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Forums - Sales Discussion - Call of Duty Decline Discussion

 

Call of Duty Franchise Status

Fatigued 78 46.71%
 
Declining 73 43.71%
 
Replenishing 16 9.58%
 
Total:167

Now we are in the next gen they should take a trip back to WW2 for COD. I never really liked COD (personally) after it came out of that era. Modern Warfare 1 was OK but I preffered the old settings of WW2 for a shooter. Hell, if they just released a disc with all the maps on from COD2, COD3, World At War and spruced them up a bit for the modern consoles I'd be all over it.



PREDICTIONS FOR END OF 2015: (Made Jan 1st 2015)

PS4 - 34M - XB1 - 21m - WII U -12M

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Also digital is getting bigger and bigger as time passes, so the actual decline may be smaller than it appears.



Teeqoz said:
Also digital is getting bigger and bigger as time passes, so the actual decline may be smaller than it appears.

I thought NPD included digital sales in their reports too.



My bet with The_Liquid_Laser: I think the Switch won't surpass the PS2 as the best selling system of all time. If it does, I'll play a game of a list that The_Liquid_Laser will provide, I will have to play it for 50 hours or complete it, whatever comes first. 

I really want to try this game out but I don't want to buy it. I already have BF4 and I feel like this would just be redundant. More companies need to start releasing demos of their games after they've been out for like a month. At that point you wont hurt sales with a demo and you might even help sales.



Its boring, offers very little.
Played out, needs a major rethinking.



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Metallox said:
Teeqoz said:
Also digital is getting bigger and bigger as time passes, so the actual decline may be smaller than it appears.

I thought NPD included digital sales in their reports too.


We don't. We only get digital numbers from the different companies' PR.



All I know is my friend at work gave me CoD for PS4 so I could play with him. I'm an asshole so I planned on trading it in for TLoU since it was worth about $40+. I waited a few days and NOW, it's worth about $22. So......yeah.



Cod4:MW released when 360 and PS3 were 13M and 6M install base respectively, which is slightly less than the combined install bases of PS4/Xb one at AW launch.

MW's 2 platform LTD is ~15.5M. AW's current PS4bone LTD is 6.6M +



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

binary solo said:
Cod4:MW released when 360 and PS3 were 13M and 6M install base respectively, which is slightly less than the combined install bases of PS4/Xb one at AW launch.

MW's 2 platform LTD is ~15.5M. AW's current PS4bone LTD is 6.6M + <20% digital sales(?) ~ 9million. So I don't think there's a lot of merit to the argument that PS4bone install base is too low. I also don't buy the whole generation transition thing, at least not to the extent suggested. The game is cross gen, which means the casuals who don't upgrade to the new gen until years 2-4 are still able to get their CoD fix on old gen units, and there is no reason for them to not buy it, other than franchise fatigue.

IMO CoD has peaked and it will never reach the heights of MW / Blops era. But it will continue to be one of the bigger selling annual releases. If Activision are getting into panic stations because their CoD franchise is selling slightly under 20 million on PS4bone (and how many millions on PC) per year then there is something wrong with their business model.

Thank you. You offered another way of looking at it, comparing the install bases and lining up the releases. And fair enough if you think CoD has reached a fatigued state, considering numbers show this ,your right.

But how can one explain how AW has already outsold Ghosts by a big margin on next gen platforms in only a month? Yes the game is cross gen but we are talking about casual gamers who buy more games in their first two years, hence why CoD sales go up when hardware sales go up. Another point is that 8th gen is growing twice as fast as 7th gen and (surprise, surprise) so is CoD. MW1 sold 15.5 million; MW2 (two years later) then sold 24 million which is a gain of about 55% over MW1. Ghosts sold 5 million on 8th gen; AW (only one year later) has sold 6.6 million on 8th gen so far. I think its safe to say AW will get a few million more sales once december and the rest of 2015 is through. I see AW gaining 70% of sales over ghosts in 8th gen and next years CoD should be even bigger and the year after that I see CoD getting back to around the same number that MW2 generated (maybe not 25-28 million, but still close).

I don't see why Activision would be worried. I read an article with some proffessional journalist talking about how Activision should be worried since CoD isn't selling as well as before and  how Destiny couldn't fill in the gap. This is why I made this thread in the first place because I don't agree with this at all. Activision is raking in money with CoD every year and will continue to do so while being one of, if not the biggest selling game on a yearly basis. What's to worry about when you have the biggest franchise in 8th gen?



Miguel_Zorro said:

I still disagree with this. I'll take the PS3 because I don't have time to go through everything.  

Let's look at the claim "Why do COD sales go up and down in the exact years that hardware go up and down?" Answer - they don't.  The biggest year for Call of Duty sales on the PS3 was 2012. That year, 13.7 million units of Call of Duty sold. 10,051,889 from Black Ops 2, which was the biggest COD game to date, 2,232,890 from MW3, and so on.

In 2012, PS3 console sales dropped, to 12,150,117.  Even though PS3 console sales were lower than year, COD sales were higher.

In 2013, PS3 console sales dropped again, to 8,252,038, but the console had its best ever year for non-COD software sales. 136,785,833 software units were sold on the PS3 that year, meaning that Call of Duty sales declined relative to other software sales.

Yes, there's a correlation, but there's also a correlation between these things...

http://twentytwowords.com/funny-graphs-show-correlation-between-completely-unrelated-stats-9-pictures/

Call of Duty peaked with the Modern Warfare games.  Black Ops was solid too. Ghosts just wasn't as well received, and Advanced Warfare hasn't reversed the trend.  Even if you add the PS3 and PS4 COD sales together, Advanced Warfare isn't going to match the launch sales of Modern Warfare 3 or Black Ops 2.

Since you only focused on PS3 (half the CoD market) and left out the 360 (the other half of the market) you can't say its fact that CoD sales were higher in 2012 than they were in 2011 because they weren't when you include the 360 in it as well which is what I'm talking about.

CoD sales were higher in 2012 than they were in 2011? Nope. BO2 is the biggest CoD title to date? Nope. BUT, CoD sales were higher on PS3 in 2012 than they were in 2011 but on the 360 it was a different story. BO2 was the biggest selling CoD on the PS3 but BO2 360 version was more than a million behind MW3 on the 360. MW3 is the biggest CoD to date and CoD sold more in 2011 than it did in 2012. CoD peaked in 2011, hardware sales (for both consoles combined) peaked in 2011 and that's that. Ever since 2012 CoD and hardware sales have been down YOY for the 7th generation. You can look up the info yourself or you can trust me but the data all adds up, CoD's decline matches the 7th gen hardware decline which is what was originally stated.

Those graphs were funny but the difference is there's 'direct' correlations here, correlations that make sense, not random ones. And of course AW isn't going to reverse the trend for 7th gen but it already has for the 8th generation by a good margin, and I'm not even counting digital sales.

Edit --- I'm not stating that CoD WILL climb back to 30 million, I'm just putting forth numbers in the database that suggest it could get back to its 25 million annual copies based off of my obvervation of those numbers. If I'm coming off aggressive (which I understand I do sometimes) then that's not how I mean it. I'm just giving my strong opinion on the matter.