Shadow1980 said:
And handheld gaming is far from doomed. Everyone seems to consider the DS the bar for handhelds to reach, and now that the 3DS is obviously going to fail to reach 150 million, and by a considerable margin, many people are proclaiming "DOOM!" But the DS shouldn't be considered the bar. It should be considered a fluke, an abberation. It took the original Game Boy line (including the Game Boy Color) 12 years to reach what it did. Twelve years! The DS passed the Game Boy after only five years and sold 150 million in seven years, a goal that the PS2 took 11 years to reach. And let's not forget that the PSP was the first and thus far only non-Nintendo handheld to be successful, thus inflating "seventh-gen" handheld sales ever higher. Did anybody really think that level of success could be replicated even if mobile gaming was a non-issue?
Speaking of mobile, I have my doubts that it is the sole cause of the generation-over-generation drop. While it might be a factor, I think it could be just as much if not more so because of self-inflicted damage. The high initial price of the 3DS, the relative lack of marketing for its system and games (I saw some ads on TV for Smash, the first 3DS ads I've seen on TV in God knows when and the first Nintendo TV ads I've seen since last Christmas), the 3D capability that wasn't exactly universally loved, and the arguably flawed decision making regarding development and release timing of new models (e.g., poor 2DS form factor, XL released too soon). I think that general missteps made with the 3DS may have damaged Nintendo's rep in regards to handhelds or at the very least hurt momentum. However, Nintendo is still a strong enough name to where the 3DS is still selling quite strongly. It can still sell 75-80 million units over its lifespan (which will likely be a shorter lifespan than the DS), which is hardly a disaster.
As for the Vita, when you take into account hidden costs it is either the second or third most expensive handheld in history when adjusted for inflation and has the highest nominal sticker price. That high price, combined with precious few games and near-total lack of marketing (I've never seen a single Vita commercial despite PSP ads being ubiquitous), absolutely destroyed any momentum. This may have created a death spiral as third parties became apprehensive about developing for a system that is too powerful for its own good and has a negligible install base outside of Japan (and even in Japan it's selling at only a fraction of the rate of the PSP), thus resulting in continued poor sales, thus resulting in less major titles, rinse and repeat.
Another reason why I don't think mobile is the sole cause is Japan. Now, isn't Japan supposed to be the most mobile-friendly of the three major markets? If phone & tablet gaming was cannibalizing so much of the handheld market, then why is the dedicated gaming handheld market still thriving in Japan? 2013 sales of the 3DS were still better than all but the two best years of the DS, and combined sales of all handheld platforms that year (3DS, PSP, & PSV) were around 6.5 million units, which compares favorably to every other year in the 21st century except 2006 and 2007 (the two best years of the DS, which represented nearly half of lifetime DS sales in Japan). The 3DS is already on the verge of passing the GBA in Japan and will almost certainly pass the PSP next year. If the 3DS sells 25 million units, that'll make it Nintendo's second-best selling handheld ever in Japan, not to mention it'll have outsold the PS2. If the Vita manages only 8 million on top of that, then combined 3DS & Vita sales will equal lifetime DS sales. The vast majority of the losses this gen in Japan are on Sony's end, with the declining PSP being the primary cause of the slight YoY drops in combined platform sales from 2011 through 2013 and the Vita having a massive drop, which again is likely thanks in large part to its massive launch price. The handheld market in Japan isn't so much shrinking as it is seeing one company's fortunes in said market taking a turn for the worse.
So, this is more of a problem with the West. The 3DS has only been selling at around PSP levels in America and Europe, and the Vita is barely a blip. Now, why would mobile only cannibalize sales in the West but not in Japan? Are the Japanese simply more open to a world where phone/tablet gaming and dedicated gaming handhelds coexist? In other words, are they willing to buy both, whereas Americans and Europeans are less willing, thinking dinky little apps like Candy Crush are a perfectly suitable replacement for "real" gaming experiences like those on Nintendo handhelds? While it's certainly possible that such differences exist between the Japanese and Western markets, I'm not inclined to believe it without hard evidence, say, market research or polling suggesting that most Americans and Europeans who bought handhelds in the past are now satisfied with just gaming on their phone whereas most Japanese who bought handhelds in the past still prefer having that experience instead of or in conjunction with cheap mobile gaming apps. Until such evidence is presented, I'm still sticking with my theory that, as with home systems, games, pricing, and marketing are still the biggest contributors to the relative success of any platform, handheld or console. Looking at history, at least that theory has evidence to back it up instead of relying purely on assertions held to be self-evident.
TL;DR Version: Handheld gaming might not be reaching the absolutely stellar heights of last generation, but I think it's ridiculous to insist that it has to and then to proclaim "doom" when sales of newer systems fail to reach those impossible goals. Sony may withdraw from handheld gaming after this generation, but Nintendo still has a place in that market. The 3DS has sold very well so far and will attain very good lifetime sales, far from what any rational being would consider a harbinger of doom. |
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