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Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction - PS4 will have 20 million lead over Xbox One at the end of 2015

toastboy44562 on 15 August 2014
prinz_valium said:

what numbers do u expect?

30m ps4 vs just 10m xb1? seems to low for end of 2015 xb1 numbers
40m ps4 vs 20m xb1? seems to high for end of 2015 ps4 numbers (that would be wii phase)

that leaves 35m vs 15m on the table.
but still a gap >2:1 is carzy


This

Xbox One will be above 10 million this year. The Xbox One will likely hit 20+ million next year. PS4 would have to sell 40+ million which may or may not happen



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drake_tolu on 15 August 2014

Humm...
By end of 2014:
18,500,000 PS4.
8,000,000 XBOX ONE.

End of 2015:
37,000,000 PS4
15,000,000 XBOX ONE

Agree.



Intrinsic on 15 August 2014
daredevil.shark said:
vivster said:
PS4 would have to have one hell of a holiday then. so that would be like making ground like this:

Aug-Nov 3 million
Decemeber 2 million
Jan- Oct 600k per month
November 1 million
December 3 million

Seems quite tough. Or do you have a better breakdown?


Its quite close. But I think PS4 will get even better boost with price cut. Plus bloodborne (not a system seller), uncharted 4 (system seller) and E3 2015 will push it more.

Technically you can't really say a new IP is or isn't a system seller.



kitler53 on 15 August 2014

at first i was like, "you mad" but then i realized you said end of 2015 not by 2015.

 

yeah,.. not an unreasonable prediction.  ps4 will probably end this year with the better part of a 10M lead. 



Rafie on 15 August 2014

Yeah the OP changed it to the end of the year. That's why I said 10 was more doable. By the end of 21015, then 15 million is definitely a go.



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cpg716 on 15 August 2014

PS4 still tracking just behind Wii.. PS4 will have to sell 3 million by Sept 30th to be even. (Could be possible with Destiny release)..

The Wii was at 20 million by end of 2nd Holiday (Can they sell 10m in the next 5 months?).. and 45m by 3rd.. It was just about 20 million ahead of PS3 for that 3rd holiday.. I am not sure we will see the 25 million sales for the PS4 in 2015. Wii attracted the casual gamers in full force that year. Senior citizen homes were buying the Wii, etc.. PS4 will have solid sales for sure, but I am not sure if it will keep pace for 2015 compared to 2008 for the Wii. I am not sure that casual market will be there.

If the PS4 has a price cut for holiday 2015 it could be possible. Should be interesting.



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Predictions on 12/01/15 - Generation 8 Totals:

PS4: 85-95m
X1: 55-65m
WiiU: 20-30m

eva01beserk on 15 August 2014
Aerys said:
Teeqoz said:
Tagging for future fun


Maybe you'll bump the thread to say " wrong prediction,  25M lead finally :) " , with a combination of poor X1 sales during Jan -October until Haloand great PS4 sales ( it works together) , it could be.

Thats what people dont seem to get, after this holidays the x1 has nothing but quantom brake for 10 months. From jan-oct i think the x1 will sell like 2m from that drought. and this year I see the x1 ending at like 8m. So thats like 10m before halo 5 and tomb raider come in and the ps4 should be at around 25m by then and will have at least double the numbers of exclusives for the holiday and will have over four times acoumulated by then.

So yea, I think the x1 will sell badly.



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eva01beserk on 15 August 2014
drake_tolu said:

Humm...
By end of 2014:
18,500,000 PS4.
8,000,000 XBOX ONE.

End of 2015:
37,000,000 PS4
15,000,000 XBOX ONE

Agree.

Did you see that drought of exclusive games for next year for the x1? next year it will be a worse year for the x1. They will not reach 13m. The ps4 will do just what you said. I made a thread about the gape being 3:1 by sometime next year. You should chek it out. If you havent. 

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=188380&page=1# 



It takes genuine talent to see greatness in yourself despite your absence of genuine talent.

daredevil.shark on 15 August 2014
freedquaker said:


According to own predictions I made last year (and still highly reliable), by the end of 2015,

XB1 will have sold : between 11.2 and 17.4 million

PS4 will have sold : between 28.4 and 35.3 million

The gap will be between 13 and 22.7 million

 

Well, although the estimates above are correct with 95% confidence, the ranges are a bit large. I will update the data at the end of 2014, and the ranges will be much smaller.

In summary, your estimate of 20 million seems "POSSIBLE THOUGH NOT VERY LIKELY".

For more info, see : http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=178341&page=1

 


I like your thread.



CDiablo on 15 August 2014

I dont think MS would let it happen, If things were getting that bad a pricecut would certainly happen. I forsee the X1 being sold cheaper(I know about the "soft" pricedrops) than the PS4 if things really skew too far away.



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