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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Weekly XB1 overtaking Wii U thread: WIll it happen this year?

 

Who will be on top when January 1, 2015 arrives?

Wii U 810 89.40%
 
Xbox One 93 10.26%
 
Total:903
tbone51 on 08 August 2014
kowenicki said:
tbone51 said:
Seece said:
zorg1000 said:
Seece said:

Just realised WiiU is overtracked too. 6.68m shipped end of June and we have 6.54? 140k on shelves selling 60k a week? nope.

That's about 2 weeks worth of stock.


Ya I think Wii U and Xbox One are both overtracked a bit, I would guess 6.8m and 4.8m respectively.

Basis of XB1 being over? I could believe, just curious as to why you think so.

WiiU definitely over by 100k-200k due to the 60k argument, as for X1, NPD i think has it about 120k-140k less than vgc.

NPD has 360 over 1m less.

But the 360 is still UNDERtracked globally here.


The difference though is that we have an idea of how X1 is doing everywhere else, your suggesting that X1 is undertracked in Europe (or Any other non Europe Country excluding US) which doesn't seem likely at all.

Saying X360 is overtracked/undertracked has nothing to do with X1 unfortunately.



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tbone51 on 08 August 2014
Seece said:
kowenicki said:
tbone51 said:

WiiU definitely over by 100k-200k due to the 60k argument, as for X1, NPD i think has it about 120k-140k less than vgc.

NPD has 360 over 1m less.

But the 360 is still UNDERtracked globally here.


360 is overtracked in US here by 2m.


OH DAMN! Did you see the recent numbers from germany? Wat were they again (vgc vs the real numbers leaked)



tbone51 on 08 August 2014
kowenicki said:
tbone51 said:
 


The difference though is that we have an idea of how X1 is doing everywhere else, your suggesting that X1 is undertracked in Europe (or Any other non Europe Country excluding US) which doesn't seem likely at all.

Saying X360 is overtracked/undertracked has nothing to do with X1 unfortunately.


It has everything to do with the woeful tracking here of xbox hardware in Europe and even worse tracking outside of Europe. 


Germany X360 is overtracked by over 500k so....?

And you really think X1 selling alot better or something in Europe? maybe undertrack, but nothing major



Gammalad on 08 August 2014

Honestly I am starting to think the XBO may never outsell the Wii U at this rate. But we shall see, I am going to assume that Nintendo will go all out with advertising this holiday season with Smash and perhaps other games.



"I think it will be the HDS"-Me in regards to Nintendo's next handheld.

ErwinMoC on 08 August 2014

XB0 will never outsell WU!



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tbone51 on 08 August 2014
kowenicki said:
tbone51 said:
kowenicki said:
tbone51 said:
 


The difference though is that we have an idea of how X1 is doing everywhere else, your suggesting that X1 is undertracked in Europe (or Any other non Europe Country excluding US) which doesn't seem likely at all.

Saying X360 is overtracked/undertracked has nothing to do with X1 unfortunately.


It has everything to do with the woeful tracking here of xbox hardware in Europe and even worse tracking outside of Europe. 


Germany X360 is overtracked by over 500k so....?

And you really think X1 selling alot better or something in Europe? maybe undertrack, but nothing major

So?  So... my point is proven.  The 360 is UNDERTRACKED globally, this is for sure from shipments (the ONLY official data - dont forget all these other sources are tracking by sampling) and yet in two markets we know about it is overtracked here. 

What other proof do you need that VGC tracking is all over the place these days.


Im not disagreeing with that, your suggesting X1 is undertracked outside of the US. Thats how this all started. There is no proof to say it is undertracked especially in Europe. We have Germanany Spot on for example for X1, while US its overtracked. Facts! We dont have other numbers, so it can be under or worse overtracked elsewhere.

Proving X360 #s means nothing.  X360=/=X1



AZWification on 08 August 2014
archbrix said:
Seece said:
I can't really take anyone seriously that says Captain Toad and Bayonetta are going to raise the baseline of WiiU.



The truth hurts! I know, Toad!



                
       ---Member of the official Squeezol Fanclub---

Dr.Henry_Killinger on 08 August 2014

Seriously guys...

Cone is literally like this

I'm not taking any chances

OT: The "Weekly" in the title is only making fun of the frequency this topic is brought up, but we are in the second half of the year. If Sunset Overdrive boosts XB1 baseline into a superb holidays it could be close, with MCC combatting Smash, but then that leaves the smaller titles like Capt Toad and Hyrule Warriors.



In this day and age, with the Internet, ignorance is a choice! And they're still choosing Ignorance! - Dr. Filthy Frank

BlindLoyalty on 08 August 2014

Alt Removed - Mod Team



Viper1 on 08 August 2014
kowenicki said:
Viper1 said:
Seece said:

Sort it out Viper, I'm not changing any goalposts. I already explained the country thing, if you can't understand why I used that that's your own problem. As for shipments, all I know is shipments should surpass WiiU's by September, and then sales will follow in the holiday.


You most certainly did shift the goal posts.  You were losing the debate or else you'd never have brought country by country nor shipments.

 

This is about global sales by the end of the year.   And instead of backing up your claim that the Xbox One will erase a 1.9 million sales deficit, you starting talking about specific countries and then shipments.   You know good and well that channel stuffing can obfuscate actual sales data and MS are known for doing so more than either of the big 3.


Channel stuffing, Overhsipping. etc etc.  Do we still regurgitate this old nonsense?

Love it.

Shipments lead to sales. 

If the One has shipped more than the WiiU then it has sold more to everyone on the planet except those wanting to cling to VGC numbers... which is very difficult to do these days.

Oh... and WiiU is currently overtracked by a couple of hundred K by the way. 

 

Channel stuffing is a real function in product distribution.   Look it up.   I'm not suggesting MS is currently practicing trade overloading but because it can happen (by any of the 3) means you can't rely 100% on shipped figures in the immediate future.  Nintendo seriously stuffed their distribution network with the GC back in late 2002/early 2003.  Most of you think that retailers order directly from the manufacturers but they actually order from distributers and wholesalers (Jack of all Games, Synnex, Mecca, D&H...look them up).  Often these are subsidiaries of the parent supplier but not always and even they usually operate independantly.  They usually try to match up their own orders with orders from retailers but if the parent company or supplier ships more, they'll store them for future sales...again, depending on the reclamation process.

Over a longer term, those shipped products (depending on the method of product reclamation) are indeed eventually sold though it takes a longer period for the shipped figures to come to equilibrium with the sell through figures.  Meaning the shipped figures lose value in short term comparisons.    Only over a long term can you adequately comapre shipment figures with any level of certainty with relation to sell through.

 

And what shipment figures do we have for Xbox One?  We don't know because MS combines them with Xbox 360.   So no matter which system we use, VGC or shipments, we have invalid or incomparable figures.  

We either use VGC, flawed as it is, or shipped data, flawed as it could be, but the ultimate truth is that we can't be certain with either in a short term sales period.  But we must use one or the other for consistancy.  



The rEVOLution is not being televised