certainly in the realm of possibility for the PS4 unlike the other two consoles which arent even close to breaking any records or goals but to make a educated quess i would say no should be around 5M off

I reckon PS4 will be at just over 40m shipped by March 2016, so no Wii should easily be the first to 50.

he answered the question and then put a context to it

I think that PS4 sales have been so huge amongst the core gamer demographic according to NPD because there isn't much of a question as to the go to console and its been so long since the last generation that there is much pent up demand. After X1 and PS4 hit 32 million I'm expecting this generation to slow down drastically. The software libraries just dont support a wider demographic than core gamers. The few things that would (xbox fitness etc) dont have retail space to let that audience know such software is available, or are simply out of the price range for those users.

TLDR I think Wii will be the first to 50 million.

Wii by ALOT is my guess.

Thinking in much the same way, 40-43 million shipped max by the end of March 2016. The Wii had a 24.5 million sellthrough in its second CY and was supply constrained for almost two entire years, there's just no way the PS4 can beat that. That said; regardless of a slower pace in all likelihood; the end result should be much the same given a much flatter sales curve for the PS4 in comparison.

Wii will easily win. Wii was even ahead of the almighty ps2 for a while and it even reached 50 million before ps2. Wii was an anomaly.

Wii will win in its first 28 months. During its lifespan though its sales plummeted as smartphones rose.

Ps4 will win lifetime as it favours the traditional userbase whose sales numbers dont decrease in a radical way untill its successor

Really why.

Is the hardware to complex and expensive to build and ship so many, nope.  Is the line up of games lacking in 2015 to sale that much, nope.  Is a price cut out of the question in 2015, nope.  There really is no great reason why it cant.  

Simple market realities; the Wii had an appeal and target audience that purchase hot items in droves and had a near perfect hardware/software synergy in Wii Sports and Wii Fit to draw in these casual customers. Core consumers are more long-term and steady but not as explosive. Do you think the PS4 will manage 24-26 million or so next year? Is it likely?