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Forums - Sales Discussion - Yeah I Believe The XB1 WILL Beat PS4 For December NPD Also

 

Who will win December NPD

XB1 137 26.92%
 
PS4 372 73.08%
 
Total:509
BHR-3 said:

MS has spoken with the $50 cut, Halo MCC, multiple bundles, and November NPD win the choice is clear for Dec. the choice is XB1


We should wait a bit. A killer bundle in the BF could just give a November win for Sony with the right pricing.



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Landguy said:
Teeqoz said:
Landguy said:

No it won't because..?


So you agree with him that the XBO will outsell the PS4 every single month from now? Like every month?

No, I was just curios why you are so adament that the XB1 can't?  Clearly, we could only be talking US...


Ofcourse we're talking only US.

To start with, the XBO currently has a price advantage, and it MCC just launched, as well as two games with xbox exclusive marketing (AC:U and COD:AW).

When they raise the price back, or alternatively, if they don't raise the price back, when Sony cuts their price to the same as the XBO, and the push from AC:U, COD:AW and MCC tapers off, then I assume it'll return to how it has been for the last 10 months, aka PS4 outsells the XBO.



TheDrill said:
Rafie said:
Landguy said:
I think the PS4 fans will be a little surprised at how much the XB1 will sell better in the US for both Nov and Dec. Might beat it by a million between both those months. The gap in the US might be very small by Jan.

With that said, the PS4 may just go back to beating the XB1 in the US starting in Jan. The difference will be that if it does do that, it will be by a much smaller margin.


Nah it won't be it by a million between 2 months. C'mon now. The PS4 isn't just going to stop selling. It really is too close to call it. Xbox may very well win November. I don't see it doing that in December though.

It will do even better in December when all the parents will buy the cheaper console as gifts for their children.

That's a valid point, but will Xbox One have a bundle with the same price they have now? Nevermind, I forgot this temporary price cut is all the way to Jan. Hmm.... In that case, I can't call it. However, the PS4 will continue to sell. So the gap won't be closed yet. Even for December.



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Landguy said:
With that said, the PS4 may just go back to beating the XB1 in the US starting in Jan. The difference will be that if it does do that, it will be by a much smaller margin.

When the temporary (supposedly) price drop goes away, sales for Xbox should go down even below its usual baseline for a while, (just like it goes down the weeks before a price cut) as tons of people who considered getting an XBO in the near future would have instead jumped in during the price cut period.

OT: It's hard to say who wins Dec before we see what Sony will announce at the Playstation Experience.



Hiku said:
Landguy said:
With that said, the PS4 may just go back to beating the XB1 in the US starting in Jan. The difference will be that if it does do that, it will be by a much smaller margin.

When the temporary (supposedly) price drop goes away, sales for Xbox should go down even below its usual baseline for a while, (just like it goes down the weeks before a price cut) as tons of people who considered getting an XBO in the near future would have instead jumped in during the price cut period.

 

OT: It's hard to say who wins Dec before we see what Sony will announce at the Playstation Experience.

The temp price cut is NOT going away.  That is just a PR spin used to help advertising by retailers during the holidays.

When is the Playstation Experience? Dec 6-7.  So, you are hoping that Sony sits on their hands until then to announce holiday deals?  The holidays sales are 2/3 over by that point.  The only thing they will be announcing is games or features that will keep their product in the front of peoples minds the last few weeks of the year.



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november seems quite likely but sales have dropped back to being pretty even at this point. i think december could go either way but if sony does something surprising at their playstation experience it could be a landslide for playstation.

also, just a general lol. if npd wasn't the one and only place xbox had even a chance of winning it wouldn't matter.



While I think it has a fantastic chance of winning November, December isn't remotely as certain in my eyes. Even if it does win, it will be a fairly close race; keep in mind that the PS4's own holiday incentive stuff isn't, for some bizarre reason, even really starting until Black Friday, and by the time December hits, the initial surge of momentum spiking we saw the previous week will have subsided, supplemented instead by the usual holiday rush increase that both consoles will be having.

I'm not really going to even guess which one will win, I'd rather wait until the end of November to see how Sony's own sales tactics are panning out, I just don't think the Xbox One will be in as favorable a position next month as they are this month.



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X1 might win November but I'd say PS4 gets November. Plus PS4 is going to continue to come out on top each week WW which is what really matters. If PS4 continues to do very well in America and dominates WW then its already won. Last week X1 sold almost 300k in America alone and was still beaten by the PS4 and in the end that's what counts. Also I feel pretty good about PS4 getting December unless MS has a further price cut/bundles that month to hype up sales again...



kitler53 said:
november seems quite likely but sales have dropped back to being pretty even at this point. i think december could go either way but if sony does something surprising at their playstation experience it could be a landslide for playstation.

also, just a generation lol. if npd wasn't the one and only place xbox had even a chance of winning it wouldn't matter.

Very true! I'm noticing a lot of "sales don't matter....unless its in the US" kind of attitude now.



Landguy said:
Hiku said:
Landguy said:
With that said, the PS4 may just go back to beating the XB1 in the US starting in Jan. The difference will be that if it does do that, it will be by a much smaller margin.

When the temporary (supposedly) price drop goes away, sales for Xbox should go down even below its usual baseline for a while, (just like it goes down the weeks before a price cut) as tons of people who considered getting an XBO in the near future would have instead jumped in during the price cut period.

 

OT: It's hard to say who wins Dec before we see what Sony will announce at the Playstation Experience.

The temp price cut is NOT going away.  That is just a PR spin used to help advertising by retailers during the holidays.

When is the Playstation Experience? Dec 6-7.  So, you are hoping that Sony sits on their hands until then to announce holiday deals?  The holidays sales are 2/3 over by that point.  The only thing they will be announcing is games or features that will keep their product in the front of peoples minds the last few weeks of the year.

That's not what I'm hoping. It's what I expect. Because I doubt Sony won't announce any holiday bundles or deals, and that seems to be where they're going to do it since they've been quiet about it up until now. I'm hoping they announce the PS4 to drop to a $1 price tomorrow.
Where did you get those "2/3 of the holiday sales being over at that point" numbers from though? I know that last minute holiday shopping is a thing, but never heard of that. Personally I've done most of my holiday shopping the last two weeks all my life.

Though you shouldn't base your argument on an assumption without explaining it. I mentioned that the price drop is "supposedly" temporary because I certainly acknowledge the possibility of it being permanent. But at this point it's still an assumption, and should be treated as one. So if I assume it will stay, I will make sure to point that out first as no one on this forum is a mind reader or an oracle.
That said, if it's not permanent, Sony will likely do nothing. Price drops generally don't convince people to buy a product they had no intention of ever buying. They convince those who already decided on getting it at some point to buy it now. People have already made up their minds about what they want, as everyone knows that price drops will occur over time for any console. The only major thing with the power to change people's minds at this point is probably games.
If it turns out to be a permanent price drop though, then it would be silly to assume that Sony won't react to it. Before we know their reaction in that case, it's hard to predict how things will go.