Fantastic analysis. =D
Just to add my own minor conjecture though, i want to address the folks who specifically talk about 'Well, what about all those loyal Xbox gamers?' and especially the ones who point out 'Well, they forgave SONY for the PS3 price/PSN outage/take your pick, really' by mentioning that when it comes to the consumer mindset, comparing the two consoles, one generally focuses on their more recent history, i.e. the last few years of their lifespan. I mean, if we didn't, we'd have to disqualify both Sony for its faults, AND Microsoft for stuff like RROD, (to say nothing for their entire corporate history, but that's another story,) and frankly, Nintendo probably pissed off some of its fanbase with the Wii's relative focus on the casual market. So, really, buying ANY of the consoles requires a bit of forgiveness, or at least willingness not to hold their bullshit against them.
But then, you might say, they should forgive the Xbox One! It's been, like, a year! And hey, maybe that's the case. However, keep in mind when I say 'short,' I did specify a few years, meaning that a consumer thinking about which platform to buy (especially one still feeling irritated from the aforementioned DRM) won't just be thinking about the Xbox One and PS4, they'll likely also think a bit about the final days, months, or years of the PS3 and Xbox 360.
The thing is, Microsoft kind of slackened in terms of actually putting out console-based exclusives during the last few years of the 360, prior to the Xbox One's release, and died altogether when it came to producing their own new IPs. November 2010, you see, is when the Kinect release, and once that new baby way home, a lot of Microsoft's attention swung its way; they wanted you to buy it, and so developers made, literally, DOZENS of Kinect games over the subsequent 3 years which, hey, if you liked 360 Kinect games, fantastic! =D Happy time to own one. But if you didn't own a Kinect, or didn't quite like the games, then you had the occasional game ported from PC- Minecraft, the Witcher 2, etc- a Fable remake, and then the rest was Halo, Gears and Forza. In a time the PS3 was actually finally hitting its stride and letting fly with many a title, the Xbox 360 was winding down, and turning its attention to profiting off the existing install base, while also trying to convert them to Kinect users.
Because of this, the 360- which began as a vibrant and fantastic system with varied exclusives and properties- kind of DID become 'that system Halo is on,' because aside from the Kinect, they pretty much threw all their development resources into the three central, most profitable franchises. Instead of taking the time and energy to build up the hype for their brand during the year or two leading up to the Xbox One's release- by releasing new, dynamic IPs, varied exclusive titles on the 360, and basically matching Sony's moves pound for pound- they were content to turn the base console market into a source of profit, only really releasing new exclusives after the Xbox One was out, and therefore crossgen was an option.
While, of course, there's nothing wrong with focusing on profit- business is a business, after all- it means that when the Xbox One debacle happened, the 360 had very little fresh-on-the-mind material to reinforce brand loyalty, beyond Halo and Gears. Instead of really thinking about Kameo, Crackdown, Alan Wake, Perfect Dark Zero, Too Human, and other fantastic exclusives, they pretty much zero in on Halo, Gears and Forza, because that's pretty much what Microsoft had been DOING for quite some time. =P Meanwhile, Sony ended on a pretty high note with The Last of Us, (a new IP,) and had been steadily releasing exclusive titles for quite some time.
