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Forums - Sales Discussion - When's the Xbox One gonna overtake the PS4 in the US?

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When will the Xbone overtake the PS4 in the U.S.?

Late 2014 32 2.87%
 
1st half of 2015 51 4.57%
 
2nd half of 2015 92 8.25%
 
1st half of 2016 22 1.97%
 
2nd half of 2016 12 1.08%
 
2017 6 0.54%
 
2018 and beyond 10 0.90%
 
Never 794 71.21%
 
See results 95 8.52%
 
Total:1,114
Dark_Feanor on 10 December 2014
Intrinsic said:

Wow this thread... what I find even more shocking are the amount of people that think this is possible.

Here are a few things I would like to chime in. Whats the reason for this XB1 sales uptick? Is it generally considered the better console or is it the better deal this holiday season? Will the price drop be permanent?What happens from January onwards? I will not comment on answers to those questions and will take a wait and see approach.

But I wonder, what happens when next year around the time of Uncharted 4 the PS4 is priced at $299? Its shocking how just a month or two can suddenly make some think thats all that's required for an XB1 win. At this rate, to fight a PS4 at $299, MS would need to sell an XB1 at $220 with a free game. Thing about price wars, is that theer is a point where they don't matter anymore.   I also think a lot here haven't actually looked at the kinda year the PS4 is primed to have in 2015. If they did threads like these wouldn't exist. I also find it strange that some here don't realize that its more important for th XB1 to win on the slow months of the year (first 8-10 months) than to win in just the last 2 months of the year. Basically what MS is doing is treating an infection rather than treat the wound causing the infection.

But to answer the question, I will say Never. Come next year, the gap will start to grow again, though the XB1 will no doubt slow the rate at which that gap grows in NA while it becomes uncontrollably worse everywhere else. 


Why do you think Uncharted 4 will do what Uncharted 2/3 and The Last of Us failed to achieve in the USA?

The only game that boosted the PS3 over the 360 was GTA V.

Of course you are assuming a 25% price slash from Sony. A thing that is only wishfull thinking. And what would they do that if they were outselling the competition?

Either Sony cut the price because the XOne is closing the race or they keep as high as possible;



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Augen on 10 December 2014
steverhcp02 said:
So much wrong with this thread and the OP assumptions. Think about this. Sony has not touched the PS4's price. In fact I believe they actually raised it at one point in Canada but I can't recall if it was a single store chain or not. So you have MSFT, in 12 months coming out with a separate SKU at $100 less entry, then cutting another $50 in a "temporary" price cut and bundling 1-2 free games on top of this. Keep in mind Sony has not yet even touched the price.

Price cuts are pendulums. The assumptions that A) Price gap will forever remain B) MSFT will be willing to bundle free games forever at $350 and C) When the PS4 has its first price drop it wont dwarf the ground MSFT gained with the aforementioned pricing strategy (hint, it will) is asinine.

It is always fascinating to me how narrow people's visions are. It is literally the last week in history, like a snapshot, with no recollection or reference to past events and then extrapolating the narrow vision forward not accounting for anything but the unsustainable best case scenario of said snapshot.

I really don't think people fully understand how significant the price of the console going from $500 to $350 with 1-2 free games, two marquee games, no less, in less than a year is and to only gain a couple hundred thousand units when your competitor did arguably NOTHING. As always, the peaks and valleys of knee jerk reactions triumph on this site. Someone save this post and lets talk in 8 months, but then again I am not sure if most will have the attention span given the recent sales discussion in light of the unprecedented and lopsided strategies of the last month.


The internet personifies the hyperbole of the present.



Dark_Feanor on 10 December 2014
steverhcp02 said:
So much wrong with this thread and the OP assumptions. Think about this. Sony has not touched the PS4's price. In fact I believe they actually raised it at one point in Canada but I can't recall if it was a single store chain or not. So you have MSFT, in 12 months coming out with a separate SKU at $100 less entry, then cutting another $50 in a "temporary" price cut and bundling 1-2 free games on top of this. Keep in mind Sony has not yet even touched the price.

Price cuts are pendulums. The assumptions that A) Price gap will forever remain B) MSFT will be willing to bundle free games forever at $350 and C) When the PS4 has its first price drop it wont dwarf the ground MSFT gained with the aforementioned pricing strategy (hint, it will) is asinine.

It is always fascinating to me how narrow people's visions are. It is literally the last week in history, like a snapshot, with no recollection or reference to past events and then extrapolating the narrow vision forward not accounting for anything but the unsustainable best case scenario of said snapshot.

I really don't think people fully understand how significant the price of the console going from $500 to $350 with 1-2 free games, two marquee games, no less, in less than a year is and to only gain a couple hundred thousand units when your competitor did arguably NOTHING. As always, the peaks and valleys of knee jerk reactions triumph on this site. Someone save this post and lets talk in 8 months, but then again I am not sure if most will have the attention span given the recent sales discussion in light of the unprecedented and lopsided strategies of the last month.


The competion keept the price $100 lower for at least 6 months.

Last month had nothing we haven´t seen in past years. Sony blundle GTAV and  TLoU at $399, it was basic the same deal of the XOne AC-U, only the later was $50 cheaper.

Bundle can only to that much. Even Destiny bundles didn´t performe as good as expected after the first weeks.

Price WAS and IS the major reason for any gap.



maverick40 on 10 December 2014

The PS4 would have to stop selling in the US for it to overtake it.



alrightiwill on 10 December 2014

To the 4 people who think by the end of 2014... really?? I know XBO is doing really well but to overturn 800K against one of the best selling consoles is an extremely tall order, ridiculous in fact to think it's reasonable.

As for 2015, I imagine it will progress similar to 2014. PS4 winning month on month and regaining whatever it loses in Dec & Nov.

My guess is lifetime for the gap between PS4 and XBO in the USA to be around 500k



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Burek on 10 December 2014

Never, or maybe even later than that.



saarr_x on 10 December 2014

Lol wishfull thinking, but that's never going to happen. The PS4 has won, even in the US. Just accept it.



Jimbo1337 on 10 December 2014

Never

I also find it funny that the poll is like a $100 dollar "ask the audience" question on Who Wants to Be a Millionaire.



steverhcp02 on 10 December 2014
Dark_Feanor said:
Intrinsic said:

Wow this thread... what I find even more shocking are the amount of people that think this is possible.

Here are a few things I would like to chime in. Whats the reason for this XB1 sales uptick? Is it generally considered the better console or is it the better deal this holiday season? Will the price drop be permanent?What happens from January onwards? I will not comment on answers to those questions and will take a wait and see approach.

But I wonder, what happens when next year around the time of Uncharted 4 the PS4 is priced at $299? Its shocking how just a month or two can suddenly make some think thats all that's required for an XB1 win. At this rate, to fight a PS4 at $299, MS would need to sell an XB1 at $220 with a free game. Thing about price wars, is that theer is a point where they don't matter anymore.   I also think a lot here haven't actually looked at the kinda year the PS4 is primed to have in 2015. If they did threads like these wouldn't exist. I also find it strange that some here don't realize that its more important for th XB1 to win on the slow months of the year (first 8-10 months) than to win in just the last 2 months of the year. Basically what MS is doing is treating an infection rather than treat the wound causing the infection.

But to answer the question, I will say Never. Come next year, the gap will start to grow again, though the XB1 will no doubt slow the rate at which that gap grows in NA while it becomes uncontrollably worse everywhere else. 


Why do you think Uncharted 4 will do what Uncharted 2/3 and The Last of Us failed to achieve in the USA?

The only game that boosted the PS3 over the 360 was GTA V.

Of course you are assuming a 25% price slash from Sony. A thing that is only wishfull thinking. And what would they do that if they were outselling the competition?

Either Sony cut the price because the XOne is closing the race or they keep as high as possible;

This is your (and everyone who is still grasping) problem. Youre completely ignoring the tidal wave shift of the last 12 months and still pointing back to an age where the PS3 kicked itself in the crotch for 5 years. We have a solid 10-12 months of data that shows of current generation figures and trends to go by but get ignored. 

Destiny, and a bundle, albeit white, for $10 off the price of the game and console managed to outsell the One by over 200,000 units in september witht he same software available, while a 50$ price advantage with free games for an entire month versus a single weekend of a bundle for $50 more of the PS4 saw similar results and the ONE had a white bundle available as well if we want to over emphasis teh cosmetic nature f the destiny bump. Keep in mind this is during the biggest shopping season of the year versus Spetember. Perspective.




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Giggs_11 on 10 December 2014
steverhcp02 said:
So much wrong with this thread and the OP assumptions. Think about this. Sony has not touched the PS4's price. In fact I believe they actually raised it at one point in Canada but I can't recall if it was a single store chain or not. So you have MSFT, in 12 months coming out with a separate SKU at $100 less entry, then cutting another $50 in a "temporary" price cut and bundling 1-2 free games on top of this. Keep in mind Sony has not yet even touched the price.

Price cuts are pendulums. The assumptions that A) Price gap will forever remain B) MSFT will be willing to bundle free games forever at $350 and C) When the PS4 has its first price drop it wont dwarf the ground MSFT gained with the aforementioned pricing strategy (hint, it will) is asinine.

It is always fascinating to me how narrow people's visions are. It is literally the last week in history, like a snapshot, with no recollection or reference to past events and then extrapolating the narrow vision forward not accounting for anything but the unsustainable best case scenario of said snapshot.

I really don't think people fully understand how significant the price of the console going from $500 to $350 with 1-2 free games, two marquee games, no less, in less than a year is and to only gain a couple hundred thousand units when your competitor did arguably NOTHING. As always, the peaks and valleys of knee jerk reactions triumph on this site. Someone save this post and lets talk in 8 months, but then again I am not sure if most will have the attention span given the recent sales discussion in light of the unprecedented and lopsided strategies of the last month.

I don't fully agree with what you said.

1) Sony never touched PS4's price? Does it cost as much as it did when it came out 1 year ago? And also with no games?

2) X1 didn't go from 500$ to 350$ only from price cuts. 100$ out of those 150$, if I recall correctly, are due to kinnect not being bundled. In my book that ain't a price cut.

3) Also, X1 without Kinnect is a weaker PS4 in terms of hardware, am I right? So, and I'm talking without profund knowledge on the matter, but wouldn't that mean X1 as more room for manoeuvre to lower X1s price? Just raising the question.

Having said that I agree that people are extrapolating1-2 months of sales not considering other 12 months of sales and that makes no sense. I don't see X1 ever overtaking the PS4 in the US or anywhere else. But stranger things have happened...