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Forums - Gaming - What the hell is wrong with Vgc Ps4 software tracking? (extremely overtracked in RoW)

DonFerrari on 26 November 2014
Zanten said:

I can never remember, does VGChartz try to guess digital sales as well as retail, or only retail?

Asking because there was a thread somewhere around here about how the PS4's software sales at retail had reached 50 million, if I remember correctly.  We could compare what we know about that announced figure to VGChartz's overall tracking on PS4 software; if nothing else, it would determine whether this is a case of general under tracking, or just some homeless numbers getting shunted over there because he doesn't know where to put them, but knows they sold somewhere. EDIT: Never mind about that, the thread is referencing VGChartz numbers. x3 Given all the details coming from that Investors thing that happened recently, I incorrectly thought it was another tidbit that had leaked from it.

And at some mentioned, given how nebulous the rest of world tracking is, there's also a chance that the hardware there is being undertracked, which would result in a higher attach rate.

Of course, This could just be a case of over tracking on the site's part, but your numbers aren't really confirming your conclusion outright. You just kind of seem to be picking your own interpretation and presenting it as fact. =P

As far as I know the only digital sales VGC tracks is bundled with HW.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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A_C_E on 26 November 2014
prinz_valium said:

did i said that?

but if u state, that ps4 software is most likely undertracked would u be that kind and give a source, hint, math, or anything else than just a bland statement to prove that?
what kind of base is that to argue about something?

Well thats just what it is, a bland statement. That's how I meant it since all I know is based off of VGChartz data which we both know is just estimates that typically don't translate to actual sales based on any given location in ROW. I'm going by the long lasting effect of VGChartz not knowing how to allocate in certain regions as well as heavily undertracking anything Playstation in almost all regions. Whenever new quarterly financial data comes in its PS that gets the highest bumps in units sold, its just so popular world wide and some areas are harder to track.

It is common practice for VGChartz to wrongfully allocate sales in certain regions, its also common practice for VGChartz to undertrack anything PS. I can't remember the last time PS was adjusted down, maybe I missed something I don't know.

I mean, what do you think? That just because you found an error in VGChartz tracking (gasp!!!) that PS software is overtracked? We have all known that allocation is a big problem in ROW since the beginning.

Its an estimate is all it is, and its usually within the 10% margin of error but people make mistakes. If it bugs someone so much and its never been fixed or never will be then why post the data at all or even discuss it? We all know its broken.



DJEVOLVE on 16 December 2014
prinz_valium said:
ethomaz said:
Seems to be Undertracked.

Sony shipped this year: 284m games across PS4 + PS3 + Vita + PSP.

VGC shows this year: 121m games sold across PS4 + PS4 + Vita + PSP.

A hell of undertracked.

completely wrong
u have this figures from where? the official earning release? that is revenue NOT units

a hell of overtracked in RoW


In his case it is always undertracked, even when overtracked.  That is what I have worked out from his comments.

Don't worry I will back you brah!



DJEVOLVE on 16 December 2014
prinz_valium said:
bubblegamer said:
Looks undertracked to me.


sure. just like xb1 sold 20m units already...

here is some other math i did that show why row ps4 software has to be overtracked based on watchdog as example  (from npd and pal charts we know that us and uk are at least some kind of accurate)

watchdogs sold just over 4m units in its first week  
watchdogs sold 10-12% of all units on pc
70% of pc sales for watchdog are digital
watchdogs sold about 10% of next gen digital
watchdogs sold 3-5% of last gen digital
watchdogs sold 2X on next gen compared to last gen
(this are all ubisoft own figures form the investor calling)
http://www.dsogaming.com/news/watch_dogs-pc-sales-10-12-next-gen-version-sold-2x-more-than-old-gen-version/

VGC retail numbers for first week:
1971k ps4
759k xb1
622,5k ps3
412,5k x360
113k pc retail

+ 273k next gen digital
+ 42k last gen digital
+ >300k pc digital

=  4.5m sales

here is how it should look:
~4.1m sales
~450k pc sales (315k digital, 135k retail)
~2500k next gen (250k digital, 2150k retail)
~1150k last gen (46k digital, 1106k retail)

2730k next gen retail only is overtracked. and with 300k less ps4 row sales and some other minor ajdustments it would fit at least the own ubisoft sales figures...

 

A_C_E said:

 

PS4 software is most likely undertacked as usual. Just because the software allocations are wrong doesn't mean the overall numbers are undertracked. You found an inconsistency in VGChartz numbers tracking, congratulations are in effect because this never happens.

did i said that?
but if u state, that ps4 software is most likely undertracked would u be that kind and give a source, hint, math, or anything else than just a bland statement to prove that?
what kind of base is that to argue about something?

 





gunner2k15 on 08 January 2015

seems like some1 was right on this, beside the hefty denie by many playstation fanboys

vgc ps4 Software (retail and bundles only) as of 27. december 2014: 82.8m
official ps4 Software (retail, bundles and digital*) as of 5th january 2015: 81.8m

*including even the cheap indie and arcade games


so over 10m overtracked if we use a conservativ 10% digital attachrate for AAA retail games and add just 2m indie/arcade sales

 

 

edit: this should ne be insulting on the vgc software tracking. its really not easy to estimate without a maring of error.
it's just about the guys who see only through theire pink glasses