I would have to think the install base would need to get closer to 15 million for any chance of the game selling 1 million units. I certainly hope so for both Nintendo/Monolith Soft but mostly for gamers. This is going to be a game everyone should play

Let's think of the time frame it will be released in, though. Considering if it's released next year, it should only be released between first-parties. This will get out enough advertising on time and build-up toward the hype and awareness from Nintendo Direct. Not to mention that if the Wii U strikes anyone's fancy, they should already have the Wii U by that time. We're probably looking at maybe 3-4mil sold from now to release date given the games that are out now (again, not counting the soon-to-be-released). This is a decent install base for Xenoblade, but the Wii U has so much potential this Holiday and into next year. 

You can be almost certain that most Wii U owners (people in their 20's), will be getting Xenoblade if they already have a Wii U.

If anything promotes Nintendo games the best, it's their Nintendo Direct. Giving us some 10 minutes on the game from the Direct will hopefully give the audience enough time to consider how gorgeous the game looks, and explanation in further detail about combat, story, and gameplay.

nope, will be hyped tho on the Internet, but since mario isn't in it good luck getting to the million mark