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Forums - Sales Discussion - 10 Million Wii U min LTD before 2015 if Wii U continues to be up 69% YOY from its 2013 sales!

 

Hoorary for 10,000,000!

Hooray! 58 64.44%
 
No Hoorays. You're math is wrong! 17 18.89%
 
See results 10 11.11%
 
Kappa 5 5.56%
 
Total:90
Welfare on 13 September 2014
t3mporary_126 said:
Welfare said:
VGC is wrong with the Wii U numbers. Over by at least 110k in the US as of August 30 (so about 7,020,000 WW), then you have to factor in the clear possibility that Europe/ROTW is over tracked. The least amount it could be over tracked is 100k (a very optimistic number), so about 6,920,000 as of August 30. Then you have to factor in that the YOY increase would start to decrease, as few titles are spaced out and released, and it's already starting to drop in sales.

9,000,000 is going to be the max LTD in 2014.


Let's make a bet! Winner gets 1 week control over sig simply saying the bet conditions and whoever was right and wrong.

I predict Wii U will sell closer to 10,000,000 than 9,000,000 WW LTD at the end of this year.

Sure.



Won bet with t3mporary_126 - I correctly predicted that the Wii U's LTD at the end of 2014 would be closer to 9 million than 10 million. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6673287

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WhiteEaglePL on 13 September 2014
reggin_bolas said:
Doesn't matter because it looks like 2014 will be Wii U's peak year. Expect it to sell less in 2015 which will land it around 16-17 mil by the end of 2016 when the next system is launched.


I actually very very strongly believe 2015 will be the peak.

 

Unless delays, the momentum will go throughout the year. That's just 1 simple factor.



t3mporary_126 on 13 September 2014
Welfare said:
t3mporary_126 said:
Welfare said:
VGC is wrong with the Wii U numbers. Over by at least 110k in the US as of August 30 (so about 7,020,000 WW), then you have to factor in the clear possibility that Europe/ROTW is over tracked. The least amount it could be over tracked is 100k (a very optimistic number), so about 6,920,000 as of August 30. Then you have to factor in that the YOY increase would start to decrease, as few titles are spaced out and released, and it's already starting to drop in sales.

9,000,000 is going to be the max LTD in 2014.


Let's make a bet! Winner gets 1 week control over sig simply saying the bet conditions and whoever was right and wrong.

I predict Wii U will sell closer to 10,000,000 than 9,000,000 WW LTD at the end of this year.

Sure.

Great. Before we start, though, does anyone know where we get NPD numbers for this entire year? NPD will cover North America, Canada and Mexico in this prediction unless you're fine using VGchartz number.



Soundwave on 13 September 2014
WhiteEaglePL said:
reggin_bolas said:
Doesn't matter because it looks like 2014 will be Wii U's peak year. Expect it to sell less in 2015 which will land it around 16-17 mil by the end of 2016 when the next system is launched.


I actually very very strongly believe 2015 will be the peak.

 

Unless delays, the momentum will go throughout the year. That's just 1 simple factor.


The Wii U hasn't proven itself of holding any momentum. 

It's had basically two "good" periods of sales its entire life cycle -- right at launch and right at MK8's launch and both times, sales have dropped back to a mediocre baseline within a month or two. 

If MK8 can't even net you consecutive 100k+ (still mediocre, but at least it's above 100k) months in the US or a real huge hardware bump in Japan then I think the 2015 lineup is going to be largely ineffective. Unless Splatoon breaks out and becomes like some new type of Minecraft/Pokemon type blockbuster IP. 



WhiteEaglePL on 13 September 2014
Soundwave said:
WhiteEaglePL said:
reggin_bolas said:
Doesn't matter because it looks like 2014 will be Wii U's peak year. Expect it to sell less in 2015 which will land it around 16-17 mil by the end of 2016 when the next system is launched.


I actually very very strongly believe 2015 will be the peak.

 

Unless delays, the momentum will go throughout the year. That's just 1 simple factor.


The Wii U hasn't proven itself of holding any momentum. 

It's had basically two "good" periods of sales its entire life cycle -- right at launch and right at MK8's launch and both times, sales have dropped back to a mediocre baseline within a month or two. 

If MK8 can't even net you consecutive 100k+ (still mediocre, but at least it's above 100k) months in the US or a real huge hardware bump in Japan then I think the 2015 lineup is going to be largely ineffective. Unless Splatoon breaks out and becomes like some new type of Minecraft/Pokemon type blockbuster IP. 


Smash Bros + Mk8 will continue to sell in the holidays and most of 2015.


There are more games than months next year, so 1+ retail games for wii u a month and that's whithout yet to be announced games.

Nintendo needs to advertise all of those main ones, apart from from the two project robo ect.



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Welfare on 13 September 2014
t3mporary_126 said:
Welfare said:

Sure.

Great. Before we start, though, does anyone know where we get NPD numbers for this entire year? NPD will cover North America, Canada and Mexico in this prediction unless you're fine using VGchartz number.

The NPD numbers we get are leaked from NeoGAF, and that only covers US numbers. Canada is like 8-10% of US, but I don't know how big of a market Mexico is. I currently have NPD numbers for all 3 8th gen systems updated to the latest month (August). If you want the Wii U numbers, I can PM you the numbers.



Won bet with t3mporary_126 - I correctly predicted that the Wii U's LTD at the end of 2014 would be closer to 9 million than 10 million. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6673287

t3mporary_126 on 13 September 2014
Welfare said:
t3mporary_126 said:
Welfare said:

Sure.

Great. Before we start, though, does anyone know where we get NPD numbers for this entire year? NPD will cover North America, Canada and Mexico in this prediction unless you're fine using VGchartz number.

The NPD numbers we get are leaked from NeoGAF, and that only covers US numbers. Canada is like 8-10% of US, but I don't know how big of a market Mexico is. I currently have NPD numbers for all 3 8th gen systems updated to the latest month (August). If you want the Wii U numbers, I can PM you the numbers.


Yeah if you can PM the numbers that would be great! EDIT: If you could include the source for each month, that would also help a lot. Thanks in advance!



Mummelmann on 13 September 2014

After year end, I think it is more likely with a 50-55% average yoy over 2013 when all is said and done (including post-holiday adjustments). Which is still terrific for what it is.



larrysdirtydrawss on 13 September 2014

that shouldnt be that hard,since there was a time when the wiiu was moving consoles barely faster than the vita, its like they were treading along in 50ft of mud going uphill



finalray on 15 September 2014
Soundwave said:

This is the GameCube's holiday 2003 (this was also its peak holiday):

November - 754k
December - 1.16 million

Assuming the 69% increase holds for Wii U

November - 334k (198k Nov 13)
December - 774k (460k Dec 13)

I would probably say this year though November might be a bit higher than that and December a little lower than 774k but the overall number (roughly 1 million in Wii U sales from Nov/Dec) is probably right.

hyper fail.