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Forums - Gaming - Prediction: WII U Will Still be Ahead of XBOX One in 2017

Seece on 03 September 2014
padib said:
torok said:
X1 is a healthier console because of 3rd party games. 2nd console? Almost no one gets one because keeping one console and buying games for it already takes a lot of money. After Destiny, GTA VI, BF, AC and all the big franchises are launched, X1 will destroy Wii U sales wise with ease. I don't think X1 will have trouble to outsell the Wii U LT by 2:1.

You are looking at weekly numbers, but X1 came a year later. The second year of any console beats its first easily. The first year of X1 beats the first year of the U (it already did that right now). In its second year, the Wii U is behind the X1 and just managing to outsell it marginally weekly because its biggest game was out now. After next week and Destiny, X1 will keep outselling it, even with SSBU.

All those games are coming out on PS4. Destiny being a sci-fi online shooter has more xbox vibe to it so odds are it will do well on that console, but meanwhile the U has smash.

If MK8 was single-handedly able to double the U's baseline, I think something is severely lacking in your PoV. Or maybe you don't want SSB to do so well?

It seems most of the time opinions here are based on what people want to sell well, and not on what makes sense. SSB has never sold less than 7m lifetime, even on the cube. Why would its system-selling and game-selling strength suddenly disappear now?

It makes no sense to me.

Let me word the bolded in another way. MK added 20k to the WiiU baseline every week.

Doesn't sound as impressive as your doubling quote does it? But it gives a much clearer picture.





 

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tak13 on 03 September 2014
torok said:
X1 is a healthier console because of 3rd party games. 2nd console? Almost no one gets one because keeping one console and buying games for it already takes a lot of money. After Destiny, GTA VI, BF, AC and all the big franchises are launched, X1 will destroy Wii U sales wise with ease. I don't think X1 will have trouble to outsell the Wii U LT by 2:1.

You are looking at weekly numbers, but X1 came a year later. The second year of any console beats its first easily. The first year of X1 beats the first year of the U (it already did that right now). In its second year, the Wii U is behind the X1 and just managing to outsell it marginally weekly because its biggest game was out now. After next week and Destiny, X1 will keep outselling it, even with SSBU.


this is the difference , xbone needs a ton of third party games...wii u doesnt(just great and quality first party games,and it will have them,it will also be the console with the most exclusives/first party games ,this a isis a bigger advantage than third party support against xbone, because ps4...is ps4 you know what i mean)!go to see the boost that smas bros brawl gave to wii!plus that many ps4 owners combine   it with wii u,i dont know if xboxone owners doing the same...!



Seece on 03 September 2014
padib said:
Seece said:

Oh I look at what is being said and I can't even begin to agree that 20k in the channel across Europe and NA is possible, like I said that's discontinued system numbers, not something that is selling 50k a week. You can jump through as many hoops as you like to get to whatever excuse you want to use, but it will not make sense.

What do you do about this question, which people raised often and you haven't adequately answered yet:

Retailers were reported to be disgruntled about the sales of the U before MK8 was released. The hypothesis is that retailers stopped backordering WiiU's because they were already having trouble evacuating their current stock and were possibly losing money.

Do you still want to hold on to the that it is a number only reserved for discontinued systems, or are you willing to consider this other case, where the system was selling so poorly before MK8 that retailers will be slow to renew the backorder stream?

We did not hear about mass shortages (just MK bundle shortages which where sent out that Q) it's just a pipe dream and I'm not even going to entertain it anymore. Adjustments will eventually happen because 20k on shelves outside of Japan is not logical in this situation.



 

gergroy on 03 September 2014
KoopaKid said:

I just feel like the Xbox is toast everything that Xbox has 3rd party wise is better on the ps4. And people looking for a second console are going to buy a wii u whether it be a Xbox owner or a ps4. I know im in the minority as wii u is my main console and ps4 is my secondary but hey its an awesome console. Anyways your thoughts? not trying to upset anyone just my opinion I love halo but im not spending 400 dollars and 60 dollars a year for halo.

Sounds about as good as this prediction of yours...

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=183428&page=1

honestly though, I dont see how wii u can sustain a lead without third party support.  Even if they have better versions on the ps4, it will still create more diverse library in the long term than one company can produce.  

I dont know if the xbox will outsell the wii u this year, it has been performing rather badly so far.  However, i cant see wii u maintaining a lead throughout next year...



Seece on 03 September 2014
tak13 said:
torok said:
X1 is a healthier console because of 3rd party games. 2nd console? Almost no one gets one because keeping one console and buying games for it already takes a lot of money. After Destiny, GTA VI, BF, AC and all the big franchises are launched, X1 will destroy Wii U sales wise with ease. I don't think X1 will have trouble to outsell the Wii U LT by 2:1.

You are looking at weekly numbers, but X1 came a year later. The second year of any console beats its first easily. The first year of X1 beats the first year of the U (it already did that right now). In its second year, the Wii U is behind the X1 and just managing to outsell it marginally weekly because its biggest game was out now. After next week and Destiny, X1 will keep outselling it, even with SSBU.


this is the difference , xbone needs a ton of third party games...wii u doesnt(just great and quality first party games,and it will have them,it will also be the console with the most exclusives/first party games ,this a isis a bigger advantage than third party support against xbone, because ps4...is ps4 you know what i mean)!go to see the boost that smas bros brawl gave to wii!plus that many ps4 owners combine   it with wii u,i dont know if xboxone owners doing the same...!

Evidently not. Why don't you allign shipments/sales and see what results come up?

Like I said earlier. Either third parties sell XB1's or MS's first party is more powerful at selling consoles than Nintendo's is. Both can't be true.



 

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Seece on 03 September 2014
padib said:
Seece said:

We did not hear about mass shortages (just MK bundle shortages which where sent out that Q) it's just a pipe dream and I'm not even going to entertain it anymore. Adjustments will eventually happen because 20k on shelves outside of Japan is not logical in this situation.

Those are average numbers. It's possible that in some areas they may have stock in warehouses so there was no shortage despite a surge in U sales.

Why is that not possible?

Also, you may not entertain it anymore, but if you're not answering our questions, why would you be surprised when threads get repeated. You may as well give yourself a hand.

@Henry. Good thing about that video is that there will be some leg meat left for you to eat in the spring.

I already answered, several times. It's not realistic. That's my response.





 

ICStats on 03 September 2014
tak13 said:

can you?lets ask viper...!answer me seece,for example you shipped 400 apples...you sold them all,i.e apples have been sold out!A tracking company claiming that 400 apples have been sold,and showing 400 apples sold in the tracking site,but a man like you doubts it, because the number of the sales is  the same with the number of shippments,however 400 apples have been sold...

The point is what happened in July doesn't affect sales through June.  Tracking through June needs to be fixed.

If VGC overtracked 200k at end of June (Q2), and then tracked everything accurately in July + August (Q3), the end result is still 200k overtracking overall.

Moreover if the assumption VGC overtracked 200k in Q2 that's a pretty high overtrack of ~27%, and if they made the same error in Q3 then overtracking would be about 300k.



My 8th gen collection

Dark_Feanor on 03 September 2014
Scizor_99 said:

I`m not entirely sure, but what I do know is that MIcrosoft has been having the most trouble selling through their units. The PS4 is selling well, and the Wii U has less stock being ordered due to lower demand. The Xbox One has many big titles coming, so it`s better to overship should demand increase dramatically over the holidays than not meet demand and lose a competitive edge. 


Unfortunaly that is not how things works.

Overshipping is a wast of money, time and resources.

Companies spend money trying to predict how the sales will behave and how to have a safe margin of units. Off corse they could be wrong. Microsoft had this kind of problem with the first Surface and had to writgh down a 900mi loss in that quarter. 

But I think it´s hard to be wrong for 3 quarters in a row, without severe consequences. Even Nintendo predicting almost 3x more WiiU sales last year they end up shipping a volume close to the final demand.

This whole discossion over the WiiU and XOne sales is basic based on number we don´t know for sure. Other than shippment number we only have USA and Japan markets (and some times a glimps of major European market).

I´m realy interested in knowing why the WiiU (and the PS4 even) is doing so well in Europe and the XOne doing so bad. When the situation in the USA and Japan are clearly defined: USA price, Japan lack of games.



Seece on 03 September 2014
ICStats said:
tak13 said:

can you?lets ask viper...!answer me seece,for example you shipped 400 apples...you sold them all,i.e apples have been sold out!A tracking company claiming that 400 apples have been sold,and showing 400 apples sold in the tracking site,but a man like you doubts it, because the number of the sales is  the same with the number of shippments,however 400 apples have been sold...

The point is what happened in July doesn't affect sales through June.  Tracking through June needs to be fixed.

If VGC overtracked 200k at end of June, and then tracked everything accurately in July + August, the end result is still 200k overtracking overall.  However more likely, if VGC overtracked 200k at end of June they have carried the same assumptions and overtracked July + August also.

Indeed this. I love how June overtracking gets written off because we don't know what they shipped this Q, as if they're remotely related.



 

Seece on 03 September 2014
padib said:
Seece said:

I already answered, several times. It's not realistic. That's my response.

I went through every post in this thread. For all those related to tracking, here is the summary:

- It's not possible.

- It's discontinued console level ship vs sales.

The only possibly valid argument you've made TO defend those ideas was that there was no report of shortages. Of which I have not been able to verify the claim and to which I've already provided a counter-scenario that you refuse to address.

I hope you understand now why you're not getting favorable attitudes here because it boils down to it's true because I say so.

That's not how people get convinced.

You missed the fact that 20k on shelves with it doing 50k~ the immediate following weeks? Why are you either bothering with this tiresome and obvious argument? If you want to believe 20k on shelves is logical (it isn't, it amounts to (10k) to 190 WiiU's per American State) go right ahead. I won't and most here that have been here for years and know how the system works don't agree with you either.