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Who wins in the race to 50m shipped?

PS4 217 32.63%
 
Wii 380 57.14%
 
See results. 68 10.23%
 
Total:665
RacerXGT on 01 November 2014
Mummelmann said:
RacerXGT said:
Mummelmann said:
Xevross said:

I reckon PS4 will be at just over 40m shipped by March 2016, so no Wii should easily be the first to 50.


Thinking in much the same way, 40-43 million shipped max by the end of March 2016. The Wii had a 24.5 million sellthrough in its second CY and was supply constrained for almost two entire years, there's just no way the PS4 can beat that. That said; regardless of a slower pace in all likelihood; the end result should be much the same given a much flatter sales curve for the PS4 in comparison.

Really why.

Is the hardware to complex and expensive to build and ship so many, nope.  Is the line up of games lacking in 2015 to sale that much, nope.  Is a price cut out of the question in 2015, nope.  There really is no great reason why it cant.  

 

 

 


Simple market realities; the Wii had an appeal and target audience that purchase hot items in droves and had a near perfect hardware/software synergy in Wii Sports and Wii Fit to draw in these casual customers. Core consumers are more long-term and steady but not as explosive. Do you think the PS4 will manage 24-26 million or so next year? Is it likely?

How about market realities like 70ish % marlet share in some places, between the 3 consoles.  Is it not just a matter of how much % world wide console sales are PS4s ? Wiiu sales are dismall and X1 is only putting up a fight in two markets. If PS4 continues taking the lions share of the overall sales in a about 90% of the world markets.  id say around 20million sales are a given.

Of course success depands muvh  on the exclusive line up for all 2015 and it be nice if PD surprised us and managed to release GT7 next year.  



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platformmaster918 on 01 November 2014
Angelv577 said:
Wii will easily win. Wii was even ahead of the almighty ps2 for a while and it even reached 50 million before ps2. Wii was an anomaly.

PS4 is ahead of PS2 at this point though.  PS2 was a beast but also more of a slowburner than Wii which is the patch PS4 will most likely take on its way to at least 100m sales




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XanderXT on 06 January 2015

Probably not...



zorg1000 on 06 January 2015

Wii wins the race to 50 million, PS4 wins the race to 100 million



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Kerotan on 06 January 2015

Wii wins race to 50M but the ps4 wins the race.



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psrock on 06 January 2015

Japan was hot for the Wii as well unlike the PS4. Well, it's amazing the PS4 is even close as the Wii fever was crazy. But, at least it wont crash as fast hopefully.



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deskpro2k3 on 06 January 2015

With price cuts, the PS4 can do it.



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CDiablo on 06 January 2015

Wii, PS4 is a bit front loaded due to its price point and I dont expect this coming years sales to be much greater than last years. If PS3 launched at $400 the numbers we see for PS4 wouldnt seem as impressive.

Though I enjoyed select games on the Wii, it was a part of pop culture.



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lightknight on 06 January 2015

Maybe if the ps4 was $300 (the Wii was $250 which makes a huge difference in the available consumer market). The ps4 is close to the Wii but unless they have a few more million units to add to their 2014 numbers then they're a couple million behind the Wii already and I wouldn't think they'd jump to something like 25 million next year.



colafitte on 06 January 2015
kowenicki said:
colafitte said:
I want to see this thread after holidays..., when we will be seeing PS4 at 20 or 21 mill sold, or after FY results in March 2015 when PS4 will be around 24-25 mill sold. I bet most people will think otherwise and this poll will turn to ps4 favor....


and now.... ?


Hahahaha, you remembered!!  

I admited defeat in the other thread. I didn't expect so low sales in holiday season, so yeah..., I was wrong.  But in my favor, we don't know shipment units yet, the only number that we can officially compare to Wii, but yeah, PS4 probably shipped less than 20m before 2015.

24-25 million PS4 sold now must be around June 2015, and right now, I'm not very confident PS4 will have such a great 2015 as before. PS4 can reach 20 mill sold in 2015, but probably will be more around 16-18 mill. The reason I'm not as confident anymore is because the fact that PS4 need to be a monster in Holiday season each year but they don't seem capable to fight Microsoft in that period in USA.

Every comparison I made about PS4 and Wii in their first 2-3 years now become stupid or at least, doubtful, but I still expect PS4 to outsell Wii lifetime by a wide margin.