Ofcourse we're talking only US.

To start with, the XBO currently has a price advantage, and it MCC just launched, as well as two games with xbox exclusive marketing (AC:U and COD:AW).

When they raise the price back, or alternatively, if they don't raise the price back, when Sony cuts their price to the same as the XBO, and the push from AC:U, COD:AW and MCC tapers off, then I assume it'll return to how it has been for the last 10 months, aka PS4 outsells the XBO.

That's a valid point, but will Xbox One have a bundle with the same price they have now? Nevermind, I forgot this temporary price cut is all the way to Jan. Hmm.... In that case, I can't call it. However, the PS4 will continue to sell. So the gap won't be closed yet. Even for December.

The temp price cut is NOT going away.  That is just a PR spin used to help advertising by retailers during the holidays.

When is the Playstation Experience? Dec 6-7.  So, you are hoping that Sony sits on their hands until then to announce holiday deals?  The holidays sales are 2/3 over by that point.  The only thing they will be announcing is games or features that will keep their product in the front of peoples minds the last few weeks of the year.

november seems quite likely but sales have dropped back to being pretty even at this point. i think december could go either way but if sony does something surprising at their playstation experience it could be a landslide for playstation.

also, just a general lol. if npd wasn't the one and only place xbox had even a chance of winning it wouldn't matter.

While I think it has a fantastic chance of winning November, December isn't remotely as certain in my eyes. Even if it does win, it will be a fairly close race; keep in mind that the PS4's own holiday incentive stuff isn't, for some bizarre reason, even really starting until Black Friday, and by the time December hits, the initial surge of momentum spiking we saw the previous week will have subsided, supplemented instead by the usual holiday rush increase that both consoles will be having.

I'm not really going to even guess which one will win, I'd rather wait until the end of November to see how Sony's own sales tactics are panning out, I just don't think the Xbox One will be in as favorable a position next month as they are this month.

X1 might win November but I'd say PS4 gets November. Plus PS4 is going to continue to come out on top each week WW which is what really matters. If PS4 continues to do very well in America and dominates WW then its already won. Last week X1 sold almost 300k in America alone and was still beaten by the PS4 and in the end that's what counts. Also I feel pretty good about PS4 getting December unless MS has a further price cut/bundles that month to hype up sales again...

Very true! I'm noticing a lot of "sales don't matter....unless its in the US" kind of attitude now.

We know the PS4 Bundles: 399$  GTA V + TLOFU and 399$ LEGO Batman + Little Big Planet 3
vs 329$ Xbox One Bundles. That won't be enough to win November

"That which can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence."

Christopher Hitchins

We know what's announced. Two weeks before the price cut for X1 we didn't knew anything. They could just cut the price of the bundles. I'm not saying that X1 will not beat PS4 for November and December, I'm just saying that we can't affirm we won't have a better bundle or price cut to match it.