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Forums - Sales Discussion - WiiU Vs XB1 LTD: Xbox within 300k?

Seece on 20 November 2014
Teeqoz said:
Seece said:
Teeqoz said:
The XBO is more than 60k overtracked in the US BTW. With 170k in October, if we assume that the three first weeks were as low as 30k, that "only" leaves 80k for the third week (Which still seems high considering that everyone knew that they would be able to get it for 50$ cheaper within a week). If we then factor in the 3x more than last week statement, then that leaves us with 240k sold for Cod week, which is 40k less than what VGC has it at.

I think the US overtrack is roughly equal to the UK undertrack.

This seems much more fesiable. Didn't MS say "more than tripled" tho? *goes to check*

"Compared to the previous week, Xbox One sales in the US have more than tripled"


Eh, considering that I was fairly generous with the 4th week sales I think it should even out. But even if we use something like a 320% increase, that "only" puts Cod week numbers at 256k, while VGC has it at 297k (I thought it was 280 first, but then I checked) So we still end up with a 41k overtrack, and that's in the best case scenario for the XBO.

Were you??

"Compared to the previous week, Xbox One sales in the US have more than tripled, which is exciting as more and more friends will be playing together this holiday. As we head into the busy holiday season Xbox One led generation 8 console sales in the US for the past two weeks. "

So even the previous week before pre triple sales week, it outsold PS4, which averaged 74k a week in October.





 

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Welfare on 20 November 2014

When MS said "Xbox One sales in the US have more than tripled...", don't take it as a simple 3 x X amount. Last time MS gave a statement like that, they said Junes NPD numbers were more than 2x May, when in fact it was 2.56x May. (77,000 to 197,000).

So Microsofts "3x" statement can mean anywhere between 3x to upwards of 3.6x.



Won bet with t3mporary_126 - I correctly predicted that the Wii U's LTD at the end of 2014 would be closer to 9 million than 10 million. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6673287

Teeqoz on 20 November 2014
Seece said:
Teeqoz said:

Eh, considering that I was fairly generous with the 4th week sales I think it should even out. But even if we use something like a 320% increase, that "only" puts Cod week numbers at 256k, while VGC has it at 297k (I thought it was 280 first, but then I checked) So we still end up with a 41k overtrack, and that's in the best case scenario for the XBO.

Were you??

"Compared to the previous week, Xbox One sales in the US have more than tripled, which is exciting as more and more friends will be playing together this holiday. As we head into the busy holiday season Xbox One led generation 8 console sales in the US for the past two weeks. "

So even the previous week before pre triple sales week, it outsold PS4, which averaged 74k a week in October.


How much do you think the XBO sold in the 4th week? Yeah, I probably shouldn't have added that best case scenario thing at the end, because it's ofcourse possible that it could've done better, but I think my estimate is fairly likely, I'd say Cod week is in the range of 240-260k.



Seece on 20 November 2014
Teeqoz said:
Seece said:
Teeqoz said:

Eh, considering that I was fairly generous with the 4th week sales I think it should even out. But even if we use something like a 320% increase, that "only" puts Cod week numbers at 256k, while VGC has it at 297k (I thought it was 280 first, but then I checked) So we still end up with a 41k overtrack, and that's in the best case scenario for the XBO.

Were you??

"Compared to the previous week, Xbox One sales in the US have more than tripled, which is exciting as more and more friends will be playing together this holiday. As we head into the busy holiday season Xbox One led generation 8 console sales in the US for the past two weeks. "

So even the previous week before pre triple sales week, it outsold PS4, which averaged 74k a week in October.


How much do you think the XBO sold in the 4th week? Yeah, I probably shouldn't have added that best case scenario thing at the end, because it's ofcourse possible that it could've done better, but I think my estimate is fairly likely, I'd say Cod week is in the range of 240-260k.

About 75k~

Given it outsold PS4.

x3.5 = 262k~ (35k overtracked).





 

AnthonyW86 on 20 November 2014

What's funny is that a few months ago a lot of people called you crazy if you said Xbox One would pass Wii-U this year. How things changed, though i have been saying it ever since they anounced the Kinect less version.



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Materia-Blade on 20 November 2014

the site has x1 at 807k for the week ending nov 8. if x1 sold around 40k in UK the following week, this means vgc has it 150k undertracked. but it was 60k overtracked in US october, wich means its also at least 50k overtracked in the first week of november. they even out to around 30k undertrack, wich is very little.



Teeqoz on 20 November 2014
Seece said:
Teeqoz said:


How much do you think the XBO sold in the 4th week? Yeah, I probably shouldn't have added that best case scenario thing at the end, because it's ofcourse possible that it could've done better, but I think my estimate is fairly likely, I'd say Cod week is in the range of 240-260k.

About 75k~

Given it outsold PS4.

x3.5 = 262k~ (35k overtracked).


So we agree then

Again, I'd put it in the range of 240-260k (I'm not badass enough to give an exact number) so you're 2k out of my range. I think that's acceptable.



Seece on 20 November 2014
Teeqoz said:
Seece said:
Teeqoz said:


How much do you think the XBO sold in the 4th week? Yeah, I probably shouldn't have added that best case scenario thing at the end, because it's ofcourse possible that it could've done better, but I think my estimate is fairly likely, I'd say Cod week is in the range of 240-260k.

About 75k~

Given it outsold PS4.

x3.5 = 262k~ (35k overtracked).


So we agree then

Again, I'd put it in the range of 240-260k (I'm not badass enough to give an exact number) so you're 2k out of my range. I think that's acceptable.

Indeed, doesn't throw my premise off that far.

Smash week will be very interesting, XB1 is clearly beasting in UK/US, has Dragon Age, Far Cry and GTAV but then Smash releases in US.



 

*Sound Of Rain on 20 November 2014

Seece was right that the XBone would pass the U this year, I was wrong.

I am forever humbled