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Forums - Sales - So, Some People Thought Destiny Would Sell 30 Million or Even More. Anyone Keen to Revise their Prediction?

fleischr said:
kowenicki said:
30m? who said that? no sane person thought that.


Actually, many really did. Based on a break-even analysis on the $500 million cost to develop and market the title + Activision's target ROI for most projects.

Based on "Anatomy of a Retail Game Costs", Activision would collect a royalty of about $15 (maybe $20 since it's a high profile title) once MS, Sony take their platform royalty, retailers make some money, and the costs of distribution are covered.

So assume a $20 royalty * 30 million copies = $600 million. A gross profit of about 20% which would be considered acceptable.

Granted, there's additional ways they'll make money on the title via DLC. But that's how many came up with a 30 million estimate.

Just breaking even on Destiny would be a bad outcome for Activision financially


This $500 million talk has been debunked already can we stop bringing that number up. I don't get how anyone thought Activision spent 500 million on a game it didn't even seem believable when it was said.



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Destiny sales dropped very hard and I see they will a lot of problems building hype for upcoming DLC and especially for a successor, especially if there will be an embargo again.
I think next time people will wait for reviews and then buy the game instead of letting the hype lure you to a game with many discrepancies.



the guys who said it will do 30m talked about a WoW like game
on every expansion, u get the original version, too (for free)


but im sceptical this game will work that way.
for the frist expansion (end of 2015 or early 2016) maybe.

but after that, they need a destiny 2 to get people into buying this game anymore, imho.



so yeah, no 30m for destiny. not even 20m for destiny.
it will do 15m with its first expansion and pc release.


it just dont have any userbase on last gen. that make it impossible to reach cod numbers



method114 said:
fleischr said:
kowenicki said:
30m? who said that? no sane person thought that.


Actually, many really did. Based on a break-even analysis on the $500 million cost to develop and market the title + Activision's target ROI for most projects.

Based on "Anatomy of a Retail Game Costs", Activision would collect a royalty of about $15 (maybe $20 since it's a high profile title) once MS, Sony take their platform royalty, retailers make some money, and the costs of distribution are covered.

So assume a $20 royalty * 30 million copies = $600 million. A gross profit of about 20% which would be considered acceptable.

Granted, there's additional ways they'll make money on the title via DLC. But that's how many came up with a 30 million estimate.

Just breaking even on Destiny would be a bad outcome for Activision financially


This $500 million talk has been debunked already can we stop bringing that number up. I don't get how anyone thought Activision spent 500 million on a game it didn't even seem believable when it was said.


Activision CEO was quoted by multiple press outlets saying Activision was making a "500 million dollar bet on destiny"

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/06/us-activision-destiny-idUSBREA4501F20140506

500 million was first brought up Kotick in this bungie 'dev diary'

http://www.vg247.com/2014/05/05/first-destiny-developer-diary-released-talks-armour-loot-weapon-upgrades/



I predict NX launches in 2017 - not 2016

There were a lot of outrageous predictions and I remember some people said 20-30m. I predicted 15m but I expect it to sell around 11m.



    

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fleischr said:

Activision CEO was quoted by multiple press outlets saying Activision was making a "500 million dollar bet on destiny"

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/06/us-activision-destiny-idUSBREA4501F20140506

500 million was first brought up Kotick in this bungie 'dev diary'

http://www.vg247.com/2014/05/05/first-destiny-developer-diary-released-talks-armour-loot-weapon-upgrades/

That $500 is not the initial amount spent on Destiny. It's the alloted budget for the promised 10 years of support + development and advertising costs. They're essentially employing Budgie for 10 years! Destiny already made money on day 1, and they're going to make a killing with DLC and expansions.

Also, in order to claim people predicted it would sell 30 million or more, you need a link.



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From what i've read and heard from various pod-cast's: They had grand visions, sold those during developement. Had to cut back, that made lore / back-story quite hollow and not that refined (different classes / races had different starting locations at one point).
And now the gaming-community at large has branded the product with the 'it isn't what they said it was' stamp.
So it isn't the 'omg this game is phenomenal!' messaging that you need to keep traction to get a 20mil+ selling game. Word of mouth is a big thing.

that's my take on it at least



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Heck, I made a post where I claimed that it might be the best selling game of all time (stupid me got caught in beta hype).

I'd say 7-10 million is still possible though.



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30 million? Who said that? Back up your claims at least.



i think i expected 20 millions and i still think it's possible



PS4 - over 100 millions let's say 120m
Xbox One - 70m
Wii U - 25m

Vita - 15m if it will not get Final Fantasy Kingdoms Heart and Monster Hunter 20m otherwise
3DS - 80m