The incentive is not that small, with the upgrade you're looking at getting the game AND season pass at the same price that it costs you to just get the base game at retail. Even people that prefer physical make exceptions in some cases and this is a possible one

Judging by VG chartz US pre order numbers this game already should have somewhere around 250k preorders on launch, so you need to ask yourself what would the definition of a flop for this game be. If a game doesn't sell 5 million it isn't directly a flop. If this game will sell 2 million units LT it could already be concidered a (small) succes. After all the first horizon did not sell more. If the game sells under 1.5 million it could be called a flop, but it seems unlikely.

Keep in mind evolution studio's is not a turn 10 or a polyphony digital so the budget for driveclub isn't $100 million more like $20-30 million. 

Too high. It will probably be around 25%. I don't expect the game to sell well but that white PS4 bundle should help it.

If you consider all the incentives, your prediction seems too low.

Maybe I'm missing something, but how will we know if this prediction is correct or not? No one releases digital sales numbers anyway.

90% is way too high.

Half of that is also probably too high.

I feel that anything below 2 million units sold would be a commercial failure for this game, it had a long, bumpy dev time, looks like a game with pretty high production values. It definitely wasn't cheap to make.

I hope it sells that, cause if it will flop, I think Sony won't give them another chance after Apocalypse and this and will simply shut them down. If they can't cooperate with Polyphony, not to cannibalise each others racing game series like it was originally planned to in 2013, two racing studios would be overkill anyway, this genre seen better days. 

90% is waaaaaaaay too high. 50% would be more reasonable.

For an Arcade racing game not called Mario Kart 2 million is way too high. Anything above 1 million would be a success.

You´ve already played it but the genre seems reviving with three major racereleases this year. But since the game is bundled and there is a very large demo version of the game I can see it managing that 2 million units this gen is still young and this is the real first racer for the PS4 which is good for sales. The prime question would be will this game sell more than 1 million units before 2015 if it does the studio will live a few more years.  Perhaps they could even make a wipeout title for the (f-zero) fans.