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Forums - Sales Discussion - VGChartz Tracking vs. Reality (PS4)

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What do you think about VGChartz tracking of the PS4?

3M+ overtracked 44 6.89%
 
2M+ overtracked 15 2.35%
 
1M+ overtracked 38 5.95%
 
Spot on! 53 8.29%
 
1M+ undertracked 300 46.95%
 
2M+ undertracked 37 5.79%
 
3M+ undertracked 39 6.10%
 
Who cares? 47 7.36%
 
I do care, but won't vote. 44 6.89%
 
TL;DR 21 3.29%
 
Total:638

As always with threads like this, part of the problem is people seeing VGChartz numbers as fact, when in reality the numbers presented on the site are nothing more than estimations.

People.

You are getting a fuckton of numbers on a worldwide basis... For free. The numbers will never have a 100% degree of accuracy and there will always be discrepancies with official data from Sony, Microsoft, Nintendo and whatever 3rd party publishers/ developers manage to release. The numbers will be different to NPD, ChartTrack and MediaCreate. The numbers should be taken for what they are, one companies estimates of the market.

Give this a read. It clears up a lot.

http://www.vgchartz.com/article/82746/editorial-why-it-is-so-easy-to-blame-vgchartz/

What VGChartz offers is timely data that isn't meant to be 100% accurate but be in the right range. We don't compete with the likes of NPD, GFK or ChartTrack; we offer a service that is totally different. One that is not based on comprehensive and direct retail tracking, but rather uses modern and alternative methods to quickly arrive at estimates, combined with a database of historical sales - constantly adjusted and tweaked to be as accurate as possible.

The key to success with the data on VGChartz (or in fact ANY piece of data) is understanding its nature and limitations. Too many people fail to understand that the vast majority of figures reported in the press are estimates of one kind or another. 

However, even with the greatest of diligence, our data is still just an estimate so whenever quoting a figure from VGChartz it should be listed as an estimate and readers should be made aware that there is a margin of error associated. With this in mind, VGChartz data is fine for most applications - from a year-on-year genre analysis to first-day estimates for a major title to a ballpark estimate of total sales to date for a given game. It just requires the user to have a little common sense and realise that an estimate is not exact but better than having no information and intended to point you in the right direction. If we list the sales of a game at 600,000 then you know it hasn't sold 1 million and you know it hasn't sold few hundred thousand. It might not have sold exactly 600,000 but it should be around that range. It gives you more information than you had before but you must remember that it isn't an exact figure.

Maybe if websites, readers, retailers and major publishers got on board with VGChartz, dismissed the various political reasons they have not to support the site (which could form an editorial of its own) and understood the nature of the data and the insight it gives into the videogame industry to the extent that developers, investors and VGChartz readers seem to appreciate, then maybe the data could improve even further and that way everybody could benefit.



                            

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So, what do you guys think? And who called it right to the 1M+ undertracking?

They just shaved 400k off of Playstation this week. It said 11.4 earlier this week, then boom 11.



Interesting to see that less than 8% of this forum members think the numbers are "Spot on".

Considering how much ROW seems to make a difference, wouldn't VGC be better with a ROW column?



They will know Helgan belongs to Helghasts

BraLoD said:

And they do have a ROW column, but not in the front page sadly.

Yup, that's what I mean.



They will know Helgan belongs to Helghasts

Gameuberking said:
vivster said:
Gameuberking said:
vivster said:
wary-wallaroo said:
Xeon said:
I think vgchartz has more difficulty accurately tracking PlayStation consoles because PlayStation is available in more markets. This includes smaller ones where it is more difficult to track as accurately.


Sure, but that doesn't explain why, when actual, real numbers are released, they're so hesistant to update and why to this day they are still rather heavily undertracking the PS4 (and/or overtracking the X1)

That was explained in length by ioi.

The short version is that you can't just slap more units in countries where you can't verify or at least comprehend where the units are coming from. So he chooses slightly wrong but verifyable numbers over accurate but completely made up numbers.

Of course there are countries where undertracking is verifyable and still not adjusted. I assume that's because of different reasons.

A smoke and mirrors explanation, as they had no issue leaving undertracked Euro numbers and overtracked US becasue they "canceled" each other out.

Sure they can, they know a few Key markets through official means so its a simply adding the missing numbers to the rest.  

If that explanation is not good enough, what is your take?

Is ioi too stupid or too lazy? Or is he just a troll that is paid by Microsoft?


Its not.  They lack info for their current guesstamates which makes them currently as legit as some posters on here.  They havent factored in economic growth in markets and gaming growth world wide and they lack the ability to do so.  Extrapolating ww sales from a few markets they know is futile.  The formula they have that onced worked is now near useless.  They lack ability/sources to even make a decent guess in most ww markets.   

Dont know or care, but we all got a bies little or big its there.  


Its not about bias, its about money, why on earth would ioi stop posting numbers even if his formula is wrong of it keeps the site running and making money? They can just adjust to official numbers when they are out. Fanboyism means very little when money is involved. Not that i am claiming he is a fanboy, but just saying even if he was, i doubt he would let it get in the way of making money.

 

And before i am warned for quote trees, im on my phone, i wont be arsed to trim it when this site is so shitty when it comes to mobile



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ioi said:

 

??


??

A question, if and when sony announces new numbers and your numbers show to be over 1 million underestimated.  for sake of discussion lets say 1.6m a nice big number.

What will you do ? will you once agian try to play it of as if sonys not to be trusted.



I actually loled at the thread's tagged game!



If what ioi is asking were true, some xbox fans would be making threads claiming the PS4 is over tracked here.



ioi said:
BraLoD said:

Nope, nor if it was 9.7M compared to 10M, as I didn't do with XBO and Wii U because the numbers seems to be way better tracked, as I've already said it in the OP, please don't make me repeat myself.
I want to compare the most difficult to track here, as again, I've already said in the OP.

OK, would this thread exist if we were showing 10.7m when Sony announced 10m sold?


What the heck does this got to do with anything ? Youre clearly not tracking it correctly wich is OK vgchartz works with estimates after all and those have variations and degrees of thrust around the actual number, but since Sony anounced the 10 million number it stops beeing an estimative and keep estimating numbers lower than 10 million when you know the actual number is 10 million is just plain wrong, as wrong as it would be to estimate 10.7 millions.



You have to love VGC logic, where Wii U is "obviously overtracked", but Xbone, and to some even PS4. are "obviously undertracked".

Right.