Unless they make a deal with disney for licensed figures i'd say < 10m total.

Disney infinity and skylanders water down the market greatly, and frankly most kids would choose a disney character over a nintendo character.

I'm going to guess an average 1.2 amiibos per Wii U owner, so take that as you will.

Are we talking just the smash bros wii u ones or what? There are going to be more if they do well and will probably become a staple for Nintendo. So it's really hard to say

Really^ arent disney+skylanders still going strong? Also amiibos dont mainly target them (not saying it do just not primarily).

That said i think under 10mil is too low, if amiibos were ony for SSB and SSBU sells abut 5mil lifetime, thats an avg of 2 amiibos per consumer, the avg should be highr than that no? Question is how much. OF COURSE IT COULD DO WAT YOU SAID.......  And that be kinda bad :0

Thats assuming every single owner of the game, current and future, will actually buy them.

I kinda feel like these have more appeal than Skylanders and Infinity.

Skylanders characters are ... yes the franchise is popular the but characters are non entities.

Disney games have never been big on consoles, so I don't see that huge base (or even a chunk of it) that loves Disney buy their figures.

No it's not. He said the average.

i never said everyone, i said avg. Many people will buy 4,5,6, 10+. 

Example if 10 people bought all 48, that means 480 amiibos sold right? Well that makes up for 240 people right there. Im not saying alot of people will do this, but for every person who buys 6/8/10 amiibos puts the avg sold much higher.

Also like i pointed out, Its not only for SSB. Somebody like Curl from here doesn't play SSB but might like Zelda/star fox just for a costume for MK8. (cuzim sure not everybody with amiibo is a smash fan). Link is a gret example of this (HyruleWarriors!!)

They will be compatible with 3DS, so that should make a lot of amiibos sold.

Skylanders have far more appeal for people who like this kind of thing.