So, Some People Thought Destiny Would Sell 30 Million or Even More. Anyone Keen to Revise their Prediction?

[fleischr]

method114 said:

fleischr said:

kowenicki said:
30m? who said that? no sane person thought that.

Actually, many really did. Based on a break-even analysis on the $500 million cost to develop and market the title + Activision's target ROI for most projects.

Based on "Anatomy of a Retail Game Costs", Activision would collect a royalty of about $15 (maybe $20 since it's a high profile title) once MS, Sony take their platform royalty, retailers make some money, and the costs of distribution are covered.

So assume a $20 royalty * 30 million copies = $600 million. A gross profit of about 20% which would be considered acceptable.

Granted, there's additional ways they'll make money on the title via DLC. But that's how many came up with a 30 million estimate.

Just breaking even on Destiny would be a bad outcome for Activision financially

This $500 million talk has been debunked already can we stop bringing that number up. I don't get how anyone thought Activision spent 500 million on a game it didn't even seem believable when it was said.

Activision CEO was quoted by multiple press outlets saying Activision was making a "500 million dollar bet on destiny"

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/06/us-activision-destiny-idUSBREA4501F20140506

500 million was first brought up Kotick in this bungie 'dev diary'

http://www.vg247.com/2014/05/05/first-destiny-developer-diary-released-talks-armour-loot-weapon-upgrades/