It's not our fault for expecting the X1 to have better baseline than the WII U ...

yep and before vita sales ~1m

Probably from the magical realm where those 3M+ WiiU buyers will come from.

Look at the timeline, the Xbones sales are well ahead of what the Wii U's was in the same time period. The Xbone is more popular and by the time Halo 5 comes out the xbone would've breezed past the Wii U. Lack of third party cuts off like 60% of your potential market potential. Third parties prop up the exclusives since the sea of people who bought your console have more options. Halo Master Chief collection with third party titles like Dragon Age, Far Cry and others combined will help the Xbone past the Wii U until the big exclusives of next year. Nintendo failed to get consumer interest in them by the end of their second year on the market when their competition was at its weakest. When the exclusives build up and the cross gen games dry up Nintendo is more than screwed there.

just to be clear: I think in the end X1 probably will end with almost double of Wii U, but Wii U will hit 10mil mark first. That's it

and the 4,,5M+ as well. Don't forget

If PSTV sales were included, which I doubt, it would probably be a lot closer to 10mil possibly even passing. Especially since it doesn't have to deal with new 3DS till 2015, so it has a good holiday of being marketted as a microconsole.

If Sony decides to ship some Vita's to the US then it should hit 10 million first. Also odds are that VGC counts Playstation TV as a Vita for its tracking so that should help.

You mean the holidays which are traditionally very high sales times for Nintendo products? Vita has no precedence of doing anything but flop.

The better question here is how will the WII U do that without any big exclusive software ?