it coming. Hopefully he'll turn his lack luster campaign around.



 

 

 

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Legend11 on 04 March 2008

I'm Canadian and was originally hoping for Obama to become President but after hearing that both he and Hillary want to renegotiate the North America Free Trade Agreement I now hope McCain wins.



loadedstatement on 04 March 2008

Ehh not to keen on McCain. I'll vote Obama for sure. (looks like hes neck and neck with Hil in Texa$)



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ssj12 on 04 March 2008
loadedstatement said:
Ehh not to keen on McCain. I'll vote Obama for sure. (looks like hes neck and neck with Hil in Texa$)

 Hilary won Rhodo Island and Obama won Vermont, their tie wont end



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stof on 04 March 2008

John McCain is easily the Republican I trust most. I respect his ability to reach accross the floor and his integrity and honesty.

That said, I just can't agree with some of his policies and my support tends to plummet once he talks about International relations.



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Wonktonodi on 04 March 2008

Interesting to apply the voting patters but the idea of McCain taking California is very very unlilkely