A COD That had last Gen as the main platform dev target.... Anyway I don't why you keep saying that smash will do something it hasn't the pushing power of any of those games no matter what... I hate COD but it is one of the biggest system seller there is... And almost no other game can match it no matter what except an other major FPS or realm big franchise which smash isn't in comparison and Wii U has unfortunately lost a lot of appeal...

I'll tell you what I hope everybody is wrong and you a right cause in my perfect world MS and Nintendo compete for first spot and Sony is dead third...
But in the current state of things there is simply no way...

I'm emphasizing how nonsensical it is to suggest that a person wouldn't buy one game because they didn't buy a previous game from a entirely different genre by paroding his post. His response suggests that he understands that I was mocking him.

I would of used KI but that was free and released around the same time as Forza.

yeah no problem in achieving this now.

At the start of the year I predicted the X1 to catch the WiiU by end of the year. It surely was a lot closer than I thought, due to the X1 not quite doing as much as I expected.

That is an entirely irrational belief.

I said Forza rather Halo MCC, because it doesn't make sense just like Mario Kart to Smash doesn't make sense.

If a person with a Wii U does not buy Smash, that is because they didn't value it enough, regardless of whether or not they owned Mario Kart.

If a person doesn't buy a Wii U for Smash, then the combined library wasn't enough for them to get the cost. But that has zero bearing on whether or they like Smash enough to make the plunge.

My belief is simple and it is I believe there is a huge cross over between people that have purchased a Wii U for Mario Kart and the people that must have Smash Brothers.   My point is that I believe that Mario Kart (Also Super Mario 3D World, New Super Mario World U) have already made most of them make the plunge.   I just dont believe there are many people that mush have Smash Brothers left that havent already picked up a Wii U.   You may believe otherwise.  The beauty is we will see it playout over the next couple of weeks. If I am wrong we will see soon enough.

I'm honestly struggling to put into words how incorrect your assertion is. Your belief cannot be proven because it fails to account the subjectivity of buyer motives which are virtually infinite.

Luckily we don't have to wait to know that your belief is wrong. We already know it is now.

Not to mention the bounds you've set up are essentially ephemeral, yet making unfounded implications based on pure speculation. Tell me what do you define as huge, many, most, those words are as meaningless as "nearly".

So instead lets do an excercise:

Reconstructing your "claim" in first order logic. Getting rid of those annoying "beliefs" and ambigous "Manys"

My belief is simple and it is I believe there is a huge cross over between people that have purchased a Wii U for Mario Kart and the people that must have Smash Brothers. 

∃S s.t S⊂M ∧ |S|= A (There exists set S[Purchasers of Smash] such that it is a subset of set M[Purchasers of Mario Kart] and the amount of members of that set is A)

A > ? (A is greater than undefined)

A being the amount of fans in the overlap which you describe as huge but never define as having a maximal bound.

My point is that I believe that Mario Kart (Also Super Mario 3D World, New Super Mario World U) have already made most of them make the plunge. I just dont believe there are many people that mush have Smash Brothers left that havent already picked up a Wii U.

|M-S|= B (The amount of members in the Set M without the Set S is B)

B < ? (B is less than undefined)

B being the remaining fans who would buy a Wii U for smash alone is "the least of them" but never defined.

The beauty is we will see it playout over the next couple of weeks. If I am wrong we will see soon enough.

The only purchases that we're made for Smash on the Wii U where those made at least date. Because nobody buys a system in anticipation for a game.

Look, I do not care if you're using this validation to claim that the system selling potential of Smash 4 is not as great as it seems. The issue is that this method of validation is simply incorrect, it is essentially confusing cause an effect, assuming that p impies q also means q implies p when this is not correct either.

There are more valid and believable pieces of evidence such as the 3DS.

I disagree I have been following the vg market for over 10++ years and we know A that MK has a way bigger fan base than Smash. And B that ninty fans tend to overlap main title taste way more than other console... I guarantee you that more people by ratio with smash have MK than people with halo have forza... There is absolutely zero doubt about that....

Fact is all things kept equal the proportion of smash potential buyers that don't have a Wii U yet even considering prior major ninty title are out is without a doubt smaller than the proportion of Halo fans that didn't yet purchase an XBO because of prior title such as forza... There shouldn't even be a debate about that

And lets be clear even if no game had released yet on either platform smash has no way the pushing power of a halo collection such as MCC this Gen...

Not trying to downplay smash or ninty since I like both and would gladly buy a Wii U if i had more time to play... But this are commonly accepted facts... With enough data to back it up

Data such as?

I'm sure you have a chart showing the percentage of overlap and objectively proving subjective preferences.

Also don't get it twisted, these "commonly accepted facts" are your opiniated assumptions that you claim to be fact. Completely disregarding the concept of change.

The disagreement was not that whether or not there is overlap but how using that overlap to predict sales is unreasonable, and by using vague language in his prediction it cannot be proven or disproven either.

That's why the variables A and B are undefined. There is no specified percentage of the bases, mainly because of the lack of evidence and there is no percentage of consoles that must be moved to rendered it true if it falls below or false if it sells above. There is no goal post.

And another thing, if you can't awnser this question then this discussion is pointless.

What part of the Mario Kart series exclusively advertises or gets people intrested in the Smash Brothers Series?

It's going to be tough be possible. I'm projecting 2.1 million wiiu units to be sold between nov 8 and dec 31st.

If you followed thew data so much, you should know there are still tons of mario kart fans that didn't purchase mk 8 (or even a wii u) yet. also, that both smash and mario kart have fanbases quite larger than wii u's current installed base. even if every single wii u owner was a smash buyer (hint, it's not even close, millions of current owners won't buy smash), there would still be 3m+ fans that didn't have a wii u.

many people simply wait untill the console has a good number of games they want.