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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - WiiU Overtracked on VGC? ioi (Confirmed Overtracked)

I dont mind you all arguing over all this ^ However when quoting each other can you all snip out the long paragraphs in the previous quote? Its almost as bad as quote trees with that long of texts




       

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eva01beserk said:

Was it with out any new information? Did sony not anounced they sold 10m? like you said, they have the data for the main regions, so whats missing must come from the unspecifyed, so he added it to it, well almost all of it. But do we have anything oficial that says nintendo right know does not have 7.1m, under or over for you to know how much it should be removd from those unspecifyed areas? No. Like I keep saying, it might not look realistic but it could end up being real since we dont know any better and it was done with care to achive what we have now, changing on a speculation is far more unrealistic cuz you have no idea if its right or by how much.

To your question, yes. When you have solid proof, like when the next nintendo finacial release then do something about it, but now you cant do anything on a whim, even if it sounds better and logical to you.

yes.
PS4 selling 10m was announced on August 12th
People starting to complain was after that, not before
ioi's most recent post on VGC: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6602922
A few days later, PS4 was adjusted up to ~9.9m.

 

Nintendo doesn't announce sold to customer numbers. They report quarterly shipments. The gave us the most recent shipments 1 month ago. The next quarterly report will be released in 2 months. There's no need to wait.



Barozi said:
eva01beserk said:

Was it with out any new information? Did sony not anounced they sold 10m? like you said, they have the data for the main regions, so whats missing must come from the unspecifyed, so he added it to it, well almost all of it. But do we have anything oficial that says nintendo right know does not have 7.1m, under or over for you to know how much it should be removd from those unspecifyed areas? No. Like I keep saying, it might not look realistic but it could end up being real since we dont know any better and it was done with care to achive what we have now, changing on a speculation is far more unrealistic cuz you have no idea if its right or by how much.

To your question, yes. When you have solid proof, like when the next nintendo finacial release then do something about it, but now you cant do anything on a whim, even if it sounds better and logical to you.

yes.
PS4 selling 10m was announced on August 12th
People starting to complain was after that, not before
ioi's most recent post on VGC: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6602922
A few days later, PS4 was adjusted up to ~9.9m.

 

Nintendo doesn't announce sold to customer numbers. They report quarterly shipments. The gave us the most recent shipments 1 month ago. The next quarterly report will be released in 2 months. There's no need to wait.

Thats the thing, nobody knew the ps4 was off untill new info was given, and it even showed how much was off. Do you have info that prooves wii u overtracke aside from speculations, to even sugest by how much? No. there is a need to wait cuz you dont know by how much to reduce anywhere. If ioi sent you that same page but for wii u, where would you atribute the overtracked and by how much? And what information do you have to suport that claim? If nobody has anything, then we wait for nintendos oficial report and untill then just have an idea and be prepared for the real adjustment. Or you rather make the changes now at random to please some while others complain, then after the oficial report have to change it back while others still complain? 



It takes genuine talent to see greatness in yourself despite your absence of genuine talent.

eva01beserk said:

Thats the thing, nobody knew the ps4 was off untill new info was given, and it even showed how much was off. Do you have info that prooves wii u overtracke aside from speculations, to even sugest by how much? No. there is a need to wait cuz you dont know by how much to reduce anywhere. If ioi sent you that same page but for wii u, where would you atribute the overtracked and by how much? And what information do you have to suport that claim? If nobody has anything, then we wait for nintendos oficial report and untill then just have an idea and be prepared for the real adjustment. Or you rather make the changes now at random to please some while others complain, then after the oficial report have to change it back while others still complain? 

Sony combines PS3+PS4 shipments in their quarterly reports. That makes it much much harder to estimate.
If Sony announced 12m shipped (for PS4 only) instead of 10 million sold back then. It would've been obvious that we're undertracking PS4, since 2.6m on shelves is far too high to be correct.

As others have already mentioned, there are several ways to estimate by how much and where it's overtracked in this very thread. No need to repeat myself or others.

Again, Nintendo doesn't announce sold through numbers. They've given shipment information last month. There's no need to wait, it's not going to get any better.

You're whole logic just doesn't make any sense.
You say that it's unlikely but not impossible that WiiU is overtracked, since we don't report more units sold than Nintendo shipped.
Now here's the thing. What IF next quarter we report more lifetime to date units sold than Nintendo shipped?
You already said that it's impossible. But how do we then know where it's overtracked and by how much?
According to you we can't, since it would just be wild guesses and due to that we should leave the undoubtedly wrong numbers unchanged on the front page.
That is what would make the site look not credible.



Barozi said:
eva01beserk said:

Thats the thing, nobody knew the ps4 was off untill new info was given, and it even showed how much was off. Do you have info that prooves wii u overtracke aside from speculations, to even sugest by how much? No. there is a need to wait cuz you dont know by how much to reduce anywhere. If ioi sent you that same page but for wii u, where would you atribute the overtracked and by how much? And what information do you have to suport that claim? If nobody has anything, then we wait for nintendos oficial report and untill then just have an idea and be prepared for the real adjustment. Or you rather make the changes now at random to please some while others complain, then after the oficial report have to change it back while others still complain? 

Sony combines PS3+PS4 shipments in their quarterly reports. That makes it much much harder to estimate.
If Sony announced 12m shipped (for PS4 only) instead of 10 million sold back then. It would've been obvious that we're undertracking PS4, since 2.6m on shelves is far too high to be correct.

As others have already mentioned, there are several ways to estimate by how much and where it's overtracked in this very thread. No need to repeat myself or others.

Again, Nintendo doesn't announce sold through numbers. They've given shipment information last month. There's no need to wait, it's not going to get any better.

You're whole logic just doesn't make any sense.
You say that it's unlikely but not impossible that WiiU is overtracked, since we don't report more units sold than Nintendo shipped.
Now here's the thing. What IF next quarter we report more lifetime to date units sold than Nintendo shipped?
You already said that it's impossible. But how do we then know where it's overtracked and by how much?
According to you we can't, since it would just be wild guesses and due to that we should leave the undoubtedly wrong numbers unchanged on the front page.
That is what would make the site look not credible.

I think we both get each other but are unwiling to accept the others point of view as correct. So now we would just go around in circles.



It takes genuine talent to see greatness in yourself despite your absence of genuine talent.

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From my other thread that got locked (will copy paste)

As title suggests, Q2 (April, May and June) show 249k in US and around 122k in Japan. Q3 is showing so far, 141k in US and 95k in Japan. (Current trends in both countries suggest WiiU will fall well below in the US, and pick up a little slack in Japan. Europe is more than likely on par with US, with sales dropping this Q.

Last Q Nintendo shipped 510k WiiU's, but this Q with VGC sales, we're expect 1.1m~ shipped. Why? This certainly goes against Nintendos own prediction of 3.6m for the fiscal year as well.



 

Seece said:
From my other thread that got locked (will copy paste)

As title suggests, Q2 (April, May and June) show 249k in US and around 122k in Japan. Q3 is showing so far, 141k in US and 95k in Japan. (Current trends in both countries suggest WiiU will fall well below in the US, and pick up a little slack in Japan. Europe is more than likely on par with US, with sales dropping this Q.

Last Q Nintendo shipped 510k WiiU's, but this Q with VGC sales, we're expect 1.1m~ shipped. Why? This certainly goes against Nintendos own prediction of 3.6m for the fiscal year as well.


seece it s not obvious for you,that nintendo deliberately set a low forecast ,to exceed it?



tak13 said:
Seece said:
From my other thread that got locked (will copy paste)

As title suggests, Q2 (April, May and June) show 249k in US and around 122k in Japan. Q3 is showing so far, 141k in US and 95k in Japan. (Current trends in both countries suggest WiiU will fall well below in the US, and pick up a little slack in Japan. Europe is more than likely on par with US, with sales dropping this Q.

Last Q Nintendo shipped 510k WiiU's, but this Q with VGC sales, we're expect 1.1m~ shipped. Why? This certainly goes against Nintendos own prediction of 3.6m for the fiscal year as well.


seece it s not obvious for you,that nintendo deliberately set a low forecast ,to exceed it?

When all they've ever done (for the last 7 years) is way over forecast? I believe they can hit around that 3.6m, but this is just people assuming because they don't seem to want to think Nintendo can only ship around 3.6m WiiU's.



 

Seece said:

When all they've ever done (for the last 7 years) is way over forecast? I believe they can hit around that 3.6m, but this is just people assuming because they don't seem to want to think Nintendo can only ship around 3.6m WiiU's.

I'm always surprised investors don't hammer them more for their ridiculous forecasts.  Like when they changed their 3DS forecast from 18m to 13.5m.  It was already Jan 29th when that report went out.  They certainly knew they weren't going to ship 1.85m units by the end of March.  When the quarter is a third over and you are still forecasting a number that is more than three times higher than actual shipments (590k for Q4), they are basically lying to investors.

Or when they were still forecasting 9m for the Wii U on October 30th.  Plus the fact that they haven't hit a single initial hardware forecast for years.

With all that said, they do stand a good chance of hitting 3.6m this fiscal year.



JayWood2010 said:

A Dedicated thread for this rather than derailing threads any further

As others have pointed out the Wii U is tracking is unusually close to the last known shipped numbers.

Wii U

Nintendo global numbers through June 30: 6.68 million
VGC global numbers through June 28: 6.60 million

end of June we have a difference of 60k between shipped and sold, from Mediatecreate/Famitsu we know that 40k of that is in Japan. Leaves 20k for the rest of the entire world.


This would be 80k Units on shelves which is highly unlikely. So the question is, is it overtracked?  If so, by how much?  

ioi, if you're reading this, it should be fixed

Comparing WiiU and Xbox One Numbers http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=189434&page=1#

Another thread that makes a point about WiiU Sales - http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=189405&page=1#


You got it wrong, Nintendo shipped 6.68M as of end of March. Wii U is undertracked by atleast 400K and there is proof and was already pointed out, cant currently find the thread.