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Forums - Sales - Prediction: 3DS to get 90% market share by January 2015

Ka-pi96 said:
Jizz_Beard_thePirate said:
zorg1000 said:
no its physically impossible, Vita is currently at 9 million, let's say 10 million by the end of the year. for 3DS to have 90% market share, it would need to be at 90 million by the end of the year.

Wait... there is something off about the math... the 3ds is at 45 million and it has 83% market share so it shouldn't need double the amount to reach 90% right? But I might be wrong cause its too early for me loll but something seems off

Nope, that's right. % goes up very slow when sales are that high. Even if it had already sold 70 million by now that would only be 88.6% market share.

Loll I see! Whoops, my bad



                  

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For the 3DS to reach 85% market share by the end of the year, it would have to sell over 10 million in the next 11 weeks.

The market share is most likely within 3% of where it's going to stay forever.



No, but 90% is possible by the end of the gen.



    

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January 2015? No way. It would have to sell 40 million units by the end of the year to do that!

It'll be quite impressive if the 3DS does get 90% market share at some point. If Vita does, say, 12 million lifetime, then the 3DS would have to sell 108 million lifetime. Certainly possible, but not by the end of this year, or even the next 3 years.



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Sentient_Nebula said:
January 2015? No way. It would have to sell 40 million units by the end of the year to do that!

It'll be quite impressive if the 3DS does get 90% market share at some point. If Vita does, say, 12 million lifetime, then the 3DS would have to sell 108 million lifetime. Certainly possible, but not by the end of this year, or even the next 3 years.

Thankfully, I don't think the Vita will stop at 12 million. I could see it landing somewhere in the 15-18 million range.

Unfortunately that means the 3DS would have to sell over 135 million lifetime to get 90% market share, which ain't happening. Whatever the case, I think the 3DS market share will stay between 80 and 85%.



the_dengle said:

For the 3DS to reach 85% market share by the end of the year, it would have to sell over 10 million in the next 11 weeks.

The market share is most likely within 3% of where it's going to stay forever.


Alright, Dengle, we all know what you must do! Buy 10 million 3DSs!



Jizz_Beard_thePirate said:
zorg1000 said:
no its physically impossible, Vita is currently at 9 million, let's say 10 million by the end of the year. for 3DS to have 90% market share, it would need to be at 90 million by the end of the year.

Wait... there is something off about the math... the 3ds is at 45 million and it has 83% market share so it shouldn't need double the amount to reach 90% right? But I might be wrong cause its too early for me loll but something seems off

Two items, one have sold 1 times, one 4 times. Together 5 times. So item 1 has 20% of the whole sales and item 2 has 80% of the whole sales. Now to get item 2 to 90% it has to sell 9 times, because that is 90%. Yes, it is exactly that way, you have to double your sales to get from 80% to 90% (assuming the other thing doesn't sell at all).



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Dem math skills. The marketshare won't change much at this point.



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