binary solo said:
At the moment the monthly gap is 186K If PS4 does 600K and Xb one does 410K for BF week that's not absolutely dominating but it would give PS4 a narow win. But I would be surprised if PS4 did win BF week by more than 100K. So I expect Xb one will take November. |
re you going by VGchartz numbers?
Kerotan said:
re you going by VGchartz numbers? |
Yep, we don't have anything more accurate right now.
“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell
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binary solo said:
Yep, we don't have anything more accurate right now. |
i know yeah just asking. i would say the gap is smaller considering they over tracked X1 for October. SO the triples sales in November is smaller than shown on here. That adds up for me because November total for AMazon so far shows the X1 ahead but not ahead by that much.
| brute said:
I can't provide that because by the time I went in Xbox One was sold out while PS4 still had two carts(Xbox one's were I believe in pallet not in carts). The only thing is we won't know for sure who shipped more, many believe it was Sony, but we shall see, also I said November because I believe the three first weeks it outsold it(vgchartz, amazon and other online retailers), and I used BF for December number, proving because there is more demand for Xbox One since many were pre ordering from now for before christmas, while that wasn't the case with PS4, and again I believe there were no pre-ordering for PS4 because there was stock. I believe the thing that will decide December is if Microsoft can produce more units than PS'4 demand, as I believe Xbox One will sell out in December, and to this I say I believe they will, hence my prediction. but only time will tell. |
I dont think you quite get it. I can almost guarantee that Sony had more stock than Micrsoft at any current retailer. Let me take out the product names to simplify:
Say you have product A and product B which is sold to the same type of consumer. All year long, product A is selling considerably less than Product B. So, when the time comes to buy large quantities of both product A and product B for Black Friday, as a store clerk, which product would you buy more of? You would stock up on considerably larger amounts of product B since it has been selling that much more.
Just think about it. If you are sitting on past SKU bundles of a product, wouldn't you be wary of buying a large shipment of a ton of new bundles?
You make it sound like Microsoft wasn't prepared for this black friday and couldn't make as many consoles as Sony. Do you honestly feel that a company as big as Microsoft would let that happen? Of course not! It all comes down to each individual retailer only buying a certain amount of your product. So it doesn't amaze me to hear that it took a longer time for the PS4 to sell all of their units in comparison to the XB1.
As i said more time, i think that XO don't will win November NPD because, after a super boost thanks pricedrop and CoD, it is little dropped the week of Halo+AC (but not bay much), and is massive dropped the week of 22 November (GTA and Far Cry is a PS marketing, and Dragnon Age isn't a sistem seller).
Don't forgot that the XO basis is 30K or less in the US, and now in the holidays probabily that withot game the basis is MAXIMUM double than before (60K).
So, i don't see XO to be costant above 200K for all week of November, i think that is probabily dropped 150K last week of month, and will sell between 350K and 400K the Black Friday week.
For December, i expect a 200-300K a week, so, more than 1,000,000 but less than 1,500,000 (1,250,000 for now is my bet).
So, for now i said:
November: 950,000
December: 1,250,000
PS4 will sell little more on November (some like 20,000-30,000 more), and much more on December (possible 400,000-500,000)
But is only my prediction, XO have good chance for win. :D
Everybody knows that sales within the first 2 hours count twice as much as sales later in the day.
If people would post anecdotes about SUPPLY it would be more interesting. Of course the bundles that are more aggressive will sell first but it is all about supply because I have no doubt that the shipments are done and its going to matter more than speed of the sales. But who cares about logic when we can hit refresh and measure our epeens with hourly ratings and updated facebook status. #lookatme.
I have a feeling that retailers didn´t order enough and MS are probably receiving alot of backorders right now in time for december.
| Puppyroach said: I have a feeling that retailers didn´t order enough and MS are probably receiving alot of backorders right now in time for december. |
Yeah I wonder what the buffer is for retailers orders for the holiday. Clearly, MSFT has made the AC bundle its default SKU as the base SKU directs people the AC bundle and it has never been out of stock consistently aside from right when it launced but even then it wasnt for long so MSFT was ready in this regard, the supply for the bundle has been good since its launch from a manufactering standpoint.
If all year the PS4 was in higher demand and unless MSFT said "this is what we are planning in November" all the way back in September I wonder how many retailers had faith in ordering a ton of One's. Will be interesting to see it play out over the next few weeks through the end of the year. It seems the demand is about even for the two currently given the holiday and pricedrop. I am far more interested in January through April at this point to see the sustainability on both sides.
| brute said: Yes I know that what I am about to post will be anecdotal. But I my Wal-Mart, Xbox one was the first one to sell out, while PS4 still had 2 carts left, and this was 1 hour and a half after the doors had opened. Now you could say that alright sure that probably proves November, but what about December? Well for that I have to say so many were asking for Xbox Ones after they were sold out and they were giving them the option to guarantee it in December, before christmas, which many were doing it, while for PS4 they didn't have this option(maybe because there was still a lot of stock). As for Wii U, Wal- Mart didn't even have an official bundle for it, which is a shame I really want it to do well. Microsoft should have really shipped more, they are missing out and most likely helping Sony a bit. And don't go around call me a fanboy or wishful thinking, because I like Playstation more than Xbox, I have never owned an Xbox and probably never will, while I have owned all Sony and Nintendo consoles and still do, except for the latest gen, still waiting for price drops. But Microsoft deserves this, they have done so much for this holidays, and even though I have never wanted to see them win, now I do atleast for the holidays. I can understand that Sony tried to focus more on profit and they also knew that they would sell well as it is, but they should have done a bit more or atleast include current gen games, and not just remasters/ports. Anyways, thoughts? Do you think Microsoft can pull it off? |
It is wishfull thinking, and they dont deserve it. They released a overpriced product and payed for their arrogance.
Now its where it should have been from day one.
That's okay as long as the gap is very close. Sony have done a great job despite not doing any king of panicking actions. Expect ps4 being ahead next year again.
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