ioi said:
On what basis? |
In PS4's case we know it has been systematically undertracked every time Sony give us their numbers (4.2m, 7m and 10m). Why wouldn't it still be, especially when VGC still shows PS4 at like 9.75m when Sony announced 10m
As for the WiiU, 190k on shelves is too low...no? 10 times less than the other consoles?
ioi said:
On what basis? |
Well for starters, surely Microsoft would not have shipped their holiday bundles before September 30th? They all pretty much replace the previous stock (and the vanilla Xbox One sku is/was out of stock most places online (Amazon, Best Buy just got stock, Gamestop is still OOS).
That and it's been pretty rare for us to show so much stock on shelves end of September Q, most Q's 360 was under that (thought I admit sometimes it was around that mark as well (http://www.gamestop.com/xbox-one/consoles/xbox-one-console-only/115018)) I don't get why there would be so much fluctuation though.
If there were 1.7m~ XB1's on shelves end of September how could they ship close to another 2.5m (probably closer to 1.5m) through October/early november?
ioi said:
Why, when weekly sales are around ~50k and WiiU is only selling significant amounts in the major countries which are easy to monitor stock levels in (US, CA, UK, FR, DE, JP)? |
Barely 3-4 weeks of stock on shelves is quite unusual. You say 2m+ is normal for consoles selling 500k-1m during the holidays so why isn't 0.2m for consoles selling 100-400k during the holidays abnormal? It's not like WiiU is doing 10 times worse than the other two.
While we're at it, 3DS stock levels would be nice to get an explanation for as well.
2 weeks until black friday and WiiU only has 190k on shelves? thats gonna be a tough week for them
I am Torgo, I take care of the place while the master is away.
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Ha.. i won my bet, but i wasnt around to gloat because im on a better forum! See ya guys on Viz
Ninsect said:
See bold |
Again. What's with the Wii U numbers? It will not get close to that range of numbers.
Won bet with t3mporary_126 - I correctly predicted that the Wii U's LTD at the end of 2014 would be closer to 9 million than 10 million. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6673287
ioi said:
Historically, you never tend to see a large gap between shipped and sold for Nintendo products - you don't tend to see a Q3 / early Q4 channel stuff in the same way as you do with Sony / Microsoft (MS especially). I'd suggest someone does a historical data study for Wii, PS3, and 360 for 2006 - 2012 at each quarter - look at shipments vs our sell-through estimates and you will see these patterns become clear. I don't have a watertight explanation for it, I just know that the pattern exists and it doesn't suprise me at all to have 2m+ PS4s and XB1s in the supply chain at the moment vs a few hundred thousand WiiUs. |
Well didn't kowenicki have a thread for that?
*summons kowen*
Welfare said:
Again. What's with the Wii U numbers? It will not get close to that range of numbers. |
Exactly
| cutzman25 said: I find it hard to believe that 4 million xbox ONES are sitting on store shelves. So it's deff undertracked |
I don't! We still have a good dozen launch day Xbox ones in the backroom. On top of all the new bundles and whats on the sales floor. Thats just one store I couldn't imagine how bad it is across the country.
|
ioi said: Historically, you never tend to see a large gap between shipped and sold for Nintendo products - you don't tend to see a Q3 / early Q4 channel stuff in the same way as you do with Sony / Microsoft (MS especially). I'd suggest someone does a historical data study for Wii, PS3, and 360 for 2006 - 2012 at each quarter - look at shipments vs our sell-through estimates and you will see these patterns become clear. I don't have a watertight explanation for it, I just know that the pattern exists and it doesn't suprise me at all to have 2m+ PS4s and XB1s in the supply chain at the moment vs a few hundred thousand WiiUs. |
Edit - Nevermind... I looked the wrong data.
Here is the problems
Xbox One - While most of its inventory (to where you have 1.7m on shelves from the last shipment) is selling out. Forza bundles, Xbox One Sku, etc all sold out in Best buy, gamestop, amazon, etc If that is true then the 1.7m gap should be smaller. Now with another shipment which is looking to be the Call of Duty and Assassin's Creed bundle for majority has taken over. That would signify that last quarter would be undertracked, my guess in Europe and RoW. Id wager by around 300k at the very least.
PS4 - The PS4 is the most obvious since they give actual sold through numbers. Certainly is undertracked and i dont see how you can argue against official numbers
WiiU - If we are to believe WiiU is correct then we would have heard about WiiU shortages based on shipment number which we most certainly didnt. While they dont stuff the channel as much as Sony/MSFT, i highly doubt that there is that little on store shelves. Overtracked
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