NPD numbers will tell the truth either way, so we may as well just wait. I hope it surprises, but I doubt it.
Ancedontally at my Best Buy I'd say it was doing OK. It looked like had sold maybe 3-4 copies on its first day and had another 3-4 left on the shelf and another 5-6 in the back according to the clerk that I asked.
No matter what I think Nintendo should go ahead and greenlight Bayonetta 3 for their next platform (Fusion?). They need to finally invest in an IP for older consumers in the long term, they can't keep abandoning IP aimed at older consumers. Make a long term investment here and try to build an audience.