VGC numbers are used across the board here. Even if we assume they aren't accurate to reality, they are consistent amongst EACH OTHER, so we can assume that VGC's preorder estimate for games have a tendency to be about 1/10th of the game's life to date sales.

That is true but pre order numbers are often changed at the snap of a finger, who knows where vgchartz thinks the pre orders will be at in a couple weeks.

Hopefully, Bayonetta 2 along with Hyrule Warriors and Smash Bros, awakens the war like spirit that exists in most gamers and drives up sales for all the titles.

Pretty good investigative work. Much more threads here need arguments that are more thorough, like this.

I thought Tropical Freeze was at 570K a while back? Or am i wrong?

I'm with you on this.  VGChartz pre-order numbers are single-handedly the most unreliable source of data on this forum.  They are constantly changing; often filled with errors (games in top 30 that released years ago; games appearing in the top 30 with ~ 40k pre-orders one week only to disappear the next week; no reflection on actual real-world trends) and just generally rubbish.

The OP has done some interesting statistical analysis here, it's just a real shame it's based on something so flimsy and unreliable.

(And in particular, unreliable with niche Japanese games.  I can rely on my go-to example for this:

Persona 4 Golden USA pre-orders:

8

Persona 4: The Golden (PSV) Atlus, Role-Playing

1

10,139

114,201

Persona 4 Golden USA first week sales:

USA First Ten Weeks (Units)

Persona 4 Golden USA first year sales:

Persona 4 Golden USA lifetime sales:

Perhaps VGC have improved their tracking of niche Japanese games in the pre-order charts, but looking through the most recent chart and seeing Tales of Xillia 2 at 94k... I'm guessing probably not)

pretty cool breakdown of previous pre ordered games, will be cool to see if your prediction for Bayo 2 will be in the right ball park.

The bayo 2 + 1 remaster is to good of a deal. I have no doubts this game will sell at least 1.3m by this year alone.

interesting numbers

Don't want to be negative as well I like Nintendo but I think you should apply the same investigation to other 3rd party Wii U titles (outside the launch window).

I think the Wii U is a special case where it wont fit that mold. It most cases I would suspect it do worst. The reason behind it is that the hardware just hasn't really taken off, where as the examples you used are form systems that had by their own right a good popularity.