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Forums - Sales Discussion - November NPD: Halo MCC Vs. LittleBigPlanet 3 Vs Smash WiiU

 

How will they rank?

Halo MCC, LBP3, Smash 24 4.80%
 
Halo MCC, Smash, LPB3 178 35.60%
 
Smash, Halo MCC, LBP3 212 42.40%
 
Smash, LBP3, Halo MCC 45 9.00%
 
LBP3, Halo MCC, Smash 12 2.40%
 
LBP3, Smash, Halo MCC 29 5.80%
 
Total:500
jlmurph2 on 25 October 2014
Bofferbrauer said:
jlmurph2 said:
Bofferbrauer said:

That's because Smash Bros has a much higher attach rate compared to halo, roughly equalising both games  on these effects. Also, Halo MCC has many competing shooters which might lower early sales (especially CoD, which comes out one week earlier) while Smash has basically no concurrent at all.

edit: also, the difference of their install base is there but it ain't gigantic (2.9 to 3.55 millions according to the last update)


False. Halo 4, Reach, and 3 all have higher attach rates than Smash Bros Brawl.

There's another thing you didn't bother to look up.

Yes and no.

Brawl actually didn't very well for it's install base, mostly because it got criticised back then for the subspace emissary (ironically, considering how well liked it is by now) and bad balancing, shying competitive players away. Smash Wii U doesn't seem to have this problem, so I'm pretty sure the attach rate of this console's Smash will be closer to Melee on the Gamecube than Brawl on the Wii. And that game had undeniably a better attach rate than any Halo on the Xbox 360.

Also, casual gamers wo didn't play any more complex games inflated the sales of the Wii, thus further lowering the attach rate of brawl.

And, like I said in the first post, It will be a very close call and I'm not saying that it would not be possible that my prediction is wrong.

I'm just saying, your post says "That's because Smash Bros has a much higher attach rate compared to halo". Which is not a true statement. And even with Melee its not "much higher" like you suggest. Halo 2 is 2.9 while Smash Melee is 3.0. So attach rate shouldn't be a factor here when Wii U has that much less systems in the US than Xbox One (the gap will be much bigger by the time smash comes out).





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fluky-nintendy on 25 October 2014

Halo > SSB > LBP
But all will sell very well.



...Let the Sony Domination continue with the PS4...
Seece on 25 October 2014
vivster said:
How is being the only exclusive a pro for LBP? And how is LBP in competition with any of the games you mentioned?

Because marketing/buyers choice will be split between Sunset/Halo whereas LBP gets the spotlight all to itself.

LBP is competing with every other game on the platform that comes out at the same time ...



 

Bofferbrauer on 25 October 2014
jlmurph2 said:
I'm just saying, your post says "That's because Smash Bros has a much higher attach rate compared to halo". Which is not a true statement. And even with Melee its not "much higher" like you suggest. Halo 2 is 2.9 while Smash Melee is 3.0. So attach rate shouldn't be a factor here when Wii U has that much less systems in the US than Xbox One (the gap will be much bigger by the time smash comes out).

Fair enough.

The gap will be bigger by then, no doubt about, but do you understand under "much bigger"? 150 -250k (depending how big the CoD boost will be and how well both consoles will keep their sales up until then) ain't that much more of a gap imo at the time of Halo MCC release, and a 100 -150k additionally with Halo would still just add up to a grand max of aroud 400k and possibly less than that additionally to the gap of 650k, which means around 1 million more consoles. Don't get me wrong, that is a substantial difference, I just wouldn't call it much bigger.



Seece on 25 October 2014
Bofferbrauer said:
jlmurph2 said:
Bofferbrauer said:
jlmurph2 said:
Bofferbrauer said:
I'd say Smash, though the extra 10 days of Halo MCC might trump it for november, will probably be a very tough call. LBP is a much smaller franchise than the other 2, so think it will come last even though the PS4 has a much larger install base.


Why is the 10 days of Halo a factor but not the Xbox One install base compared to Wii U's?

That's because Smash Bros has a much higher attach rate compared to halo, roughly equalising both games  on these effects. Also, Halo MCC has many competing shooters which might lower early sales (especially CoD, which comes out one week earlier) while Smash has basically no concurrent at all.

edit: also, the difference of their install base is there but it ain't gigantic (2.9 to 3.55 millions according to the last update)


False. Halo 4, Reach, and 3 all have higher attach rates than Smash Bros Brawl.

There's another thing you didn't bother to look up.

Yes and no.

Brawl actually didn't very well for it's install base, mostly because it got criticised back then for the subspace emissary (ironically, considering how well liked it is by now) and bad balancing, shying competitive players away. Smash Wii U doesn't seem to have this problem, so I'm pretty sure the attach rate of this console's Smash will be closer to Melee on the Gamecube than Brawl on the Wii. And that game had undeniably a better attach rate than any Halo on the Xbox 360.

Also, casual gamers wo didn't play any more complex games inflated the sales of the Wii, thus further lowering the attach rate of brawl.

And, like I said in the first post, It will be a very close call and I'm not saying that it would not be possible that my prediction is wrong.

Attach rate hasn't been very kind to WiiU so far tho has it? I mean at least in the first month.

Mario Kart did 400k on a 2.4m userbase, that's about 17%~ attach rate. Super Mario3D World did 220k on a 1.6m userbase (during November/Black friday) that's a 14%~ attach rate.

Titanfall did 1.1m~ on a 2.5m install base. Over 40% attach rate.

Also, Halo 3 (which came out around same time Halo 5 will come out) had a 40% attach rate, and I think Gears had a 30% attach rate too.



 

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Bofferbrauer on 25 October 2014
Seece said:

Attach rate hasn't been very kind to WiiU so far tho has it? I mean at least in the first month.

Mario Kart did 400k on a 2.4m userbase, that's about 17%~ attach rate. Super Mario3D World did 220k on a 1.6m userbase (during November/Black friday) that's a 14%~ attach rate.

Titanfall did 1.1m~ on a 2.5m install base. Over 40% attach rate.

Also, Halo 3 (which came out around same time Halo 5 will come out) had a 40% attach rate, and I think Gears had a 30% attach rate too.

I got, I got it. No need to quote that again. ;)

Also, you're right, Nintendo games get their attach rates mainly by keeping on selling, not so much from first weeks, that's true.

I still hope Smash will stay on top. The Wii U needs some good news.



ThatDanishGamer on 25 October 2014

A Shooter(even a HD collection) in America will always beat a game from any other genre. But LBP will sell best worldwide.



Don't copy random editorials.

Hedra42 on 25 October 2014
Seece said:
 

Attach rate hasn't been very kind to WiiU so far tho has it? I mean at least in the first month.

Mario Kart did 400k on a 2.4m userbase, that's about 17%~ attach rate. Super Mario3D World did 220k on a 1.6m userbase (during November/Black friday) that's a 14%~ attach rate.

Titanfall did 1.1m~ on a 2.5m install base. Over 40% attach rate.

Also, Halo 3 (which came out around same time Halo 5 will come out) had a 40% attach rate, and I think Gears had a 30% attach rate too.

Bolded statement and comparisons are irrelevant for predictions because of inconsistent number of days of sale, how big the user base was before the bundles came out, and in one case, which gen it was. I could argue that in its first month of sale, Nintendoland's attach rate was 79%, but that would be ridiculous.

But for the hell of it -

Mario Kart did 400k on a 2.4m userbase (17%) in just 2 days. First month from release date: 1.9/6/6 - 29%.

Super Mario 3D world did 240k on a userbase of 4.2m, (14%) in 9 days. First month from release date: 552k/2m - 25%.

Titanfall did 1.1m on a 2.5 install base (over 40%) in 18 days. First month from release date: 948k/2.6 - 37%.

Halo 3 did 2.4m on a userbase of 6.4 (37%) in 5 days. First month from release date: 3.2/6.8 - 47%

 

Not as bad as you claim.



AZWification on 25 October 2014

Hmm... I think I will go with the following: Halo MCC> Smash WiiU> LBP3



                
       ---Member of the official Squeezol Fanclub---

Seece on 25 October 2014
Hedra42 said:
Seece said:
 

Attach rate hasn't been very kind to WiiU so far tho has it? I mean at least in the first month.

Mario Kart did 400k on a 2.4m userbase, that's about 17%~ attach rate. Super Mario3D World did 220k on a 1.6m userbase (during November/Black friday) that's a 14%~ attach rate.

Titanfall did 1.1m~ on a 2.5m install base. Over 40% attach rate.

Also, Halo 3 (which came out around same time Halo 5 will come out) had a 40% attach rate, and I think Gears had a 30% attach rate too.

Bolded statement and comparisons are irrelevant for predictions because of inconsistent number of days of sale, how big the user base was before the bundles came out, and in one case, which gen it was. I could argue that in its first month of sale, Nintendoland's attach rate was 79%, but that would be ridiculous.

But for the hell of it -

Mario Kart did 400k on a 2.4m userbase (17%) in just 2 days. First month from release date: 1.9/6/6 - 29%.

Super Mario 3D world did 240k on a userbase of 4.2m, (14%) in 9 days. First month from release date: 552k/2m - 25%.

Titanfall did 1.1m on a 2.5 install base (over 40%) in 18 days. First month from release date: 948k/2.6 - 37%.

Halo 3 did 2.4m on a userbase of 6.4 (37%) in 5 days. First month from release date: 3.2/6.8 - 47%

 

Not as bad as you claim.

This is all so hilarious because, actually, it is your sums that are irrelevent. We're talking NPD November here. Those are the sales they did on the userbase by the end of November NPD. So what they did the following month has no bearing on this thread.

Smash will also get around 9 days, so you apply the attach rates I came up with to see how it'll fare in November ... NPD.