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Forums - Sales - VGChartz Tracking vs. Reality (PS4)

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What do you think about VGChartz tracking of the PS4?

3M+ overtracked 44 6.89%
 
2M+ overtracked 15 2.35%
 
1M+ overtracked 38 5.95%
 
Spot on! 53 8.29%
 
1M+ undertracked 300 46.95%
 
2M+ undertracked 37 5.79%
 
3M+ undertracked 39 6.10%
 
Who cares? 47 7.36%
 
I do care, but won't vote. 44 6.89%
 
TL;DR 21 3.29%
 
Total:638
ioi said:
whiteknight101 said:
ioi said:

If a company releases a quarterly financial report then the data in there (such as number of units shipped) must meet certain legal guidelines or as you rightly say they could get into trouble.

This is different to a press-facing statment where a company may announce an estimated sell-through figure. Firstly, the figure will be an estimate and will have an in-built margin of error depending on how it is arrived at. Secondly, a company will want to announce an impressive figure at a big press event so may round up to the nearest round unit as it looks better in headlines. They will then cover themselves with an asterisk at the botton of the press release stating that the number is an internal estimate.

Short version - there is a difference between an official financial statement aimed at shareholders and a press statement aimed at news websites.

Ok, but you're saying here that an official statement by either MS Sony or Nintendo about sell-through can be expected to be the best figure they have, offered in good faith. If that holds true, and only if that holds true, they're not breaking any laws. If they offer inexact numbers where they have any reason whatsoever to believe they performed worse than what they claimed, then that is in fact a punishable offence. Any claims of sold number of units is easily accessible to shareholders, and liable to affect the stock price, and thus any willful lie a punishable offence.

Agreed?

This is the case for both a quarterly financial report AND for when i.e. Sony opts to make an official statement that "10 million units of PS4 were sold through to consumers"?

Agreed?

So, then, acknowledging this, is there any reason whatsoever to consider e.g. mediacreate numbers to be more reliable indata for the Vgchartz algorithm than official MS/Sony/Nintendo sales numbers? Do you feel that mediacreate have access to more exact information about sell through in Japan than Sony does?

As I said, I would split it into two factors - they make a best estimate based on data they have and will then round that estimate to a whole number for the purposes of a press statement and simplicity. If I had actually sold 1.8m units of something and I released a statement saying I had sold 2m (and covered myself by saying that this was an estimate) then I wouldn't be lying as 1.8m does round up to 2m depending on what you are rounding to - it could be the nearest 1m as an extreme example. I know when a company says they have sold 5m that it will come with a margin of error on +-250k or so - it doesn't mean that they have definitely 100% sold exactly 5m units as of that data and not a unit more or a unit less. It is just an estimate as with everything else.

There are very few pieces of data out there that are truly 100% accurate, despite how people try to portray or interpret them.

Well ok, but rounding up from "1.8 million" to "2 million" isn't really the same thing as rounding an estimate to a "whole number". Rounding from 1.8 million to 2.0 million is in fact the same thing as rounding from 1800000 to 2000000.

Saying that rounding up is acceptable and legally permitted behavior for a public incorporated company when it concerns whole millions of units seems kind of arbitrary. In other words, why is 1.8 -> 2 million a legally permissible distortion while 8 -> 10 million or 90 -> 100 million is not, in your opinion?

I have no professional insight whatsoever how this works inside the organizations of MS, Nintendo and Sony, but somehow I would assume that they get some numbers on sell-through from retailers etc, and at a certain date their aggregated numbers on sell-through reach a milestone such as e.g. "10 million". Those internal sell-through numbers are probably subject to a certain amount of uncertainty (just like say Mediacreate and NPD numbers).

Nevertheless, you seem to be suggesting that it would be permissible for e.g. Sony to have their internal numbers on sell-through say 9.5 million, and make an official statement that they reached the milestone "10 million units sold through".

I don't understand how that would not constitute lying to shareholders about the performance of the company with impact on stock price?



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It wasn't 10 million it was 'OVER' 10 million. That's a strange way of announcing an estimate that could have been 'rounded up' don't you think? Anyway, it is now clear that Sony's official numbers were doubted on this site and that tells me everything I need to know.



 

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I don't understand what all the complaining is about. Sony stated a sales figure, VGC recognises it but also states that with it's tracking data it cannot/doesn't know where to allocate the extra units sold. It's simple. Everyone knows VGC isn't perfect but as long as their numbers are transparent that's the real important part.

Although, I guess there should be an option on the front page under total sales that links to the companies latest official total sales figures and a date



Obviously have the other consoles with this too.



What is funny is that before the 10m announcement a lot of people here on forum were predicting that already.

VG keeps undertracking the PS4 and that just not going to change.. since the only company VGchartz don't trust for official numbers is Sony..



Wazowski said:

What is funny is that before the 10m announcement a lot of people here on forum were predicting that already.

VG keeps undertracking the PS4 and that just not going to change.. since the only company VGchartz don't trust for official numbers is Sony..

Please read through the rest of the thread before making sweeping comments such as this one. This will likely be the only warning.



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

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Just imagine if they hadn't got any data from npd, Sony and other trackers



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Well, this thread didn't end too well... :/



                
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I do think the PS4 is still under tracked by quite a lot, especially since Sony's wording during GC suggested they'd rounded down slightly (rather than up), but i don't see anything wrong with how VGC are doing things. I can respect ioi wanting the weekly data to be as accurate as possible, and for the total figures to only be updated once we know when and where VGC is over/under tracking. VGC is for more than just keeping track of the totals.

The front page could probably do with a context link though. Just something small under the totals graph leading to a page explaining how VGC do things and why. Would probably help prevent a lot of drama (or at the very least make it easier to wrap it up).



ioi said:
BraLoD said:

Nope, nor if it was 9.7M compared to 10M, as I didn't do with XBO and Wii U because the numbers seems to be way better tracked, as I've already said it in the OP, please don't make me repeat myself.
I want to compare the most difficult to track here, as again, I've already said in the OP.

OK, would this thread exist if we were showing 10.7m when Sony announced 10m sold?

They said over 10m, though. And it's not like this occasion was the only one where you were massively off with PS4. 



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