Weekly XB1 overtaking Wii U thread: WIll it happen this year?

[Viper1]

kowenicki said:

Viper1 said:

Seece said:

Sort it out Viper, I'm not changing any goalposts. I already explained the country thing, if you can't understand why I used that that's your own problem. As for shipments, all I know is shipments should surpass WiiU's by September, and then sales will follow in the holiday.

You most certainly did shift the goal posts.  You were losing the debate or else you'd never have brought country by country nor shipments.

 

This is about global sales by the end of the year.   And instead of backing up your claim that the Xbox One will erase a 1.9 million sales deficit, you starting talking about specific countries and then shipments.   You know good and well that channel stuffing can obfuscate actual sales data and MS are known for doing so more than either of the big 3.

Channel stuffing, Overhsipping. etc etc.  Do we still regurgitate this old nonsense?

Love it.

Shipments lead to sales. 

If the One has shipped more than the WiiU then it has sold more to everyone on the planet except those wanting to cling to VGC numbers... which is very difficult to do these days.

Oh... and WiiU is currently overtracked by a couple of hundred K by the way. 

 

Channel stuffing is a real function in product distribution.   Look it up.   I'm not suggesting MS is currently practicing trade overloading but because it can happen (by any of the 3) means you can't rely 100% on shipped figures in the immediate future.  Nintendo seriously stuffed their distribution network with the GC back in late 2002/early 2003.  Most of you think that retailers order directly from the manufacturers but they actually order from distributers and wholesalers (Jack of all Games, Synnex, Mecca, D&H...look them up).  Often these are subsidiaries of the parent supplier but not always and even they usually operate independantly.  They usually try to match up their own orders with orders from retailers but if the parent company or supplier ships more, they'll store them for future sales...again, depending on the reclamation process.

Over a longer term, those shipped products (depending on the method of product reclamation) are indeed eventually sold though it takes a longer period for the shipped figures to come to equilibrium with the sell through figures.  Meaning the shipped figures lose value in short term comparisons.    Only over a long term can you adequately comapre shipment figures with any level of certainty with relation to sell through.

 

And what shipment figures do we have for Xbox One?  We don't know because MS combines them with Xbox 360.   So no matter which system we use, VGC or shipments, we have invalid or incomparable figures.  

We either use VGC, flawed as it is, or shipped data, flawed as it could be, but the ultimate truth is that we can't be certain with either in a short term sales period.  But we must use one or the other for consistancy.