Shadow1980 said:
To put it in more concrete numbers, here NPD data showing how XBO compares to other Xbox systems and the PS4 through the first three quarters of their first calendar year:
PS4: 2,507,000 360: 2,067,000 XBO: 1,675,000 Xbox: 1,439,000
It's also worth pointing out that a disproportionate amount of the XBO's sales this year were in Q1. Combined Jan.-March sales were 711k, about 42.5% of its sales this year. In Q2 it sold only 389k, making it the third-worst first Q2 for any major console released this century; only the PS3 and Wii U sold less in their first Q2. In Q3, the XBO sold 575k units, vs. 915k for the PS4, 671k for the 360, 464k for the Xbox, and 433k for the GC in their first Q3. August was the first time since April that the XBO had did better than the GameCube for any given month for their first year.
At this rate, the XBO will at best only outdo what the original Xbox did in 2002 by a few percentage points, and will fall considerably short of what the 360 did in 2006. Meanwhile, the PS4 is on track to have the third-best first year of any console released this century, and fourth-best first year of any console ever since the NPD started tracking sales.
In Europe the situation is even worse. The XBO is sitting at a little over 670k through the first nine months of the year. Meanwhile, the PS4 sold nearly 2.7 million in the same period, and even as poorly as the 360 sold early on in Europe it still managed to sell over a million units in Q1-Q3 2006. In Germany and France the XBO may end up only selling not a whole lot more units this year than the Wii U did last year. That is... not good.
As for Japan, well, it's Japan. The XBO is already below 1000 units per week and it hasn't even been out two months. It'll be lucky to sell even 200k units next year and likely won't pass a million units lifetime.
At this point the XBO's "stride" won't be a particularly impressive one. The only thing that will help boost sales over the long term is a price cut, as games rarely provide long-term boosts (Halo 5 will certainly be the biggest system-seller for the XBO next year). I do think we'll see a price cut next year, and I do think it will help boost sales a good bit, and I also think next year will likely be the peak for both the PS4 and XBO (most systems peak in their second full year, the 360, PS3, and Genesis being the only notable exceptions). But at this point even a 50% increase in year-over-year sales won't make the XBO look all that impressive in absolute terms. Let's just say for total global sales it sells 5 million this year; a 50% YoY increase would give it 7.5 million next year. 7.5M is vastly worse than any seventh-gen system's peak year, and while I don't have global yearly sales for sixth-gen systems, 7.5M probably isn't considerably better than what the Xbox did in its peak year (it pulled 4.33M in 2004 in the U.S., and the U.S.'s share of lifetime Xbox sales was about 62.5%; assuming its share of 2004 sales is the same that would put global Xbox sales in 2004 at around 7 million units).
The XBO has simply been selling too slowly overall this year for it to possibly turn itself around and become a major sales force. It will be moderately successful in the U.S., UK, and other more Xbox-friendly nations, but it will still be nothing short of an abject failure everywhere else. The vast majority of Xbox sales derive from the U.S. & UK (over 70% of the global total so far), and that is no way to build a strong global brand. The Xbox One is quite simply not doing well in terms of global sales, and it'll be lucky to sell half of what the 360 did lifetime.
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